Posted on February 7, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Prakash Loungani
(Version in Español)
Over 200 million people are unemployed around the globe today, over a fifth of them in advanced economies. Unemployment rates in these economies shot up at the onset of the Great Recession and, five years later, remain very high. Some argue that this is to be expected given that the economy remains well below trend and press for greater easing of macroeconomic policies (e.g. Krugman, 2011, Kocherlakota (2014)). Others suggest that the job losses, particularly in countries like Spain and Ireland, have been too large to be explained by developments in output, and may largely reflect structural problems in their labor markets. Even in the United States, where unemployment rates have fallen over the past year, there is concern that increasing numbers of people are dropping out of the labor force, thus decoupling jobs and growth.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, growth, International Monetary Fund, recession | Tagged: Austria, employment, Great Recession, Ireland, Italy, jobs, labor force, labor market, Prakash Loungani, Spain, structural reform, unemployed, unemployment, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 30, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(Version in Español, Português)
Looking to the year ahead, how do we see the global economic landscape, and what will this mean for our region? This question is especially on people’s minds today, given the risks of deflation in advanced economies and of sustained turbulence in emerging markets.
Despite these risks, we expect that the region will grow a little faster than last year—increasing from 2.6 percent in 2013 to 3 percent in 2014. Stronger global demand is one part of the story, but not the whole story; volatility is likely to be a significant feature of the landscape ahead. And regional growth rates will still be in low gear compared to historical trends, and downside risks to growth remain. So, let’s start with the global scene.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Alejandro Werner, Argentina, Brazil, Caribbean, Central America, Chile, Colombia, financial market, inflation, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, South America, tourism, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Western Hemisphere | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 23, 2014 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
Brisbane and Basel may be 10,000 miles apart, but when it comes to financial regulation the two cities will be standing cheek by jowl.
At the next summit of the Group of Twenty advanced and emerging economies, to be held in Brisbane in November, political leaders will take the pulse of the global financial regulatory reform agenda, launched five years ago. The explicit goal of the Australian G-20 presidency is to finally complete these essential reforms. As Prime Minister Tony Abbott said today in Davos, “Financial regulation is always a work-in-progress, but these reforms now need to be finalized in ways that promote confidence without eliminating risk.”
I strongly support this extra push to create a safer financial system that can better support the needs of the real economy, and better protect taxpayers. For far too long, critics have been able to portray the G-20 reform agenda as a regulatory supertanker stuck in the shallow waters of technical complexity, financial industry pushback, and diverging national views. This image is increasingly off the mark.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: Basel III, Ben Bernanke, Davos, economic reform, European Union, Financial Stability Board, G-20, global financial system, Japan, José Viñals, U.S. Fed, United Kingdom, United States, United States Federal Reserve | 3 Comments »
Posted on January 22, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Min Zhu
(Version in Français, Русский, 日本語, Português, عربي and 中文)
We had a big debate on emerging markets’ growth prospects at our Annual Meetings in October 2013. We lowered our 2013 growth forecast for emerging markets and developing economies by a whopping 0.5 percentage points compared to our earlier forecast. Some argued that we were too pessimistic. Others said that we should have stuck with the lower-growth scenario we had devised at the onset of the global financial crisis.
Fast forward to today. Indeed, most recent figures indicate that the engines of global growth—emerging markets and developing economies—have slowed significantly. Their growth rate dropped about 3 percentage points in 2013 from 2010 levels, with more than two thirds of countries seeing a decline— Brazil, China, and India lead the pack. This is important for the global economy, since these economies generate half of today’s global economic activity.
In my more recent travels around the world—five regions on three continents—I received the same questions everywhere: what is happening with the emerging markets? Is the slowdown permanent? Can emerging markets boost their growth? What are the downside risks?
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Brazil, central banks, China, commodiity prices, India, Indonesia, interest rates, international trade, Turkey | 1 Comment »
Posted on January 21, 2014 by iMFdirect
By: Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in Español عربي, Русский, Français, and 中文 )
I want to take a moment today to remember our colleague Wabel Abdallah, who was our resident representative in Afghanistan and who, as many of you know, was killed in the terrorist attack in Kabul on Friday. We are mourning a colleague, a friend to many of us, above all a dedicated civil servant who represented the best the Fund has to offer, and gave his life in the line of duty, helping the Afghan people. Our hearts go out to his family and to the many victims of this brutal attack.
