Posted on August 14, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Stephan Danninger
(Versions in 日本語)
Japan’s GDP declined by almost 7 percent in the second quarter, more than many had forecast including us here at the IMF. Many cite the increase in the sales tax this April for this decline. But that is not the full story.
Yes, it is true that consumer responses to major tax increases are difficult to predict, and large spending swings are not unusual. We see this pattern in many countries (see chart) including Germany’s 2007 VAT increase, which had a short-lived impact.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Abenomics, Bank of Japan, consumption tax, Germany, inflation, Japan, labor market, sales tax, structural reform, VAT | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 14, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam and Ranjit Teja
As inflation has sunk in the euro area, talk of quantitative easing (QE)—and misgivings about it—have soared. Some think QE is not needed; others that it would not work; and yet others that it only creates asset bubbles and may even be “illegal.” In its latest report on the euro area, the IMF assesses recent policy action positively but adds that “… if inflation remains too low, the ECB should consider a substantial balance sheet expansion, including through asset purchases.” Given all the reservations, would the juice be worth the squeeze?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Finance, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: balance sheets, Bank of Japan, banks, bond markets, euro area, European Central Bank, Germany, inflation, quantitative easing, stock market | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 21, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
Almost one year ago, the term Abenomics first surfaced in Japan. The idea of a coordinated policy effort to revive Japan’s economy and end deflation seemed a bold idea, but also a long-shot. Back in February, several young investment bankers told me that ending deflation within the next few years stood at most, a 20 percent chance. They noted that they had never experienced rising prices in their lifetimes. By June they had upped the chances of success to 40 percent. With Abenomics approaching the one-year mark, is the new strategy working?
Lot of policy action
The year started with a flurry of new policy initiatives: in January, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted a 2 percent inflation target, followed by new fiscal stimulus, and a decision to join negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a proposal for a free trade agreement spanning countries from Australia, Brunei, to Chile, Canada, and the U.S. Shortly after, Haruhiko Kuroda took the helm at the Bank of Japan and introduced Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing—an aggressive plan to reach 2 percent inflation in about 2 years mainly through large-scale bond purchases. Just, a few days ago, the government agreed to go ahead with the consumption tax increase in 2014 and announced further fiscal stimulus to soften the growth impact. Discussions on growth reforms are next on the agenda, with a special Diet session starting this month. Plenty of action, but has this whirlwind of activity paid off?
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Abenomics, Bank of Japan, interest rates, Japan, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia | 1 Comment »
Posted on August 5, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Jerry Schiff
(Versions in 日本語l and 中文)
Discussions in Japan of the “three arrows” of Abenomics—the three major components of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic plan to reflate the economy—are rampant among its citizens as well as economists, journalists and policy-makers worldwide. Even J-Pop groups are recording paeans to the economic policy named after the newly-elected premier. It is clear that “Abenomics” has been a remarkable branding success. But will it equally be an economic triumph?
We think it can be, and initial signs are positive. But such success is not assured. It will require difficult decisions as the country moves into largely uncharted territory. And much will depend on changing expectations within the country.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: Abenomics, Article IV, Bank of Japan, deflation, fiscal policy, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investment, Japan, monetary policy, public debt, quantitative easing, stimulus | 1 Comment »
Posted on September 28, 2012 by iMFdirect
by Laura Kodres
Despite a host of reforms in the right direction, the financial structures that were in place before the global crisis have not actually changed that much, and they need to if the global financial system is to become a safer place.
Although the intentions of policymakers are clear and positive, the system remains precarious.
Our new study presents an interim report card on progress toward a safer financial system. Overall, there is still a long way to go.
How we measure progress
In our study, we first tried to pay attention to those features of financial systems related to the crisis—the large dominant, highly interconnected institutions, the heavy role of nonbanks, and the development of complex financial products for instance—features that need to be addressed in some way.
To do this we needed to construct measures of these features in a way that would allow us to gauge how well the reforms are working toward changing them. We looked at a lot of data, but we focus on three types of features.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Bank of Japan, banks, Basel III, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, financial crisis, financial institutions, financial markets, financial reform, Financial regulation, Globalization, government bonds, grwoth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Laura Kodres, nonbanks, policymakers, too important to fail, United Kingdom, United States, Vickers Commission, Volker Rule | 11 Comments »