Posted on March 23, 2012 by iMFdirect
José Viñals (l) and Nicolás Eyzaguirre
By José Viñals and Nicolás Eyzaguirre
(Version in Español)
Just a few years ago, “Macro…, what?!” would have been a typical reaction to hearing the technical term that today is the talk of the town among financial regulators.
But in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, macroprudential policy—which seeks to contain systemic risks in the financial system—has indeed come to be an important part of the overall policy toolkit to preserve economic stability and sustain growth.
For example, a number of countries, especially emerging markets, have been relying on macroprudential policies (such as loan-to-value or debt-to-income ratios, or countercyclical loan loss provisions) to rein in rapid credit growth, which—if unchecked—could destabilize the financial system and, ultimately, bring about a recession and drive up unemployment.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: financial stability, José Viñals, macroprudential regulation, Microprudential regulations, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, risk, Uruguay | 6 Comments »
Posted on November 7, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
The global financial crisis gave economists pause for thought about what should be the future of macroeconomic policy. We have devoted much of our thinking to this issue these past three years, including how the many policy instruments work together.
The interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies, in particular, remain hotly debated. And this year’s IMF Annual Research Conference is an important opportunity to take that debate another step forward.
Looking back, it is striking how many papers from last year’s conference—on post-crisis macroeconomic and financial policies—have been so immediately relevant to events on the ground. Just to give you an example: the paper on fiscal space is obviously front and center in the policy debate on the European sovereign crisis, the United States’ budget, and challenges faced by advanced country governments more generally.
This year’s topic—monetary and macroprudential policies—is equally relevant. It goes to the core of central banks’ mandates, and their role in achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. The financial crisis triggered a fundamental rethinking of these issues, but much research, both conceptual and empirical, remains to be done. The conference provides an excellent opportunity to engage with prominent academics, policymakers and private sector practitioners. I hope the conference will contribute to expanding the frontier of knowledge on this topic. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic research, Financial regulation, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: asset bubbles, asset price bubbles, central banking, credit bubble, crisis prevention, financial institutions, Financial regulation, financial risk, financial stability, fiscal space, Hyun Song Shin, IMF, IMF Annual Research Conference, IMF Jacques Polak Research Conference, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, macroprudential policies, monetary policy, Mundell-Fleming lecture, regulatory arbitrage, risk taking | 8 Comments »
Posted on June 2, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
Capital flows into emerging Asia should be high on the ‘watch list’ for policymakers in the region. But, perhaps, not in the way we had previously anticipated.
Twelve months ago our policy antennae were keenly attuned to the risks posed by the foreign capital that flooded into Asia from mid-2009 onwards. What was remarkable about this was the speed of the rebound after the massive drop during the global financial crisis. Within just 5 quarters, net inflows rose from their early 2009 trough to their mid-2010 peak—a mere one-fifth of the time that typically elapsed between troughs and peaks in the cycle of capital flows during the pre-Asian crisis period.
Another twelve months on, what we’re seeing is not really all that “exceptional”—a point often overlooked in the current debate on capital inflows to emerging markets. Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Asian crisis, capital flows, emerging Asia, external buffers, financial risk, financial stability, global financial crisis, Macroeconomic policies, macroprudential policies, monetary policy, monetary transmission, overheating, portfolio flows, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, risky assets | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 27, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Aditya Narain and İnci Ötker-Robe
Folklore is riddled with tales of a lone actor undoing a titan: David and Goliath; Heracles and Atlas; Jack and the Beanstalk, to name a few.
Financial institutions seen as too important to fail have become even larger and more complex since the global crisis. We need look no further than the example of investment bank Lehman Brothers to understand how one financial institution’s failure can threaten the global financial system and create devastating effects to economies around the world. Continue reading
Filed under: Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bailout, Basel III, capital requirements, crisis prevention, financial disclosure, financial institutions, financial stability, financial supervision, global financial system, investment bank, market discipline, moral hazard, resolution regime, systemic collapse, systemic risk, too big to fail, too important to fail | 3 Comments »
Posted on April 13, 2011 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
In various guises, the “Year of Living Dangerously” has been used to describe the global financial crisis, the policy response to the crisis, and its aftermath.
But, we’ve slipped well beyond a year and the financial system is still flirting with danger. Durable financial stability has, so far, proven elusive.
Financial stability risks may have eased, reflecting improvements in the economic outlook and continuing accommodative policies. But those supportive policies—while necessary to restart the economy—have also masked serious, underlying financial vulnerabilities that need to be addressed as quickly as possible. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: asset quality, balance sheets, bank credit, bank restructuring, banking system, capital buffers, capital controls, capital inflows, debt sustainability, financial imbalances, financial sector risk, financial stability, global financial crisis, Global Financial Stability Report, government debt, household indebtedness, macroprudential policies, medium-term fiscal consolidation, overheating, sovereign funding | 5 Comments »
Posted on April 11, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
The world economic recovery is gaining strength, but it remains unbalanced.
Three numbers tell the story. We expect the world economy to grow at about 4.5 percent a year in both 2011 and 2012, but with advanced economies growing at only 2.5 percent, while emerging and developing economies grow at a much higher 6.5 percent.
On the good news side. Earlier fears of a double dip—which we did not share—have not materialized. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: bank recapitalization, capital controls, capital inflows, commodity prices, economic recovery, exchange rate, Financial regulation, financial stability, financial supervision, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Stimulus, fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations, inventory cycle, macroprudential policies, policy coordination, potential output, private demand, unemployment, World Economic Outlook | 8 Comments »
Posted on April 8, 2011 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
When the global financial system was thrown into crisis, many policymakers were shocked to discover a gaping hole in their policy toolkit.
They have since made significant progress in developing macroprudential policy measures aimed at containing system-wide risks in the financial sector. Yet progress has been uneven. Greater efforts are needed to transform this policy patchwork into an effective crisis-prevention toolkit.
Given the enormous economic and human cost of the recent financial debacle, I strongly believe that we cannot afford to miss this opportunity for substantial reform. Continue reading
Filed under: Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, G-20, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital requirements, credit growth, crisis prevention, financial stability, global financial crisis, global financial system, loan-to-value ratio, macroprudential policies, macroprudential regulation, regulatory arbitrage, systemic risk | 9 Comments »
Posted on March 25, 2011 by iMFdirect
Guest post by Michael Spence, New York University,
Professor Emeritus Stanford University, and
co-host of the Conference on Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis
It was a privilege to participate in the IMF conference devoted to rethinking policy frameworks in the wake of the crisis. Highly encouraging was the openness of the discussion, the range of views, the willingness to question orthodoxy, and the posture of humility.
One gets the impression that the crisis has triggered a response that it should trigger, and we have embarked on a path of rethinking conceptual frameworks and policy choices in a way that will contribute to the stability of the system.
That said, the good news is that we recognize that in finance and parts of macroeconomics the models or frameworks are incomplete. That represents a challenge to the academic community. But it also means that, in the short run, participants and regulators will be operating with incomplete models. This will require judgments (which will be uncomfortable in contrast to the earlier sense of certainty). There will be mistakes. And, as Olivier Blanchard said in his excellent summary, we will proceed step-by-step, evaluating the impacts of policy choices and sometimes reversing course. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic research, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Financial regulation, financial risk, financial stability, financial system, high-frequency trading, leverage, macroeconomic frameworks, macroeconomic models, macroeconomic stability, policy instruments, policy targets, structural changes | 10 Comments »