Africa and the Great Recession: Changing Times

Posted on May 14, 2012 by iMFdirect

Sub-Saharan Africa’s solid growth record has been supported by several factors, including significantly less civil conflict, the generally favorable commodity price developments benefiting Africa’s natural resource exporters; and the extensive debt relief provided to most highly-indebted poor countries. But I would ascribe key importance to sound policy choices by African governments – both in terms of pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies and pressing ahead with important reform measures.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Fiscal Consolidation: Striking the Right Balance

Posted on May 8, 2012 by iMFdirect

The debate on austerity vs. growth has gained in intensity, as countries in Europe and elsewhere struggle with low growth, high debt, and rising unemployment. In essence, policymakers are being asked to tackle a continuation of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. This would be no easy task under any circumstances. But it is made considerably harder by the fact that a number of countries need to engage in fiscal consolidation simultaneously. Complicating the picture further is the fact that monetary policy in most advanced economies is approaching the limits of what it technically can do to stimulate activity, while global growth remains weak.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, Public debt, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

How to Get the Balance Right: Fiscal Policy At a Time of Crisis

Posted on May 6, 2012 by iMFdirect

The crisis has harmed growth, increased unemployment, and left a large number of people less protected. We are now seeing some signs of stabilization. Most countries are reducing their deficits and even if debt ratios are still rising, the return back to fiscal health has begun.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Financial sector supervision, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Jobs and Growth: Can’t Have One Without the Other?

Posted on April 30, 2012 by iMFdirect

Five years after the onset of the Great Recession, 16 million more people are likely to remain unemployed this year than in 2007. This estimate is for a set of countries for which the IMF forecasts unemployment rates; adding in some countries for which the International Labour Organization provides forecasts only boosts the number. The bulk of this increase in unemployed people has been in the so-called advanced economies (the IMF’s term for countries with high per capita incomes).

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, G-20, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

The Art of Shifting Gear

Posted on April 27, 2012 by iMFdirect

The fact is, the global outlook underpins any turnaround in Asia and at this point, it could go either way: too early to declare victory over the forces of financial volatility and contagion. The art then is being prepared for either eventuality and policymakers should be ready to shift gears if, and when, circumstances warrant.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Spring Is in the Air in Parts of Latin America

Posted on April 25, 2012 by iMFdirect

Most of Latin America stands out from much of the rest of the world—not for great economic performance, but for good performance in a subpar environment. Growth is generally solid, despite a slowdown late last year owing to policy tightening and global volatility. Under our baseline scenario, we expect regional growth to moderate to near 3¾ percent in 2012, down from 4½ percent last year (but modestly up from our January projections).

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Top Links from the IMF – Global and Regional Economic Analysis for April

Posted on April 22, 2012 by iMFdirect

The IMF and World Bank have just wrapped up their Spring Meetings for April, dominated by agreement on a huge boost to the anti-crisis firewall to prevent contagion in the event of a flare-up.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Making Goldilocks Happy

Posted on April 20, 2012 by iMFdirect

We have calculated that an increase in annual long-term economic growth of just a quarter of a percentage point could set in place a virtuous circle that would lead, after ten years, to a decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio by 6 percentage points. This is because higher growth makes it easier to run a primary surplus and lowers the public debt-to-GDP ratio directly. This in turn lowers the interest rate, which in turn boosts economic growth.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Global Financial Stability: What’s Still To Be Done?

Posted on April 18, 2012 by iMFdirect

The quest for lasting financial stability is still fraught with risks. The latest Global Financial Stability Report has two key messages: policy actions have brought gains to global financial stability since our September report; but current policy efforts are not enough to achieve lasting stability, both in Europe and some other advanced economies, in particular the United States and Japan.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, G-20, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Mediocre Growth, High Risks, and The Long Road Ahead

Posted on April 17, 2012 by iMFdirect

Geopolitical tension affecting the oil market is surely a risk. The main risk remains, however, that of another acute crisis in Europe. The building of the “firewalls”, when it is completed, will represent major progress. By themselves, however, firewalls cannot solve the difficult fiscal, competitiveness, and growth issues that some of these countries face. Bad news on the macroeconomic or the political front still carries the risk of triggering the type of dynamics we saw last fall.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Public debt, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

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