Posted on April 28, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
(Version in 中文, 日本語 and 한국어)
As the economic recovery has matured across much of Asia, the region has continued to be a driving force in the strengthening global recovery. Yet, recent tragic events—around the globe, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan—are an all too poignant reminder of the fragility of our economic circumstances and, indeed, life.
Much of this weighs on my mind as I am here in Hong Kong to launch our April 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific. While the outlook is by no means gloomy, it is an opportune time to consider how Asia should manage the next phase of growth. (more…)
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital inflows, commodity prices, domestic demand, economic growth, economic recovery, exports, financial risk, fiscal consolidation, global imbalances, global recovery, Macroeconomic policies, overheating, poverty, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, unemployment | Comments Off
Posted on April 21, 2011 by iMFdirect
Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world, gathering at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington last week, identified a slew of continued and emerging risks to the global economy, including higher food and fuel prices, the disaster in Japan, unrest in the Middle East, lingering unemployment in parts of the world, and the risk of overheating in some dynamic emerging markets.
With the recovery solidifying but still fragile, ministers put the spotlight on how to strengthen the IMF’s surveillance—its economic assessment and analysis—to help countries take the action needed to address risks and avoid future crises. (more…)
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: commodity prices, G-20, global financial crisis, IMF surveillance, IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, International Monetary and Financial Committee, multilateral surveillance, overheating, risks, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, unemployment | 2 Comments »
Posted on April 11, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
The world economic recovery is gaining strength, but it remains unbalanced.
Three numbers tell the story. We expect the world economy to grow at about 4.5 percent a year in both 2011 and 2012, but with advanced economies growing at only 2.5 percent, while emerging and developing economies grow at a much higher 6.5 percent.
On the good news side. Earlier fears of a double dip—which we did not share—have not materialized. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: bank recapitalization, capital controls, capital inflows, commodity prices, economic recovery, exchange rate, Financial regulation, financial stability, financial supervision, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Stimulus, fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations, inventory cycle, macroprudential policies, policy coordination, potential output, private demand, unemployment, World Economic Outlook | 8 Comments »
Posted on February 18, 2011 by iMFdirect
Certainly the world did not end in 2008 with the collapse of Lehman and the crisis that followed. But, it didn’t mostly—perhaps only—because extraordinary international policy cooperation helped avert a far worse outcome.
… the G-20 has now to adapt to a new economic environment. It must prove that it is able to coordinate the economic policies of major economies on an ongoing basis.
French G-20 Presidency
G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors gather in Paris for their first ministerial level meeting of France’s G-20 presidency at a critical juncture (more…)
Filed under: Economic outlook, Employment, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: commodity prices, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, economic recovery, food prices, G-20, G-20 MAP, G-20 mutual assessment process, global imbalances, inequality, international monetary cooperation, international monetary system, John Lipsky, Olivier Blanchard, policy coordination, unemployment | 3 Comments »
Posted on February 1, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Carlo Cottarelli
(Version in Español)
As we said in the just-published Fiscal Monitor update, fiscal policy this year in some leading advanced economies is shaping up to be quite different from what was expected just last November.
The United States and Japan are delaying their earlier plans to reduce their public deficits, choosing instead to provide further support to their economies. The change in plans is even more remarkable if you look at the cyclically adjusted balance. You can see this in the charts. Some of the change in the fiscal stance with respect to our earlier projections is attributable to the somewhat better than projected fiscal results in 2010, a point to which I will return in a moment. Most of it, however, is due to additional stimulus measures introduced during the last two months. These two countries need to strengthen their fiscal adjustment credentials by detailing the measures they will adopt to lower deficits and debt over the medium term. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: commodity prices, cyclically adjusted balance, fiscal consolidation, fiscal institutions, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, general government balance, government debt, medium-term fiscal consolidation, public debt, sovereign risk | 2 Comments »
Posted on January 28, 2011 by iMFdirect
Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, fiscal challenges in advanced economies, concerns about overheating in emerging market countries, and the impact of rising food prices. These are the hot topics at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and a clear sign of the tensions and risks as the global economy recovers.
In a video interview from Davos, IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky tells us that, with the return of global growth, the mood is certainly more optimistic than it was a year or two ago. But there is also a clear sense among delegates that this has not solved some of the world’s important economic problems. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: commodity prices, Europe, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Global Financial Stability Report, global imbalances, global recovery, inflationary pressures, sovereign debt, World Economic Forum, World Economic Outlook | 3 Comments »
Posted on January 25, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Version in Español | Français | Русский | عربي| 中文 | 日本語 )
The world economic recovery continues. But it remains a two-speed recovery: slow in advanced countries, and much faster in emerging and developing economies. As a result, tensions and risks are emerging, which require strong policy responses.
For some time, global activity was led by fiscal stimulus and the restocking of inventories. This process is now essentially over, which means that global growth is set to slow over the coming year. Fortunately, underlying private demand is improving, so we expect the slowdown to be modest, with global growth remaining at 4.4 percent in 2011, down from 5 percent in 2010. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, 中文 | Tagged: bank recapitalization, capital flows, commodity prices, currency appreciation, economic recovery, financial markets, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Stimulus, global imbalances, private demand, structural reform, unemployment | 7 Comments »
Posted on January 21, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Luis M. Cubeddu and Camilo E. Tovar
(Version in Español)
Many Latin American economies are booming due to strong inflows of capital and stronger export earnings from high commodity prices. Though favorable today, this situation is also a double-edged sword.
Households, companies, and banks are spurred to take on financial risk. But, if risks become excessive or poorly managed, they sow the seeds of future problems. The region has experienced firsthand the boom and bust cycles that can ensue, and there is consensus that this needs to be avoided or minimized in the future. The IMF’s two latest Regional Economic Outlooks for the region—published in May and October 2010—focused on precisely this issue.
While the bottom line is the need for effective macroeconomic policy management and implementation, information is an essential ingredient. (more…)
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: asset price bubbles, Brazil, capital flows, commodity prices, corporate financing structure, credit conditions surveys, currency mismatch, data availability, data quality, derivatives, financial institutions, financial risk, Financial Stability Report, house price indicators, maturity mismatch, Mexico, portfolio risk, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, statistics | 1 Comment »