Macroprudential Policy—Filling the Black Hole

Posted on April 8, 2011 by iMFdirect

By José Viñals

When the global financial system was thrown into crisis, many policymakers were shocked to discover a gaping hole in their policy toolkit.

They have since made significant progress in developing macroprudential policy measures aimed at containing system-wide risks in the financial sector. Yet progress has been uneven. Greater efforts are needed to transform this policy patchwork into an effective crisis-prevention toolkit. 

Given the enormous economic and human cost of the recent financial debacle, I strongly believe that we cannot afford to miss this opportunity for substantial reform. (more…)

Filed under: Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, G-20, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

Observations on the Evolution of Economic Policies

Posted on March 25, 2011 by iMFdirect

Guest post by Michael Spence, New York University,
Professor Emeritus Stanford University, and
co-host of the Conference on Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis

It was a privilege to participate in the IMF conference devoted to rethinking policy frameworks in the wake of the crisis. Highly encouraging was the openness of the discussion, the range of views, the willingness to question orthodoxy, and the posture of humility.

One gets the impression that the crisis has triggered a response that it should trigger, and we have embarked on a path of rethinking conceptual frameworks and policy choices in a way that will contribute to the stability of the system.

That said, the good news is that we recognize that in finance and parts of macroeconomics the models or frameworks are incomplete. That represents a challenge to the academic community. But it also means that, in the short run, participants and regulators will be operating with incomplete models. This will require judgments (which will be uncomfortable in contrast to the earlier sense of certainty). There will be mistakes. And, as Olivier Blanchard said in his excellent summary, we will proceed step-by-step, evaluating the impacts of policy choices and sometimes reversing course. (more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic research, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

Government Bonds: No Longer a World Without Risk

Posted on March 24, 2011 by iMFdirect

By José Viñals

The risk free nature of government bonds, one of the cornerstones of the global financial system, has come into question as the global crisis unfolds.

One thing is now very clear: government bonds are no longer the risk-free assets they once were. This carries far reaching implications for policymakers, central bankers, debt managers, and how the demand and supply sides of government bond markets function.

After a recent IMF conference on a new approach to government risk, I’d like to highlight three key aspects: (more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 33 Comments »

A Balanced Debate About Reforming Macroeconomics

Posted on March 22, 2011 by iMFdirect

Guest post by Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia University, and
co-host of the Conference on Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis

The most remarkable aspect of the recent conference at the IMF was the broad consensus that the macroeconomic models that had been relied upon in the past and had informed major aspects of monetary and macro-policy had failed. They failed to predict the crisis; standard models even said bubbles couldn’t exist—markets were efficient. Even after the bubble broke, they said the effects would be contained. Even after it was clear that the effects were not “contained,” they provided limited guidance on how the economy should respond. Maintaining low and stable inflation did not ensure real economic stability. The crisis was “man-made.” While in standard models, shocks were exogenous, here, they were endogenous. (more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic research, Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments »

Latin America: Making the Good Times Better

Posted on February 25, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Dominique Strauss-Kahn

(Version in Español, Português)

Latin America has enjoyed tremendous economic dynamism and a rising quality of life in recent years. But, faced with new challenges, the question is: how best to sustain this progress?

As I travel through the region this week—visiting Panama, Uruguay, and Brazil—I’m looking forward to hearing the views of government officials, parliamentarians, and university students on the key challenges facing their countries today. Here are three questions that I look forward to discussing during my trip. (more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Time Waits for No Man: How to Secure Financial Stability in 2011

Posted on January 25, 2011 by iMFdirect

By José Viñals

(Version in Español | 中文 | Français | 日本語 | Русский | عربي )

This morning, I presented our latest views on global financial stability in Johannesburg, South Africa.

So, where does the global financial system stand at the moment? Yes, we have witnessed improvements recently, but we are also observing a dichotomy between the economy and the financial system. While the global economic recovery has been continuing, financial stability is still at risk, because of a persistent lack of investor confidence in some advanced country sovereigns and their banking systems.

At this cross-roads, we see three key messages. (more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Exploring Economic Policy Frontiers After the Crisis: 2010 IMF Research Conference

Posted on November 19, 2010 by iMFdirect

By Olivier Blanchard

The crisis has forced economists and policymakers to go back to their drawing boards. Where did they go wrong, and what implications does the crisis have for both macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic policy making?

This was the topic of this year’s IMF Jacques Polak Research Conference. The conference was the first since the passing of Jacques Polak, after whom the conference has been named, and to which he came every year until last year. Present at the Fund’s creation and a long time Fund economist, Jacques had been described by the Managing Director as “a leader of critical thought during the post-war evolution of the global economy.” As such, this conference, and its focus on the post-crisis evolution of the global economy, was fitting a fitting tribute to Jacques. We shall miss him.

Post-crisis policymaking

The twelve papers presented at the conference provided rich fodder for discussion. For two days, researchers and policymakers explored the contours of policy making in the post-crisis world. I want to share with you some of the major themes: (more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

A Marriage Made in Heaven or Hell: Monetary and Financial Stability

Posted on July 20, 2010 by iMFdirect

By José Viñals

Monetary stability seems almost a given today, even taken for granted. It wasn’t always like that. Not so long ago, high and volatile inflation routinely raised its ugly head and threatened living standards. Some of us even remember those days! It wasn’t pleasant. But since then, an effective antidote has pretty much wiped out rampant price instability. Over the past three decades, better monetary frameworks have caused the level and volatility of inflation to fall sharply. These frameworks enshrined price stability as the main monetary policy objective, and provided independence and constrained discretion in the pursuit of this objective, often set out through formal inflation targets.

As I said, it worked out well. Or did it? In reality, there was a gaping hole in the system. While monetary policy frameworks fortified the castle against inflation at the front, they didn’t pay much attention to back door vulnerabilities. I’m talking about financial stability.

(more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal Stimulus, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Fair and Substantial—Taxing the Financial Sector

Posted on April 25, 2010 by iMFdirect

By Carlo Cottarelli

(Version in 日本語  )

We knew we were in for a tough time when the leaders of the Group of Twenty (G-20) asked the IMF to give them our views, at their summit coming up in June 2010, on  “… the range of options countries have adopted or are considering as to how the financial sector could make a fair and substantial contribution toward paying for any burden associated with government interventions to repair the banking system.”

Everyone has strong feelings these days on the taxation of the financial sector. Taxpayers who financed the rescue of the financial sector during the recent crisis want their money back—or at least not to get caught again. Some want to see more of the money coursing through the financial system turned to public use.

The industry worries about new taxes coming on top of the swathe of regulatory reforms that likely lies ahead for them. And some governments in countries whose financial sector weathered the storm pretty well wonder why they should now ask it for cash. Responding to the request from the G-20 leaders puts us in the middle of all these concerns.

Last week the IMF gave an interim report to the G-20 finance ministers focused on the specific question we were asked: what are the options in raising money from the financial sector to pay for the costs of government intervention from which it benefits. That report is confidential, but—you may have noticed—has still managed to attract a lot of attention.  So let me set out how our thinking on this stands.

(more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, G-20, Global Governance, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 24 Comments »

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