Support the People, Not Energy in the Middle East and North Africa

Posted on March 27, 2013 by iMFdirect

Masood AhmedBy Masood Ahmed

(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)

Of all the regions in the world, the Middle East and North Africa region stands out as the one that relies the most on generalized energy subsidies. In energy-rich countries, governments provide subsidies to their populations as a way of sharing the natural resource wealth. In the region’s energy-importing countries, governments use subsidies to offer people some relief from high commodity prices, especially since social safety nets are often weak.

The question is: does this well-intended social protection policy represent the most efficient way to channel aid to the most vulnerable? The answer is no!

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Filed under: Emerging Markets, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Investment, Middle East, Politics, عربي | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Time For A Spring Cleaning: The Global Economy Will Thank You

Posted on February 25, 2013 by iMFdirect

Jose Vinals

by José Viñals

Version in Español

It is still winter in the northern hemisphere, but there is never a bad time for spring cleaning. I suggest that policymakers de-clutter their to-do lists by focusing on three priorities.

These policies will help economies grow and will significantly improve financial and monetary stability in 2013 and beyond.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

India’s Economy: Stamina Is The Name Of The Game

Posted on February 21, 2013 by iMFdirect

by Laura Papi and Rahul Anand*

So far 2013 has been a breath of fresh air in terms of economic news: financial markets have rallied and economic indicators have started to surprise on the upside. In India, the rupee has strengthened and the Bombay Stock Exchange index (Sensex) crossed the 20,000 mark for the first time in two years.  Industrial production has started picking up.

So is India’s growth about to go back to 8-9 percent? The short answer is no. But we need to look back to understand why India’s growth has decelerated to a decade low and why the slump, which has hit investment particularly hard, has persisted for over a year. As structural problems are at the root of the slowdown, so structural reforms must be at the core of the solution.

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Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Europe: Toward A More Perfect Union

Posted on February 15, 2013 by iMFdirect

Nemat Shafik 4

By Nemat Shafik

During the years that followed the euro’s introduction, financial integration proceeded rapidly and markets and governments hailed it as a sign of success. The widespread belief was that it would benefit both south and north—capital was finally able to flow to where it would best be used and foster real convergence.

But in fact, a lasting convergence in productivity did not materialize across the European Union. Instead, a competitiveness divide emerged. As the financial crisis gripped the euro area in 2010, these and other problems came to the fore.

Three years later, the financial symptoms of the crisis are thankfully receding with a new sense of optimism in markets. But the underlying problems—lack of convergence of productivity and the structural flaws in the architecture of the monetary union—have only been partially addressed.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Resolutions for the Fiscal New Year—Staying on Track Is No Easy Task

Posted on February 4, 2013 by iMFdirect

by Carlo Cottarelli and Philip Gerson

Version in Español and عربي

We’re one month into 2013, and if past experience is any guide, by now many people will have all but forgotten the promises they made about the things they planned to do over the coming year.

It’s a time-honored tradition in many countries for people to make resolutions at the New Year, usually involving things that are good for them, like achieving a healthier weight. Unfortunately, it’s also traditional that these commitments quickly fall by the wayside, only to be taken up again next year, usually with the same results.

But unlike many of these resolutions, the ones made by most advanced economies to reduce their 2012 fiscal deficits were by and large kept. The average headline deficit in these countries fell by about ¾ percent of GDP last year, bringing the cumulative deficit decline to 3 percent of GDP since budget shortfalls peaked in 2009. This is good news.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Latvia’s Economic Potential: Recovery and Reforms

Posted on January 28, 2013 by iMFdirect

david moore

by David Moore

Latvia’s economy has attracted international attention out of all proportion to its size. Many observers know that Latvia returned to strong economic growth after a severe downturn in 2008 and 2009 and a tough austerity program.  In late 2012, Latvia even repaid the IMF in full, several years early.

But the international consensus ends there. Critics of Latvia’s economic strategy point to continuing high rates of unemployment and poverty; advocates point to the benefits of frontloading spending cuts and tax increases to lay the foundations for recovery.

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Filed under: Economic Crisis, Employment, Europe, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

We May Have Avoided the Cliffs, But We Still Face High Mountains

Posted on January 23, 2013 by iMFdirect

WEO

by Olivier Blanchard

Version in Español  and عربي

Optimism is in the air, particularly in financial markets. And some cautious optimism may indeed be justified.

Compared to where we were at the same time last year, acute risks have decreased. The United States has avoided the fiscal cliff, and the euro explosion in Europe did not occur. And uncertainty is lower.

But we should be under no illusion. There remain considerable challenges ahead. And the recovery continues to be slow, indeed much too slow.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

The Ties That Bond Us: What Demand For Government Debt Can Tell Us About the Risks Ahead

Posted on January 17, 2013 by iMFdirect

by Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda

It’s not news that emerging markets can be vulnerable to bouts of market volatility. Investors often pull sudden stops—they stop buying or start selling off their holdings of government bonds.

But what has become apparent in recent years is that advanced economy government bond markets can also experience investor outflows, and associated runs. At the same time, some traditional and new safe haven countries have seen their borrowing costs drop to historic lows as they experience rising inflows from foreign investors.

Our new research shows that advanced economies’ exposure to refinancing risk and changes in government borrowing costs depend mainly on who is holding the bonds— the demand side for government debt.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

The Power of Cooperation

Posted on December 21, 2012 by iMFdirect

by iMFdirect

The planet’s most successful species are the great cooperators: ants, bees, termites, and humans.

In an article in the new issue of Finance & Development magazine, President Bill Clinton shares his experience working with governments, business, and civil society as part of his Clinton Global Initiative.

He says they are making the most progress in places where people have formed networks of creative cooperation where stakeholders come together to do things better, faster and cheaper than any could alone.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Civil Society, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Latin American Firms: Keeping Corporate Vulnerabilities in Check

Posted on December 17, 2012 by iMFdirect

by María González-Miranda

(Version in Español)

Four years after the Lehman Brothers crisis, private companies in the largest and most financially integrated Latin American countries are doing relatively well, despite continuous bouts of global uncertainty. Like firms in other high-performing emerging markets in Asia, companies in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru (the “LA5”) have benefited from abundant external financing, strong domestic credit, and generally robust demand growth.

These favorable conditions have resulted in robust corporate profitability and valuation, reasonably contained debt ratios, and lower short-term maturity exposures than those observed in other emerging markets.

But some vulnerabilities are starting to build up.

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Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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