Posted on July 9, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
Asia’s leadership of the global economic recovery is continuing unabated. And, even though heightened risks mean there may be tough times ahead again, the region is well equipped to handle them.
Asia’s remarkably fast recovery from the global financial crisis continued in the first half of 2010, despite the recent tensions in global financial markets. In fact, GDP growth in the first quarter was generally stronger than we anticipated in our Regional Economic Outlook in April. And high-frequency indicators suggest that Asian economic activity remained brisk in the second quarter. Even more notable, this is true both for economies that escaped a recession in 2009, thanks to their relatively larger domestic demand bases (China, Indonesia, and India), and for the more export-oriented economies such as Japan, the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), and the rest of the ASEAN.
Two growth engines
What explains the strong economic momentum across the region? It is simple. The two “engines of growth” that spurred Asia’s recovery in 2009— exports and private domestic demand—have remained robust in 2010.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, growth | Tagged: ASEAN, Asia, Australia, capital flows, China, domestic demand, exports, Fiscal Stimulus, global economy, India, Indonesia, International Monetary Fund, Japan, New Zealand, policy stimulus, private domestic demand, regional economic outlook, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 9, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
In just a few days’ time, the Korean government and the IMF will jointly host a high-level international conference in Daejeon, Korea. At the Fund, we are trying continually to enhance our strategic dialogue with Asia, and the conference is an important part of this effort.
Asia’s leadership of the global recovery is undeniable, as I have said in earlier blogs. And the extensive reforms and improved macroeconomic policy frameworks that underpinned the region’s remarkable resilience to the global crisis will see Asia’s successes continue. In just two short decades, we expect it to become the largest economic region in the world.
The Korea conference will be an opportunity to showcase Asia’s economic successes, and also highlight the importance of regional integration and cooperation, which has been growing rapidly in Asia.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: Asia, Asia and the IMF, Asia-Pacific, Asian integration, cross-border linkages, early warning exercise, financial sector reform, G-20, global economic crisis, global financial safety net, governance, governance reform, IMF governance, low-income countries, multilateral surveillance, policy coordination, rebalance global economy, regional financial safety nets, regional integration, spillovers, strong policy frameworks, surveillance, vulnerability analysis | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 21, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Olivier J. Blanchard
Let me begin with some good news. The global recovery has evolved better than expected. We at the IMF now forecast global growth to reach 4.2% in 2010, an upward revision of 0.3% from our January forecast, and 4.3% in 2011. Alongside growth, global trade has also shown a strong rebound, and so have capital flows. And, as discussed in the newly released Global Financial Stability Report, financial market conditions and stability have improved.
These good global numbers hide however a more complex reality, namely a tepid recovery in many advanced economies, and a much stronger one in most emerging and developing economies.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Europe, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation, recession | Tagged: Asia, China, Europe, fiscal consolidation, India, Japan, recovery, unemployment, United States, World Economic Outlook | 4 Comments »
Posted on August 19, 2009 by iMFdirect
By Ajai Chopra
When the global financial crisis spread to emerging Europe in the last quarter of 2008, memories of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s sprang back to life. Would emerging Europe face the same chaotic currency depreciations, mass defaults of banks and companies, double-digit output losses and social unrest that beset several Asian countries back then?
Nine months into the crisis, it is clear that emerging Europe as a whole is not following Asia’s script. But it is also clear that the crisis is evolving differently across countries.
The Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) are suffering output declines that already exceed those of the Asian crisis (see chart below).
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, IMF | Tagged: Asia, Baltics, eastern Europe, Europe, IMF | 2 Comments »