Posted on October 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Selim Elekdag and Gaston Gelos
Debt held by firms in emerging market economies in a currency other than their own poses extra complications these days. When the U.S. Fed does eventually raise interest rates, the accompanying further strengthening of the U.S. dollar will mean an emerging market’s own currency will depreciate against the higher value of the U.S. dollar, and would make it increasingly difficult for firms to service their foreign currency-denominated debts if they have not been properly hedged.
In the latest Global Financial Stability Report, we find that firms in emerging markets that have increased their debt-to-assets ratios have generally also increased their overall sensitivity to changes in the exchange rate—commonly called exchange-rate exposure.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Africa, Asia, construction, emerging markets, Europe, exchange rate, foreign exchange, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, interest rates, Latin America, Middle East, monetary policy, U.S. Fed | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 22, 2015 by iMFdirect
Inequality is one of the defining issues of our time, so you may want to tune in to this interview with the authors of a new study that shows that higher inequality leads to lower growth. You can also read their blog here.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Civil Society, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Politics, Reform | Tagged: economic growth, emerging markets, income distribution, middle class, poor, trickle down economics | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 22, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alexander Klemm, Andre Meier, and Sebastián Sosa
(Version in Español)
Governments in most emerging economies, including in Latin America, have reduced their exposure to U.S. interest rates over the past decade, by issuing a greater share of public debt in domestic currencies.
Even so, sudden changes in U.S. interest rates still have the power to roil financial markets in emerging economies. Witness last year’s “taper tantrum”—when the Fed hinted at the possibility of tapering its bond purchases sooner than previously expected, causing bond yields to rise sharply. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Brazil, capital flows, emerging economies, emerging markets, financial stability, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, monetary policy, South Africa, taper tantrum, Treasury, Turkey, U.S. interest rates, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 18, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Era Dabla-Norris and Kalpana Kochar
(Version in Español)
The era of remarkable growth in many emerging market economies fueled by cheap money and high commodity prices may very well be coming to an end.
The slowdown reflects not just inadequate global demand, but also structural factors that are rendering previous growth engines less effective, and the fact that economic “good times” reduced the incentives to implement further reforms to enhance productivity. With the end of the period of favorable global financing and trade conditions, the time is nigh for governments to make strong efforts to increase productivity—the essential foundation of sustainable growth and rising living standards. Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: emerging markets, employment, financial markets, Financial regulation, financial supervision, growth, iMFdirect, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, Labor, productivity | 1 Comment »
Posted on February 21, 2013 by iMFdirect
by Laura Papi and Rahul Anand*
So far 2013 has been a breath of fresh air in terms of economic news: financial markets have rallied and economic indicators have started to surprise on the upside. In India, the rupee has strengthened and the Bombay Stock Exchange index (Sensex) crossed the 20,000 mark for the first time in two years. Industrial production has started picking up.
So is India’s growth about to go back to 8-9 percent? The short answer is no. But we need to look back to understand why India’s growth has decelerated to a decade low and why the slump, which has hit investment particularly hard, has persisted for over a year. As structural problems are at the root of the slowdown, so structural reforms must be at the core of the solution.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: cash transfers, economic growth, emerging markets, fiscal deficit, fuel subsidy spending, government deficits, IMF, iMFdirect, India, inflation, International Monetary Fund, investment, structural reforms | 1 Comment »
Posted on January 2, 2013 by iMFdirect
By David Lipton
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)
With the New Year, we all hope to put the global financial crisis behind us. We also need to do more to secure our future.
Beyond our current economic and financial problems, there are long-term issues that we all know about, but that get too little attention in an era when policymakers are so fully engaged in slogging away at more immediate problems. Unfortunately, long-term issues unaddressed today will become crises tomorrow.
So we had better lengthen our focus, see what looms on the horizon, and do more to steer the global economy in a better direction.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: advanced economies, Climate change, crisis, David Lipton, developing economies, emerging markets, global economy, global warming, Globalization, growth, Hurricane Sandy, iMFdirect blog, structural reforms, technology | 7 Comments »