Posted on August 1, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alberto Behar
(Version in Русский)
The countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) are closely linked with Russia through trade, financial, and labor market channels. These ties have served the region well in recent years, helping it make significant economic gains when times were good. But how is the region affected when Russia’s economy slows down?
Underlying structural weaknesses have reduced Russia’s growth prospects for this year and over the medium term. Tensions emanating from developments in eastern Ukraine—including an escalation of fighting, the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, and new sanctions—have led to renewed market turbulence in Russian markets.
Experience has shown that lower growth in a large country can inflict significant collateral damage on neighboring countries with strong linkages of the type that the CCA has with Russia. (See also separate blog on Russia-Europe links.) We took a closer look at these connections to see how they transmit shocks, with particular attention to the impact on the region’s two main categories of economies—hydrocarbon importers and hydrocarbon exporters (see map).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Русский, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Armenia, Caucasus and Central Asia, gas, Kyrgyz Republic, oil exporters, oil-importing countries, Russia, spillover, Tajikistan, Ukraine | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 31, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Masood Ahmed
Judging by growth levels alone, the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia are doing well. The region’s recovery from the global financial crisis is gaining momentum, with the oil and gas exporters profiting from the high price of oil and the oil and gas importers benefiting from rising export demand and the continued recovery in Russia, which is translating into a steady increase in workers’ remittances.
As elsewhere, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery could cloud the region’s growth outlook. Assuming, however, that these external risks do not materialize, we foresee good prospects for the region, with fairly robust growth over the coming year. We are projecting growth in both groups of countries in the range of about 5½ and 6½ percent in 2011 and 2012—as detailed in our latest Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia.
Looking beyond growth rates, however, one challenge that stands out for the region as a whole is to create jobs. Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, Middle East | Tagged: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Central Asia, Georgia, jobs, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, skills mismatch, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan | 6 Comments »
Posted on October 28, 2010 by iMFdirect
By David Owen
(Version in Русский)
Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia region—especially those that import, rather than export, oil—were hit hard by the Great Recession of 2008/09. The good news is that, today, the outlook for those countries is broadly positive. But, as often seems to be the case in today’s world, this good news is tempered with a word of caution.
According to our latest Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, there are a number of downside risks. And the key challenge for these four countries—Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan—will be to take actions now to address these risks. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Armenia, current account deficits, domestic saving, economic rebalancing, exchange rate depreciation, exchange rate flexibility, external debt, external vulnerability, Fiscal Stimulus, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, monetary stimulus, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, Tajikistan | Leave a comment »