Posted on September 18, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Sweta Saxena
1. Are emerging markets slowing down? Yes. They have been slowing down for some time now. GDP growth has declined from 7 percent during the pre-crisis period (2003-8) to 6 percent over the post-crisis period (2010-13) to 5 percent, in our projections, over the next 5 years (2014-18). This path is illustrated below in Chart 1. This last point stands out. Despite an uneven recovery, growth in advanced economies is projected to eventually recover. Not so for emerging markets.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Brazil, Central America, China, commodiity prices, emerging market economies, global trade, Russia, spillover effects, spillover reports, structural reform, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 5, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda
(Version in Español, Français, Português, Русский, 中文 and 日本語)
There are a trillion reasons to care about who owns emerging market debt. That’s how much money global investors have poured into in these government bonds in recent years —$1 trillion. Who owns it, for how long and why it changes over time can shed light on the risks; a sudden reversal of money flowing out of a country can hurt. Shifts in the investor base also can have implications for a government’s borrowing costs.
What investors do next is a big question for emerging markets, and our new analysis takes some of the guesswork out of who owns your debt. The more you know your investors, the better you understand the potential risks and how to deal with them.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Debt Relief, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt | Tagged: balance sheets, Brazil, China, Colombia, debt, emerging market economies, Global Financial Stability Report, government debt, Indonesia, interest rates, Latvia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Uruguay | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 13, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alexander Culiuc and Kalpana Kochhar
(Versions in Español, Русский, Português, and 中文)
A number of emerging market economies have been on a rollercoaster since the U.S. Federal Reserve announced last May the eventual tapering of its asset purchase program. This is another reminder of how susceptible these economies remain to economic conditions outside their borders.
Much of the market movements to date have been short term in nature. But emerging markets know the end-game – interest rates in advanced economies will eventually go up, reducing the cheap external financing they have benefited from until now. And this is not the only external factor weighing on the growth prospects of emerging markets.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: advanced economies, capital flows, commodiity prices, emerging market economies, exchange rate, inflation, interest rates, World Economic Outlook | 3 Comments »