Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?

Policymakers and analysts in the region should be vigilant about rapidly growing mortgage credit and home prices because, as we know too well, they can create financial instability. Latin America has a long history of credit booms gone wrong and experience shows that while credit-driven asset price bubbles build slowly they can sour quickly. But then again, Latin America has a large housing deficit, so construction activity should be catching up as living standards improve and mortgage credit deepens from its very low base. A proper assessment of the situation is hindered by the limited and weak information available for the real estate sector in Latin America.

Arab Countries in Transition Under the Spotlight

Historic transitions in several Arab countries are coming under increasing strain. Domestic uncertainty over the countries’ future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth in 2011, and the current year will be equally challenging. A joint and sustained effort is needed to help these countries navigate through this challenging period and set out an economic vision that is fair and inclusive.

Global Financial Stability: What’s Still To Be Done?

The quest for lasting financial stability is still fraught with risks. The latest Global Financial Stability Report has two key messages: policy actions have brought gains to global financial stability since our September report; but current policy efforts are not enough to achieve lasting stability, both in Europe and some other advanced economies, in particular the United States and Japan.

Debt Hangover: Nonperforming Loans in Europe’s Emerging Economies

In emerging Europe, the share of loans classified as nonperforming—many of them household mortgages—have exploded from 3 percent before the crisis to 13 percent at the peak. NPLs in some parts of the Baltics and Balkans are already at par with previous financial crises elsewhere. Our analysis finds evidence that nonperforming loans are indeed a serious drag on credit supply and economic growth. They drive up banks’ funding costs and interest margins, and at the same time drain their profits and capital. On the credit demand side, over-extended households and businesses are reluctant to consume and invest.

“Macro…, what?!” The New Buzz on Financial Stability

When carefully implemented, macroprudential policy can become a cornerstone of financial stability policy. The dictionary of financial lingo has been given an important new entry.

The Case for a Managed Float under Inflation Targeting

It is often claimed that inflation targeting , to be successful, needs to include a high degree of exchange rate flexibility, with the policy rate geared to stabilizing inflation and the exchange rate allowed to fluctuate freely. But a new paper from the IMF examines the case for using two policy instruments—the policy interest rate and sterilized foreign exchange market intervention—in emerging market countries aiming to maintain low inflation while avoiding the damage that large and abrupt currency movements may engender. It argues that in a world of volatile capital movements, and sharp ups and downs in exchange rates, there are important benefits to making use of all available policy instruments, both from a single country’s perspective, and from a global standpoint. Provided policymakers are clear about their objectives, there is no conflict between an inflation targeting framework and making use of the foreign exchange market intervention instrument to attenuate deviations of exchange rates.

Lagarde: “World Economy Not Out of Danger Zone”

“Derailment of the global recovery, which was a clear and distinct danger a few months ago, has been avoided for now thanks to strong policy measures–in particular those of the European Central Bank–and strengthened governance in the euro area, and reforms and adjustment in countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece,” Lagarde said. “High frequency indicators also now suggest an uptick in activity, mostly in the United States.”

Get the Basics in Economics from the IMF’s One-Stop Shop

The IMF’s Finance & Development magazine has just come out with a useful web compilation of stories in its Back to Basics series on economics. The page is aimed at students, academics, and those seeking a broader understanding of economic ideas. It pulls together articles from the “Back to Basics” column in the quarterly magazine that have been published since 2003.

Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On

The world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicenter of the danger is Europe, but the rest of the world is increasingly affected.

Central Banks, Financial Regulators, and the Quest for Financial Stability: 2011 IMF Annual Research Conference

The global financial crisis gave economists pause for thought about what should be the future of macroeconomic policy. We have devoted much of our thinking to this issue these past three years, including how the many policy instruments work together.

The interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies, in particular, remain hotly debated. This topic goes to the core of central banks’ mandates, and their role in achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. While the financial crisis triggered a fundamental rethinking of these issues, much research—both conceptual and empirical—remains to be done.

I hope this year’s IMF Annual Research Conference will contribute to expanding the frontier of knowledge on this topic.

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