The World’s Three-Speed Economic Recovery

Posted on April 16, 2013 by iMFdirect

WEOBy Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in عربي , 中文, 日本語, Русский, and Español)

The main theme of our latest outlook is one that you have now heard for a few days: we have moved from a two-speed recovery to a three-speed recovery.

Emerging market and developing economies are still going strong, but in advanced economies, there appears to be a growing bifurcation between the United States on the one hand, and the Euro area on the other.

This is reflected in our forecasts. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is forecast to reach 5.3% in 2013, and 5.7% in 2014. Growth in the United States is forecast to be 1.9% in 2013, and 3.0% in 2014. In contrast, growth in the Euro area is forecast to be -0.3% in 2013, and only 1.1% in 2014.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Time for Change—Shifting Energy Spending in Africa

Posted on March 28, 2013 by iMFdirect

Antoinette SayehBy Antoinette M. Sayeh

(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)

For many years, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have spent large amounts on subsidizing fuel and electricity. For both sources of energy combined, this averages around 3-4 percent of GDP. That’s about the same magnitude as public spending on health in many countries. Now we need to ask some important questions. Is this a good use of scarce resources?  Where does this money go? Is it helping to support the livelihood of the poorest in African economies?  Is it helping to boost the country’s competitiveness? The answers are largely, no. I believe this money can and must be used better to invest in the critical physical and social infrastructure required to sustain growth in sub-Saharan Africa. A recent IMF paper backs this up.

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Filed under: Africa, Emerging Markets, Finance, Fiscal policy, Français, growth, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Politics | 1 Comment »

Subsidizing Energy Consumption: Why it’s Wrong and What Can Be Done About it

Posted on March 27, 2013 by iMFdirect

Carlo CottarelliBy Carlo Cottarelli

(Versions in Español, 中文, Français, 日本語, and Русский)

Let’s face it. Everybody loves cheap energy. Almost all human activities require energy consumption and, if something is so basic, it seems pretty obvious that it should not be denied to anyone and government should make it as cheap as possible to both households and companies, including through subsidies. This can help households avoid paying exorbitant energy bills at the end of the month, something that the poor may not be able to afford even for basic needs like heating and cooking.

Companies may also need energy subsidies to help them stay competitive. Energy subsidies appear even more appropriate, and even the obvious thing to do, in countries that have a large supply of energy, like oil producers. After all, this natural wealth in the form of energy belongs to the people; why shouldn’t it be cheap?

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Filed under: Africa, Economic research, Español, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Français, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Middle East, Politics, عربي | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

March of the Billionaires

Posted on December 1, 2012 by iMFdirect

CliftJBy Jeremy Clift

Whether combating malaria through the provision of mosquito nets or building schools and providing basic sanitation, philanthropy is helping transform the developing world. Rich donors are devoting fortunes—many of them earned through computer software, entertainment, and venture capitalism—to defeating poverty and improving lives, supplementing and in some cases surpassing official aid channels.

From billionaires Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett to Aliko Dangote and George Soros, the titans of capitalism are backing good causes with their cash. By financing new vaccines, championing maternal health, supporting learning, building libraries, or buying up Amazon rain forest to protect the environment, philanthropists are backing innovations and new approaches that are changing lives and building dreams.

The new issue of Finance & Development magazine looks at the world of targeted giving and social entrepreneurship.

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Filed under: Africa, Asia, Civil Society, Debt Relief, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, Investment, LICs, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Policy Interest Rates in Latin America: Moving to Neutral?

Posted on November 19, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Nicolas Magud and Evridiki Tsounta 

(Version in Español)

Many Latin American countries have strengthened their monetary policy frameworks in recent years to keep the rate of inflation in check. Some of them have adopted an inflation target and use the policy interest rate as the main tool to achieve that target.

But how do central bankers know whether monetary policy is expansionary or contractionary? Policymakers would need to know how the current policy rate compares to a benchmark or neutral rate.

The neutral interest rate is the real interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full employment and stable inflation. If the economy is operating above its potential capacity and inflation is rising, policymakers should increase the policy interest rate above the neutral level to cool down the economy. Conversely, if the economy is operating below its full employment level, interest rates may need to be lowered below the neutral level.

