Posted on April 27, 2015 by iMFdirect
By James Daniel and Rachel van Elkan
Since mid-2014, diversity and divergence—applying to countries’ economic situations, policies and performance—have dominated global economic discussions. Differing economic performance in major advanced countries has led to divergent monetary policies.
Both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have started significant expansions of their balance sheets, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has ended its bond-buying program and is expected to start raising rates. This has had many effects, in particular, contributing to a sharp depreciation of the Yen and the Euro against the U.S. dollar (see chart 1).
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: Australia, Bank of Japan, capital flows, China, European Central Bank, exchange rate, exports, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, macroprudential policy, Malaysia, monetary policy, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, trade, U.S. Federal Reserve | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 23, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Sabina Bhatia
Washington is at its best in the spring. Green shoots pop out, daffodils and magnolias are in full bloom and the cherry blossoms cast a pink halo over the city. After a long, cold winter, there is hope everywhere.
And so it was with the 2015 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Hope was in the air—would the global economy avoid the “new mediocre” from becoming the “new reality?” Would Greece reach agreement with its creditors? Would there be progress on IMF governance reform?
Filed under: Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Civil Society, Economic outlook, Employment, Europe, Global Governance, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Multilateral Cooperation, Reform | Tagged: Christine Lagarde, Civil Society, civil society organizations, Climate change, ebola, gender, IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, inequality, infrastructure, Oxfam, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By iMFdirect editors
All happy countries are alike; each unhappy country is unhappy in its own way.
This twist on Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina echoed through the seminars during the IMF’s Spring Meetings as most countries, while recovering, are struggling with the prospect of lower potential growth and the “new mediocre” becoming a “new reality.”
Our editors fanned out to cover what officials and civil society had to say about how to help countries pave their own path to happiness.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: Africa, Asia, Climate change, commodiity prices, development financing, fuel price subsidy, global economy, IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, inflation, infrastructure, islamic finance, Middle East and North Africa, Millennium Development Goals, oil prices, public debt, Spring Meetings, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 15, 2015 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
(Versions in عربي and Español)
The three main messages from this Global Financial Stability Report are:
- Risks to the global financial system have risen since October and have rotated to parts of the financial system where they are harder to assess and harder to address.
- Advanced economies need to enhance the traction of monetary policies to achieve their goals, while managing undesirable financial side effects of low interest rates.
- To withstand the global crosscurrents of lower oil prices, rising U.S. policy rates, and a stronger dollar, emerging markets must increase the resilience of their financial systems by addressing domestic vulnerabilities.
Let me now discuss these findings in detail.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: Africa, Bank of Japan, emerging market, euro area, European Central Bank, financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, Greece, interest rates, liquidity, Middle East, monetary policy, oil prices, Russia, Ukraine, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 14, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in عربي and Español)
In our April 2015 World Economic Outlook, we forecast global growth to be roughly the same this year than last year, 3.5% versus 3.4%. This global number reflects an increase in growth in advanced economies, 2.4% versus 1.8%, offset by a decrease in growth in emerging market and developing economies, 4.3% versus 4.6% last year. In short, to repeat the words used by the IMF Managing Director last week, we see growth as “moderate and uneven”.
Behind these numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world economy. Some, such as the decline in the price of oil and the evolution of exchange rates, are highly visible. Some, from crisis legacies to lower potential growth, play more of a role behind the scene but are important nevertheless. Let me briefly review them.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Middle East, Reform | Tagged: Brazil, China, euro area crisis, exchange rate, forecast, Greece, India, infrastructure, investment, Japan, Middle East, oil exporters, oil importers, oil prices, Olivier Blanchard, Russia, Ukraine, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 6, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Mohamed Norat, Marco Pinon and Zeine Zeidane
(Versions in عربي)
Since the global financial crisis, policymakers have sought to press the “reset” button to strengthen financial intermediation that is performed by conventional banks and non-bank financial institutions. The aim has been to address the fault lines that helped trigger one of the most devastating financial crises in a century, and to enable a more inclusive, stable financial system that promotes stability as well as economic development and growth.
Islamic finance offers several features that are consistent with these objectives. Islamic finance refers to financial services that conform with Islamic jurisprudence, or Shari’ah, which bans interest, speculation, gambling and short-sales; requires fair treatment; and institutes sanctity of contracts. And these principles hold the promise of supporting financial stability, since a key tenet of Islamic finance is that lenders should share in both the risks and rewards of the projects and loans they finance.
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial regulation, Fiscal policy, Globalization, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Middle East | Tagged: Asia, financial crisis, Hong Kong, Islamic banking, islamic finance, Luxembourg, Middle East, real estate, senegal, Shariah, South Africa, sukuk, tax, United Kingdom | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Changyong Rhee
(Versions in 日本語)
Abenomics can succeed, despite recent setbacks to growth and inflation, in revitalizing Japan by making steadfast progress on all three of its arrows equally and simultaneously, as we show in our new book. This is also essential to avoid an undue weakening of the yen and ensure positive spillovers to Japan’s neighbors, its region, and the global economy.
The Legacy: Structural Changes During the Lost Decades
Most Japan followers will be familiar with the following striking statistic: in 2013, Japan’s level of nominal GDP was about 6 percent below its mid 1990s level. During this period, three important structural changes have been a brake on growth and efforts to get out of deflation: Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Abenomics, Bank of Japan, deflation, deleveraging, inflation, investment, Japan, labor market, small and medium-sized enterprises, structural changes, structural reform, subsidiaries | Leave a comment »