Escaping the Resource Curse

Posted on May 16, 2012 by iMFdirect

In our study, we analyze how fiscal frameworks for resource-rich countries be made more flexible in practice from a practitioner’s perspective, proposing specific options to effectively anchor fiscal policy while allowing for a sustainable scaling up of spending in the context of increased resource revenue.

Filed under: Africa, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, Inequality, Investment, Latin America, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Africa and the Great Recession: Changing Times

Posted on May 14, 2012 by iMFdirect

Sub-Saharan Africa’s solid growth record has been supported by several factors, including significantly less civil conflict, the generally favorable commodity price developments benefiting Africa’s natural resource exporters; and the extensive debt relief provided to most highly-indebted poor countries. But I would ascribe key importance to sound policy choices by African governments – both in terms of pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies and pressing ahead with important reform measures.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?

Posted on May 10, 2012 by iMFdirect

Policymakers and analysts in the region should be vigilant about rapidly growing mortgage credit and home prices because, as we know too well, they can create financial instability. Latin America has a long history of credit booms gone wrong and experience shows that while credit-driven asset price bubbles build slowly they can sour quickly. But then again, Latin America has a large housing deficit, so construction activity should be catching up as living standards improve and mortgage credit deepens from its very low base. A proper assessment of the situation is hindered by the limited and weak information available for the real estate sector in Latin America.

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Fiscal Consolidation: Striking the Right Balance

Posted on May 8, 2012 by iMFdirect

The debate on austerity vs. growth has gained in intensity, as countries in Europe and elsewhere struggle with low growth, high debt, and rising unemployment. In essence, policymakers are being asked to tackle a continuation of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. This would be no easy task under any circumstances. But it is made considerably harder by the fact that a number of countries need to engage in fiscal consolidation simultaneously. Complicating the picture further is the fact that monetary policy in most advanced economies is approaching the limits of what it technically can do to stimulate activity, while global growth remains weak.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, Public debt, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Jobs and Growth: Can’t Have One Without the Other?

Posted on April 30, 2012 by iMFdirect

Five years after the onset of the Great Recession, 16 million more people are likely to remain unemployed this year than in 2007. This estimate is for a set of countries for which the IMF forecasts unemployment rates; adding in some countries for which the International Labour Organization provides forecasts only boosts the number. The bulk of this increase in unemployed people has been in the so-called advanced economies (the IMF’s term for countries with high per capita incomes).

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, G-20, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Arab Countries in Transition Under the Spotlight

Posted on April 29, 2012 by iMFdirect

Historic transitions in several Arab countries are coming under increasing strain. Domestic uncertainty over the countries’ future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth in 2011, and the current year will be equally challenging. A joint and sustained effort is needed to help these countries navigate through this challenging period and set out an economic vision that is fair and inclusive.

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Financial regulation, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

The Art of Shifting Gear

Posted on April 27, 2012 by iMFdirect

The fact is, the global outlook underpins any turnaround in Asia and at this point, it could go either way: too early to declare victory over the forces of financial volatility and contagion. The art then is being prepared for either eventuality and policymakers should be ready to shift gears if, and when, circumstances warrant.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Top Links from the IMF – Global and Regional Economic Analysis for April

Posted on April 22, 2012 by iMFdirect

The IMF and World Bank have just wrapped up their Spring Meetings for April, dominated by agreement on a huge boost to the anti-crisis firewall to prevent contagion in the event of a flare-up.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Making Goldilocks Happy

Posted on April 20, 2012 by iMFdirect

We have calculated that an increase in annual long-term economic growth of just a quarter of a percentage point could set in place a virtuous circle that would lead, after ten years, to a decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio by 6 percentage points. This is because higher growth makes it easier to run a primary surplus and lowers the public debt-to-GDP ratio directly. This in turn lowers the interest rate, which in turn boosts economic growth.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Mediocre Growth, High Risks, and The Long Road Ahead

Posted on April 17, 2012 by iMFdirect

Geopolitical tension affecting the oil market is surely a risk. The main risk remains, however, that of another acute crisis in Europe. The building of the “firewalls”, when it is completed, will represent major progress. By themselves, however, firewalls cannot solve the difficult fiscal, competitiveness, and growth issues that some of these countries face. Bad news on the macroeconomic or the political front still carries the risk of triggering the type of dynamics we saw last fall.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Public debt, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

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