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Filed under: Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Español, Finance, growth, Inequality, Latin America, Low-income countries, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Tharman Sees “Greater Global Policy Resolve”

Posted on October 14, 2012 by iMFdirect

“Although the economic environment has weakened, the policy resolve has strengthened.” This is how Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance , who is Chair of the IMF’s policy-setting committee, described the outcome of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Tokyo.

“Growth is slower than anyone expected,” he admitted in a video interview.  ”It is slower in Europe, it is not as fast as it should be in the United States, not as fast as it should be to bring unemployment down, and it is slowing in Asia to a greater extent than was expected. Tharman is chair of the 24-member IMFC.

“But we are now in a much better situation than six months ago when it comes to policy solutions.” He said there had been major steps forward in Europe “despite some disagreement on individual pieces.”  But underlying problems in the Eurozone, budget problems in the United States, and structural problems in global economy are longer term problems and “cannot be fixed quickly.”

For a quick brief on the outcomes from the meetings in Tokyo, take a look at:

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Civil Society, concessional lending, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial sector supervision, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

Taking Stock: Public Finances Now Stronger in Many Countries

Posted on October 9, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Carlo Cottarelli

(Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)

The slow global recovery is making fiscal adjustment more difficult around the world, but this doesn’t mean that little has been accomplished.

In fact, significant progress in many countries has been made during the past two years in strengthening their fiscal accounts after the 2008–09 deterioration.  The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress.

Deficits are lower, and in many cases debt is too

Let me first say something about advanced economies, which is where the most urgent fiscal problems exist.

Most advanced economies have made good progress lowering their fiscal deficits (the imbalance between spending and revenues). Deficits, adjusted for the economic cycle, fell by about ¾ of a percentage point of GDP in 2011 and 2012, and are projected to do so by about 1 percentage point of GDP in 2013.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Global Economy: Some Bad News and Some Hope

Posted on October 8, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)

The world economic recovery continues, but it has weakened further.  In advanced countries, growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment.  And in major emerging countries, growth that had been strong earlier has also decreased.

Let me give you a few numbers from our latest projections in the October World Economic Outlook released in Tokyo.

Relative to the IMF’s forecasts last April, our growth forecasts for 2013 have been revised down from 1.8%  to 1.5% for advanced countries, and from 5.8% down to 5.6% for emerging and developing countries.

The downward revisions are widespread.  They are however stronger for two sets of countries–for the members of the euro area, where we now expect growth close to zero in 2013, and for three of the large emerging market economies, China,  India, and Brazil.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, Global Governance, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Tokyo links — IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings

Posted on October 7, 2012 by iMFdirect

The 2012 annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank are being held this year in Tokyo at a crucial time for the world economy. Track everything through the live events schedule  (all Tokyo times).

Key reports out this week are

banner in Tokyo

Stay up-to-date through timely reports from IMF Survey online, through iMFdirect blog, World Bank Voices, and through regular video briefings and YouTube.  Also track news and commentary through Google +.

Extensive Japanese  (日本語) language content and updates are also available.

The Meetings bring together more than 10,000 central bankers, ministers of finance and development, private sector executives, academics, and journalists to discuss global economic issues and the interconnected world.

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence?

Posted on September 7, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Jonathan D. Ostry

One of the main arguments against capital controls is that, though they may be in an individual country’s interest, they could be multilaterally destructive in the same way that tariffs on goods can be destructive.

A particular concern is that a country might impose controls to avoid necessary macroeconomic and external adjustment, in turn shifting the burden of adjustment onto other countries.

A proliferation of capital controls across countries, moreover, may not only undercut warranted adjustments of exchange rates and imbalances across the globe, it may lead in the logical extreme to a situation of financial autarky or isolation in the same way that trade wars can shrink the volume of world trade, seriously damaging global welfare.

So should multilateral considerations trump national interests?

Possible rationales for controls

To begin, it is worth reviewing some of the reasons why countries may wish to impose controls.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

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