Let me now turn to our update of the World Economic Outlook and distill its three main messages:
First, the recovery is strengthening. We forecast world growth to increase from 3% in 2013 to 3.7% in 2014. We forecast growth in advanced economies to increase from 1.3% in 2013 to 2.2% in 2014. And we forecast growth in emerging market and developing economies to increase from 4.7% in 2013 to 5.1% in 2014.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, growth | Tagged: China, Europe, fiscal consolidation, forecast, France, Germany, global outlook, Japan, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, Southern Europe, unemployment, United Kingdom, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 16, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(Version in Español and Português)
Some basic realities seem to be getting lost in the debate over the Fed’s “exit” from unconventional monetary policy and its impact on Latin America.
First, the still-loose stance makes sense. U.S. inflation is too low, the output gap too large, and the labor market too weak. And even during tapering, the Fed’s stance will remain highly loose. The 10-year Treasury rate, adjusted for core inflation, is about 230 basis points below its 30-year average and the inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate is 320 basis points below. These rates are likely to remain below their 30-year average for at least the next two to three years.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Español, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries | Tagged: capital flows, financial stability, inflation, Latin America, monetary policy, U.S., U.S. Fed | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 27, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Martin Kaufman and Mercedes García-Escribano
(Version in Español and Português)
Since the early 2000s, Brazil’s economy has grown at a robust clip, with growth in 2010 reaching 7.5 percent—its strongest in a quarter of a century. A key pillar of its hard-won economic success has been sound economic policies and the adoption of far-reaching social programs, which resulted in a substantial decline in poverty.
In the last couple of years Brazil’s growth slowed down. Although other emerging market economies experienced a similar slowdown, the growth outturns in Brazil were particularly disappointing. And the measures taken to stimulate the economy did not produce a sustained recovery. This is because unleashing sustained growth in Brazil requires measures geared not at stimulating domestic demand but at changing the composition of demand towards investment and at increasing productivity.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Español, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Português, Public debt | Tagged: Article IV, Brazil, BRICs, fiscal consolidation, infrastructure, macroeconomic policy, recovery, unemployment | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 19, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Version in Español)
Two weeks ago, the IMF organized a major research conference, in honor of Stanley Fischer, on lessons from the crisis. Here is my take. I shall focus on what I see as the lessons for monetary policy, but before I do this, let me mention two other important conclusions.
One, having your macro house in order pays off when there is an (external) crisis. In contrast to previous episodes, wise fiscal policy before this crisis gave emerging market countries the room to pursue countercyclical fiscal policies during the crisis, and this made a substantial difference.
Second, after a financial crisis, it is essential to rapidly clean up and recapitalize the banks. This did not happen in Japan in the 1990s, and was costly. But it did happen in the US in this crisis, and it helped the recovery.
Now let me now turn to monetary policy, and touch on three issues: the implications of the liquidity trap, the provision of liquidity, and the management of capital flows.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: capital flows, exchange rate, financial crisis, fiscal policy, IMF Annual Research Conference, IMF Jacques Polak Research Conference, inflation, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, Paul Krugman, stanley Fischer | 2 Comments »
Posted on November 12, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
(Versions in عربي)
Two days ago, I had the pleasure of visiting Kuwait, a member country of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It was a whirlwind visit, with many places to see and people to meet, in a thriving corner of the global economy. Kuwait has extended to me its emblematic tradition of hospitality— a testament to its ancient and noble culture. I was awed by the magnificent artifacts of the al-Sabah collection, which I saw in the beautifully restored Dar al-Athar al-Islamiyyah cultural center.
Back to economics. The member countries of the council—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—have some of world’s highest living standards. The region has also become a major destination for foreign workers and a source of remittances for their families back home. And it is a financial center and a hub for international trade and business services.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, عربي | Tagged: Bahrain, Christine Lagarde, economic growth, education, GCC, Kuwait, MENA, Middle East, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates | 4 Comments »
Posted on November 6, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Michael Keen
(Version in Español, Français and 中文)
Last night, when you went to bed, you left $40 on the kitchen table. When you woke up this morning, you found only $30—and a note from the government saying, “Thank you very much, we took $10 as a tax payment.” This is, of course, extremely irritating. To an economist, however, it’s close to an ideal form of taxation, since there is nothing you can now do to reduce, avoid, or evade it—the holy grail of what economists call a non-distorting tax.
(This doesn’t mean that you won’t react in some way. Being worse off, you may now work a bit more, or save a bit less. But any other tax raising $1 would make you even worse off, because it would change relative prices (a tax on your earnings would make working less attractive, for instance), and so take your choices even further from those you would make in the absence of taxation.)
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, Financial sector supervision, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: capital levy, debt, Fiscal Monitor, tax cuts, tax policy, taxation | Leave a comment »