What Future for Unconventional Monetary Policies

Maurice Obstfeld2By Maurice Obstfeld

How quickly should the United States tighten monetary policy and exit from quantitative easing?  Is the neutral real interest rate lower than before the crisis? Should we raise inflation targets?  What can we learn from the unconventional policies that emerging markets adopted during the crisis? Are we entering an environment of global deflation?  And if so, can the existing central bank toolkit stave off that threat?

Seven years after the crisis, the effects of unconventional monetary policies continue to be a matter of debate. There is little consensus not only about the effectiveness of these policies in promoting aggregate demand, but also about possible unintended side effects on financial stability.

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Shrinking Populations, Rising Fiscal Challenges

By Benedict Clements, Kamil Dybczak, and Mauricio Soto

(Versions in 中文 and 日本語)

Populations are getting older around the world—that’s no surprise in light of declining fertility and improvements in health care. But in many countries, something more dramatic is going on—the population is actually shrinking. These demographic developments portend stark fiscal challenges. What should countries—whatever their degree of economic development—do to respond to these challenges?

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Sovereign Wealth Funds in the New Era of Oil

By Rabah Arezki, Adnan Mazarei, and Ananthakrishnan Prasad 

(Versions in عربي and 中文)

As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. The growth in the assets of their sovereign wealth funds, which were rising at a rapid rate until recently, is now slowing; some have started drawing on their buffers.

In the short run, this phenomenon is not cause for alarm. Most oil exporters have enough buffers to withstand a temporary drop in oil prices. But what will happen if low oil prices persist, and how will policymakers react?

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Empowering Women, Tackling Income Inequality

By Sonali Jain-Chandra, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak

(Versions in عربي中文Français日本語Русский, and Español)

Despite progress, wide gaps between women and men’s economic empowerment and opportunity remain, which policymakers need to tackle urgently. In most countries, more men than women work, and they get paid more for similar work. Also, there are considerable gender gaps in access to education, health and finance in a number of countries. There is mounting evidence that the lack of gender equity imposes large economic costs as it hampers productivity and weighs on growth.

Our new study analyzes the links between these two phenomena—inequality of income and that of gender.  We find that gender inequality is strongly associated with income inequality across time and countries of all income groups.

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To Hike or Not to Hike? Monetary Policy in Latin America During Fed Liftoff

By Carlos Caceres, Yan Carrière-Swallow, and Bertrand Gruss

(Versions in Español and Português)

As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to raise policy rates for the first time in almost a decade, Latin America is in the midst of a sharp downturn with unemployment on the rise. In this context, many central banks across the region have kept interest rates low to support economic activity. But can monetary policy stay that way as global rates rise? What will the Fed liftoff imply for the region?

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Plato & the Incas: Overheard at the IMF’s Annual Meetings

By iMFdirect

According to Plato, you do not really know something unless you can give an account of it.  Otherwise, you have just an opinion and not real knowledge.  The seminars that took place during the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru would have made Plato proud.

Our editors deployed their pens and notepads and brought back these themes and highlights.

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Corruption and Governance

by iMFdirect

In development circles, governance is often a code word for corruption. But Daniel Kaufmann, president of the Natural Resource Governance Institute, says governance is much broader. In this podcast, Kaufmann talks about how good governance can triple a country’s per capita income.

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