Posted on November 9, 2015 by iMFdirect
by John Caparusso, Yingyuan Chen, Evan Papageorgiou and Shamir Tanna
(Versions in 中文, Português, Русский, and Español)
Emerging markets have had a great run. The fifteen largest emerging market economies grew by 48% from 2009 to 2014, a period when the Group of Twenty economies collectively expanded by 6%.
How did emerging markets sustain this growth? In part, they drew upon bank lending to drive corporate credit expansion, strong earnings, and low defaults. This credit boom, combined with falling commodity prices and foreign currency borrowing, now leaves emerging market firms vulnerable and financial sectors under stress, as we discuss in the latest Global Financial Stability Report.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: Argentina, bank lending, Brazil, China, commodiity prices, credit boom, debt, emerging markets, G20, Global Financial Stability Report, India, Indonesia, macroprudential policies, Russia, Thailand, Turkey | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 15, 2015 by iMFdirect
According to Plato, you do not really know something unless you can give an account of it. Otherwise, you have just an opinion and not real knowledge. The seminars that took place during the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru would have made Plato proud.
Our editors deployed their pens and notepads and brought back these themes and highlights.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Climate change, commodity prices, economic growth, emerging markets, energy subsidies, financial inclusion, fiscal policy, IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, oil prices, Peru, structural reforms | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 6, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
(Versions in Español, عربي, 中文, Français, Русский and 日本語)
Today, we released the October 2015 World Economic Outlook.
Our forecasts come at a moment when the world economy is at the intersection of at least three powerful forces.
First, China’s economic transformation – away from export- and investment-led growth and manufacturing, in favor of a greater focus on consumption and services. This process, however necessary and healthy in the longer term, has near-term implications for China’s growth and its relations with its trade partners.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, commodiity prices, deflation, emerging markets, exchange rate, forecast, investment, Japan, Latin America, Maurice Obstfeld, monetary policy, Norway, Russia, trade, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 1, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Selim Elekdag and Gaston Gelos
Debt held by firms in emerging market economies in a currency other than their own poses extra complications these days. When the U.S. Fed does eventually raise interest rates, the accompanying further strengthening of the U.S. dollar will mean an emerging market’s own currency will depreciate against the higher value of the U.S. dollar, and would make it increasingly difficult for firms to service their foreign currency-denominated debts if they have not been properly hedged.
In the latest Global Financial Stability Report, we find that firms in emerging markets that have increased their debt-to-assets ratios have generally also increased their overall sensitivity to changes in the exchange rate—commonly called exchange-rate exposure.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: Africa, Asia, construction, emerging markets, Europe, exchange rate, foreign exchange, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, interest rates, Latin America, Middle East, monetary policy, U.S. Fed | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 22, 2015 by iMFdirect
Inequality is one of the defining issues of our time, so you may want to tune in to this interview with the authors of a new study that shows that higher inequality leads to lower growth. You can also read their blog here.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Civil Society, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries, Middle East, Politics, Reform | Tagged: economic growth, emerging markets, income distribution, middle class, poor, trickle down economics | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 22, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alexander Klemm, Andre Meier, and Sebastián Sosa
(Version in Español)
Governments in most emerging economies, including in Latin America, have reduced their exposure to U.S. interest rates over the past decade, by issuing a greater share of public debt in domestic currencies.
Even so, sudden changes in U.S. interest rates still have the power to roil financial markets in emerging economies. Witness last year’s “taper tantrum”—when the Fed hinted at the possibility of tapering its bond purchases sooner than previously expected, causing bond yields to rise sharply. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Brazil, capital flows, emerging economies, emerging markets, financial stability, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, monetary policy, South Africa, taper tantrum, Treasury, Turkey, U.S. interest rates, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 18, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Era Dabla-Norris and Kalpana Kochar
(Version in Español)
The era of remarkable growth in many emerging market economies fueled by cheap money and high commodity prices may very well be coming to an end.
The slowdown reflects not just inadequate global demand, but also structural factors that are rendering previous growth engines less effective, and the fact that economic “good times” reduced the incentives to implement further reforms to enhance productivity. With the end of the period of favorable global financing and trade conditions, the time is nigh for governments to make strong efforts to increase productivity—the essential foundation of sustainable growth and rising living standards. Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: emerging markets, employment, financial markets, Financial regulation, financial supervision, growth, iMFdirect, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, Labor, productivity | 1 Comment »