Posted on May 8, 2013 by iMFdirect |
By Anoop Singh (Versions in 中文 and 日本語) Fiscal management has improved in Asia over the past decade. It has become more responsive to economic conditions and thereby helped stabilize growth, especially during the global financial crisis. While these are important achievements, major challenges still lie ahead—as our latest Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook points out. What are these […]
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: infrastructure, investment, public spending, reform | Leave a Comment »
Posted on April 29, 2013 by iMFdirect |
By Anoop Singh (Versions in 中文 and 日本語) Emerging economies in Asia have weathered the global financial crisis relatively unscathed and appear to be on track for continued strong growth this year and the next. Perhaps because the region has been doing rather well, policymakers’ concerns have increasingly shifted towards medium-term risks: could growth and fast convergence to […]
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: China, IMF, iMFdirect, India, International Monetry Fund, Korea, Labor, middle income countries, reform, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines | Leave a Comment »
Posted on June 10, 2012 by iMFdirect |
Going forward, while the space for a macroeconomic policy response is smaller than it was entering the global financial crisis, Asia’s policymakers still have ample room to react appropriately to a sharp deleveraging of foreign banks arising from a euro area shock. In addition, capital adequacy ratios, which exceed regulatory norms in most economies, and low nonperforming loan ratios, combined with room to offer liquidity support, suggest that relatively healthy local banking systems should also provide a buffer, as they did in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Globalization, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics, recession | Tagged: Anoop Singh, ASEAN South East Asia, Australia, banks, Bear Stearns, deleveraging, Hong Kong SAR, iMFdirect, Korea, Lehman Brothers, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, United Kingdom | 1 Comment »
Posted on October 31, 2011 by iMFdirect |
Looking beyond growth rates, one challenge that stands out for the Caucasus and Central Asia region as a whole is to create jobs.
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, Middle East | Tagged: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Central Asia, Georgia, jobs, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, skills mismatch, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan | 6 Comments »
Posted on October 13, 2011 by iMFdirect |
Recent large equity sell-offs across Asia and safe haven flows into Japan illustrate perfectly the region’s vulnerabilities to further global shocks. While the region’s fundamentals—built up over the past decade—remain relatively strong, economic uncertainties in Europe and the United States pose large downside risks.
The world economy has entered a dangerous new phase and, as the IMF’s Managing Director stated recently, “what makes the situation all the more urgent is that it has implications for every country.”
Our Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific emphasizes these risks, and stresses the need for policymakers to remain vigilant and nimble in this extraordinarily uncertain climate. The view from here in Tokyo—looking out at the region—may be more serene than the view from other advanced country capitals, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: credit growth, derivative markets, domestic demand, downside risks, economic rebalancing, external shocks, foreign investors, global demand, iMFdirect, inclusive growth, inflation, infrastructure investment, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, overheating, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, stressed banks, unemployment | 1 Comment »
Posted on June 2, 2011 by iMFdirect |
Capital flows emerging Asia should be high on the ‘watch list’ for policymakers in the region. But, perhaps, not in the way we had previously anticipated. Twelve months ago we were keenly attuned to the risks posed by the foreign capital that flooded into Asia from mid-2009 onwards. Now, what we’re seeing is not really all that “exceptional.”
With the recent surge, net overall capital flows to emerging have not surpassed the peaks reached in past episodes of large inflows to the region. Of course, that’s not to say it’s all blue skies. The nature of inflows is different this time—dominated by portfolio flows—and that poses new challenges and risks for policymakers.
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Asian crisis, capital flows, emerging Asia, external buffers, financial risk, financial stability, global financial crisis, Macroeconomic policies, macroprudential policies, monetary policy, monetary transmission, overheating, portfolio flows, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, risky assets | Leave a Comment »
Posted on May 11, 2011 by iMFdirect |
Much of the debate over global rebalancing has focused on the U.S.-China trade imbalance. But that’s missing the bigger picture. With the growth of cross-border supply chains—a signature feature of Asia’s trade in recent decades—it would be misleading to focus on bilateral imbalances and exchange rates.
Instead of specializing in producing certain types of final goods, Asian exporters increasingly have specialized in certain stages of production and become vertically integrated with each other. So, as Asia’s economies strive to rebalance their growth models, we need to understand better how the regional supply chain affects the way exchange rates and shifts in global demand work.
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Asian integration, capital goods, competitiveness, cross-border supply chains, economic imbalances, effective exchange rate, exchange rates, global rebalancing, intermediate good imports, intermediate inputs, production disruptions, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, regional integration, trade integration, trade partners, vertical integration | 1 Comment »
Posted on May 5, 2011 by iMFdirect |
Medium-term economic growth prospects in the Caucasus and Central Asia region are strong. But, to secure ongoing prosperity, the eight countries of the region—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—will need to look beyond traditional sources of growth.
The challenge for policymakers will be to foster new and more diverse growth drivers, outside mining, oil, and gas. There are seven policy pillars that can help them do that, including strengthening economic and financial ties within the region.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bank financing, business environment, Caucasus and Central Asia, commodity prices, diversify growth, economic growth, foreign investment, global financial crisis, global recovery, governance, inequality, international trade, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, regional integration, sustainable growth, trade liberalization, unemployment | 3 Comments »