Posted on December 15, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Gregorio Impavido and Uffe Mikkelsen
(Version in Türk)
Turkey is going through a time of economic transition, with slowing growth that risks the country being caught in a “middle-income trap,” unable to join the ranks of high income economies.
The country grew at 6 percent per year on average in the period 2010-13, with policies supportive of domestic consumption. This has generated a large current account deficit, mostly financed by short-term capital flows. The reliance on consumption at the expense of investment, slow export growth, and sizable investment needs have hurt potential growth, with the economy already growing more modestly. Moreover, Turkey’s low domestic savings and competitiveness challenges have limited investment as well as exports, which have also suffered from the slow growth in Europe.
With current policies, Turkey’s economy is expected to grow only 3.5 percent annually over the next five years. Going forward, the economy must be rebalanced to make it more competitive and to restore output and employment growth.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: Article IV, banking sector, economic rebalancing, Europe, fiscal policy, inflation, Macroeconomic policies, middle income countries, savings, Turkey | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 26, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven, and Esteban Vesperoni
The last five years have been a reminder of the importance of interconnections and risks in the global economy. They have triggered intense discussions on the optimal way to combine fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to deal with spillovers, and on the need and the scope for coordination of such policies.
The IMF’s 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, which took place in Washington DC on November 13 and 14, 2014, focused on Cross-Border Spillovers, and took stock of what we know and do not know. The summary below picks and chooses some papers, and does not do justice to the full set of papers presented and discussed at the conference. They can all be downloaded, and videos of each session are available, at www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2014/arc.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, G-20, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: banks, capital flows, European Central Bank, exchange rate, Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, G-20, global economy, global trade, IMF Annual Research Conference, Italy, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, public spending, Spain, spillovers, unconventional monetary policy, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 24, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Sean Hagan
(version in Español)
To restructure or not to restructure? That is a question few governments would like to face. Yet, if a country does find itself with an unsustainable debt burden, one way or another, it will have to be restructured. And if that time comes, it is better for the debtor, creditors, and the entire financial system that the restructuring be carried out in a prompt, predictable, and orderly manner.
The global financial crisis ushered in a new wave of sovereign debt crises that has reinvigorated discussions over the current framework for sovereign debt restructuring. The experience with Greece’s debt restructuring in 2012 and the ongoing litigation involving Argentina, in particular, provide a salutary reminder that vulnerabilities remain.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic research, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, Latin America, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: Argentina, bonds, debt restructuring, financial restructuring, government debt, Greece, Kazakhstan, Mexico, sovereign debt, U.S. Treasury, Vietnam | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 19, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani
(version in Español, Français, 中文, Русский, عربي, 日本語)
Unemployment is a global problem. If the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. Of the nearly 200 million people around the world looking for work, half are in emerging markets and about a quarter in advanced economies, reflecting the growing weight of emerging markets in the global labor force (Figure 1).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, unemployment | Tagged: advanced economies, emerging economies, frontier economies, G20, gowth, infrastructure, job creation, jobs, labor force, Russia, unemployment, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 12, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven and Esteban Vesperoni
The global crisis—which challenged paradigms about the functioning of financial markets and had significant consequences in other markets—and the sluggish recovery since 2009, are a reminder of the importance of understanding interconnections and risks in the global economy. The increasing trend in global trade, and even more significant, in cross-border financial activities, suggests that spillovers can take many different forms.
The understanding of transmission channels of spillovers has become essential, not only from an academic perspective, but also policymaking. The challenges faced by policy coordination after the initial response to the crisis in 2009—illustrated by the debate on the impact of unconventional monetary policy in emerging economies—raise wide ranging issues on fiscal, monetary, and financial policies.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, IMF, Politics | Tagged: capital flows, central banks, European Central Bank, exchange rate, Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, Olivier Blanchard, sovereign debt, spillovers, surveillance, trade, U.S. monetary policy, unconventional monetary policy | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 7, 2014 by iMFdirect
What a difference 25 years can make. The fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 was a day that changed world history and transformed Europe.
Central and Eastern Europe embarked on a historic transition from communism to capitalism and democracy. We thought this landmark anniversary was a good time to look back at the achievements and also forward to the future, as we do in a new IMF report on 25 Years of Transition. The IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton also gave a recent speech in Warsaw, Poland on this important chapter in history.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Europe, Global Governance, Globalization | Tagged: advanced economies, Berlin Wall, David Lipton, eastern Europe, euro area, Europe, Germany, video | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 22, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Rabah Arezki
(version in Español)
Natural gas is creating a new reality for economies around the world. Three major developments of the past few years have thrust natural gas into the spotlight: the shale gas revolution in the United States, the reduction in nuclear power supply following the Fukushima disaster in Japan, and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Over the last decade, the discovery of massive quantities of unconventional gas resources around the world has transformed global energy markets, and reshaped the geography of global energy trade (see map). Consumption of natural gas now accounts for nearly 25 percent of global primary energy consumption. Meanwhile, the share of oil has declined from 50 percent in 1970 to about 30 percent today.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics | Tagged: energy prices, Fukushima disaster, gas supply, Japan, natural gas, Russia, shale gas, Ukraine, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »