Posted on April 2, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
Seven years since the onset of the global financial crisis, we are still assessing how the crisis should change our views about macroeconomic policy. To take stock, the IMF organized two conferences, the first in 2011, the second in 2013, and published the proceedings in two books, titled “In the Wake of the Crisis” and “What Have We Learned?“.
The time seems right for a third assessment. Research has continued, policies have been tried, and the debates have been intense. But have we truly made much progress? Are we closer to a new framework? To address these questions, Raghuram Rajan, Ken Rogoff, Larry Summers and I are organizing a third conference, “Rethinking Macro Policy III: Progress or Confusion?” that will take place on April 15-16 at the IMF.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: capital inflows, central banks, exchange rate, financial system, fiscal policy, IMF Annual Research Conference, macroeconomic policy, macroprudential policy, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard | 1 Comment »
Posted on April 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Changyong Rhee
(Versions in 日本語)
Abenomics can succeed, despite recent setbacks to growth and inflation, in revitalizing Japan by making steadfast progress on all three of its arrows equally and simultaneously, as we show in our new book. This is also essential to avoid an undue weakening of the yen and ensure positive spillovers to Japan’s neighbors, its region, and the global economy.
The Legacy: Structural Changes During the Lost Decades
Most Japan followers will be familiar with the following striking statistic: in 2013, Japan’s level of nominal GDP was about 6 percent below its mid 1990s level. During this period, three important structural changes have been a brake on growth and efforts to get out of deflation: Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Abenomics, Bank of Japan, deflation, deleveraging, inflation, investment, Japan, labor market, small and medium-sized enterprises, structural changes, structural reform, subsidiaries | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 31, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Yan Liu, Kenneth Kang, Dermot Monaghan, and Wolfgang Bergthaler
Six years after the global financial crisis, Europe continues to be weighed down by high levels of corporate debt and millions of nonperforming loans. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) bear a disproportionately heavy burden. Their nonperforming loan ratios are on average more than double those of their larger corporate cousins. This is worrisome. SMEs are the lifeblood of the European economy, comprising 99 percent of all businesses and employing nearly two of every three workers in Europe. Given the importance of smaller businesses to the economy, addressing their problem loans could lay the foundation for a more robust and sustainable economic recovery.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Cyprus, euro zone, Europe, European Central Bank, Greece, Ireland, non-performing loans, nonperforming loans, small and medium-sized enterprises | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 30, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Era Dabla-Norris, Vikram Haksar, and Kalpana Kochhar
Global growth remains anemic more than five years after the global financial crisis. If nothing is done, the prospect of settling into a “new mediocre” will become reality, especially in advanced economies.
In many advanced economies, accommodative monetary policies, growth-friendly fiscal frameworks, and efforts to tackle private debt overhang and improve tax revenues and compliance are essential to lift economic growth in the short term.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: advanced economies, balance sheets, France, infrastructure, Italy, Japan, jobs, labor force, monetary policy, Portugal, reforms, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 27, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Vitor Gaspar
One of the big questions to emerge from the global financial crisis, especially in the euro area, is how to raise a country’s potential growth while restoring healthy public finances. For example, the euro area— despite some favorable news recently — faces marked-down growth prospects alongside high levels of public debt. The combination of high debt and tepid potential growth underscores the importance of improving prospects for sustained growth and safe and resilient public finances. A fundamental question then arises: what is the relation between fiscal consolidation and structural reform?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: euro area, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Germany, labor market, risk management, structural reform, Sweden, youth | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 11, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Jochen Andritzky
(Versions in Español)
In housing crises, high mortgage debt can feed a vicious circle of falling housing prices and economic slowdown. As a result, more households default on their mortgages and the crisis deepens. A new IMF Working Paper studies the differences in the housing crises and policy responses in Iceland, Ireland, Spain, and the United States, and argues that crisis policies geared to provide temporary debt service relief for struggling households, followed by durable loan modifications, can help break this vicious circle.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Foreclosures, house prices, housing market, Iceland, Ireland, loans, mortgages, recession, Spain, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 9, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Hamid Faruqee and Andrea Pescatori
(Version in Français)
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Canada’s financial system held up remarkably well—making it the envy of its Group of Seven peers. This relative resilience was particularly impressive considering its most important trading and financial partner, the United States, was the epicenter of the crisis.
Part of Canada’s success story lies in the fact that its banking system is dominated by a handful of large players who are well capitalized and have safe, conservative, and profitable business models concentrated in mortgage lending—much of it covered by mortgage insurance and backstopped by the federal government. Notwithstanding such an enviable record and sound financial system, we need to keep an eye on certain financial risks.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, Financial Crisis, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: bank lending, Canada, financial crisis, house prices, housing, housing market, loan-to-value ratio, mortgages, OECD, oil prices, trade, U.S. | 2 Comments »