After a Golden Decade, Can Latin America Keep Its Luster?

Posted on May 6, 2013 by iMFdirect

Alejandro WernerBy Alejandro Werner

(Versions in Español and Português)

Latin America continues to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world, even though growth slowed down a bit in 2012. Many economies in the region are operating at or near potential, inflation remains generally low, and unemployment is at historically low levels.

In the near term, the region will continue to benefit from easy external financing and relatively high commodity prices. In our May 2013 Regional Economic Outlook, we project that the region will expand by about 3½ percent in 2013. In Brazil—the region’s largest economy—economic activity is strengthening, driven by improving external demand, measures to boost investment, and the impact of earlier policy easing. In the rest of Latin America, output growth is expected to remain near potential.

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Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Resolutions for the Fiscal New Year—Staying on Track Is No Easy Task

Posted on February 4, 2013 by iMFdirect

by Carlo Cottarelli and Philip Gerson

Version in Español and عربي

We’re one month into 2013, and if past experience is any guide, by now many people will have all but forgotten the promises they made about the things they planned to do over the coming year.

It’s a time-honored tradition in many countries for people to make resolutions at the New Year, usually involving things that are good for them, like achieving a healthier weight. Unfortunately, it’s also traditional that these commitments quickly fall by the wayside, only to be taken up again next year, usually with the same results.

But unlike many of these resolutions, the ones made by most advanced economies to reduce their 2012 fiscal deficits were by and large kept. The average headline deficit in these countries fell by about ¾ percent of GDP last year, bringing the cumulative deficit decline to 3 percent of GDP since budget shortfalls peaked in 2009. This is good news.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

We May Have Avoided the Cliffs, But We Still Face High Mountains

Posted on January 23, 2013 by iMFdirect

WEO

by Olivier Blanchard

Version in Español  and عربي

Optimism is in the air, particularly in financial markets. And some cautious optimism may indeed be justified.

Compared to where we were at the same time last year, acute risks have decreased. The United States has avoided the fiscal cliff, and the euro explosion in Europe did not occur. And uncertainty is lower.

But we should be under no illusion. There remain considerable challenges ahead. And the recovery continues to be slow, indeed much too slow.

(more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Building on Latin America’s Success

Posted on December 6, 2012 by iMFdirect

Christine Lagarde

By Christine Lagarde

(Version in Español)

Next week, I will travel to Latin America—my second visit to the region since November 2011. I return with increased optimism, as much of Latin America continues its impressive transformation that started a decade ago.

The region remains resilient to the recent bouts in global volatility, and many countries continue to expand at a healthy pace. An increasing number of people are escaping the perils of poverty to join a growing and increasingly vibrant middle class.

(more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Español, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Taking Stock: Public Finances Now Stronger in Many Countries

Posted on October 9, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Carlo Cottarelli

(Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)

The slow global recovery is making fiscal adjustment more difficult around the world, but this doesn’t mean that little has been accomplished.

In fact, significant progress in many countries has been made during the past two years in strengthening their fiscal accounts after the 2008–09 deterioration.  The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress.

Deficits are lower, and in many cases debt is too

Let me first say something about advanced economies, which is where the most urgent fiscal problems exist.

Most advanced economies have made good progress lowering their fiscal deficits (the imbalance between spending and revenues). Deficits, adjusted for the economic cycle, fell by about ¾ of a percentage point of GDP in 2011 and 2012, and are projected to do so by about 1 percentage point of GDP in 2013.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Low-income countries, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Risks to Financial Stability Increase, Bold Action Needed

Posted on July 17, 2012 by iMFdirect

By José Viñals

(Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)

Our latest update of the Global Financial Stability Report has three key messages.

First, financial stability risks have increased, because of escalating funding and market pressures and a weak growth outlook.

Second, the measures agreed at the recent European leaders’ summit provide significant steps to address the immediate crisis, but more is needed. Timely implementation and further progress on banking and fiscal unions must be a priority.

And third, time is running out. Now is the moment for strong political leadership, because tough decisions will need to be made to restore confidence and ensure lasting financial stability in both advanced and emerging economies. It is time for action.

Now, why have financial stability risks increased?

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Europe, Financial Crisis, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

World Faces Weak Economic Recovery

Posted on July 16, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)

The global recovery continues, but the recovery is weak; indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April.

In the Euro zone, growth is close to zero, reflecting positive but low growth in the core countries, and negative growth in most periphery countries.  In the United States, growth is positive, but too low to make a serious dent to unemployment.

Growth has also slowed in major emerging economies, from China to India and Brazil.

Downside risks, coming primarily from Europe, have increased.

Let me develop these themes in turn.

(more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

India: Linked or De-linked from the Global Economy?

Posted on October 25, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Anoop Singh

With economic growth expected to continue at a reasonably good clip this year and next, it’s all too easy to think there’s not much to worry about. Even as Diwali celebrations begin across India, the outlook for the world economy is fairly uneven and uncertain. More worrisome than the subdued global growth outlook, risks are building up especially in Europe—and these include an extreme scenario with financial disruption.

Although India’s economy has generally been less prone to external forces than many others, we still need to contend with the larger than typical risks in the global economy. These risks harken the need for a new wave of reforms.

What does the more somber darker global outlook mean for India? And exactly what policies are needed? (more…)

Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Growing Pains: Europe’s Dilemma

Posted on October 21, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Bas Bakker

(Versions in Español and Français )

As the crisis in Europe deepens, it is worth asking how it all went wrong in the first place. In the past decade there have been stark differences in per capita GDP growth in Europe. Growth rates have ranged from close to zero in Italy and Portugal to more than 4 percent in the best performers. Why do some countries in Europe grow much faster than others? And how can those falling behind catch up before it is too late?

In part, these differences reflect “convergence”. It is much easier for poor countries to grow faster than it is for rich countries because they can import technology they do not already have. It is much more difficult to grow fast if you are already rich and at the technology frontier—now you can only get richer by innovation.

(more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments »

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