Posted on September 21, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Carlo Cottarelli
(Versions in عربي, Français, 中文 and Русский)
In the midst of jittery financial markets, and global economic doom and gloom, it’s easy to become pessimistic. Perhaps too much so; amid what seems like a steady drum beat of bad news, one can lose sight of what has been achieved over the last couple of years.
Public debt and fiscal deficits in many advanced economies remain very high. Nevertheless, important progress has been made in fiscal adjustment in many advanced economies. For most countries, government deficits have fallen substantially—by 2¼ percentage points of GDP on average compared to two years ago.
The fiscal outlook in most countries is stronger than we expected two years ago. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: economic growth, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, government debt, government deficits, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, job-creating growth, medium-term fiscal consolidation, public debt | 1 Comment »
Posted on September 20, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in عربي, Français, Español and Русский)
The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase. The recovery has weakened considerably, and downside risks have increased sharply. Strong policies are urgently needed to improve the outlook and reduce risks.
Growth, which had been strong in 2010, decreased in 2011. We had forecast some slowdown, due mainly to fiscal consolidation. One-time events, such as the tragic earthquake in Japan, offered plausible explanations for a further slowdown. The initial U.S. data also understated the size of the slowdown. Now that the numbers are in, it is clear that more was going on. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: bank balance sheets, bank capital, bank lending, current account deficits, current accout surpluses, downside risks, economic forecasts, economic rebalancing, external rebalancing, financial volatility, fiscal consolidation, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, low growth, medium-term fiscal consolidation, Olivier Blanchard, private demand, public debt, public deficits, sovereign bonds, weak balance sheets, World Economic Outlook, world growth | 14 Comments »
Posted on April 28, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
(Version in 中文, 日本語 and 한국어)
As the economic recovery has matured across much of Asia, the region has continued to be a driving force in the strengthening global recovery. Yet, recent tragic events—around the globe, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan—are an all too poignant reminder of the fragility of our economic circumstances and, indeed, life.
Much of this weighs on my mind as I am here in Hong Kong to launch our April 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific. While the outlook is by no means gloomy, it is an opportune time to consider how Asia should manage the next phase of growth. (more…)
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital inflows, commodity prices, domestic demand, economic growth, economic recovery, exports, financial risk, fiscal consolidation, global imbalances, global recovery, Macroeconomic policies, overheating, poverty, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, unemployment | Comments Off
Posted on April 12, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Carlo Cottarelli
Undertaking a sizable fiscal adjustment is a lot like driving up a tall mountain: it’s hard work, it can take a long time, and you don’t want to run out of fuel partway up the incline. Countries are starting the climb, cutting back government deficits and debt levels, but according to our analysis often current plans aren’t enough to get countries where they need and want to go.
The plans in place are large by historical standards, which brings with it difficult choices, and particular risks and uncertainties. Let me fill you in on what these are. (more…)
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: bank recapitalization, cyclically adjusted balance, debt sustainability, fiscal adjustment, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal sustainability, government debt, interest rate-growth differential, medium-term fiscal consolidation, primary budget balance, public debt, sovereign risks | 1 Comment »
Posted on April 11, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
The world economic recovery is gaining strength, but it remains unbalanced.
Three numbers tell the story. We expect the world economy to grow at about 4.5 percent a year in both 2011 and 2012, but with advanced economies growing at only 2.5 percent, while emerging and developing economies grow at a much higher 6.5 percent.
On the good news side. Earlier fears of a double dip—which we did not share—have not materialized. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: bank recapitalization, capital controls, capital inflows, commodity prices, economic recovery, exchange rate, Financial regulation, financial stability, financial supervision, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Stimulus, fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations, inventory cycle, macroprudential policies, policy coordination, potential output, private demand, unemployment, World Economic Outlook | 8 Comments »
Posted on February 1, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Carlo Cottarelli
(Version in Español)
As we said in the just-published Fiscal Monitor update, fiscal policy this year in some leading advanced economies is shaping up to be quite different from what was expected just last November.
The United States and Japan are delaying their earlier plans to reduce their public deficits, choosing instead to provide further support to their economies. The change in plans is even more remarkable if you look at the cyclically adjusted balance. You can see this in the charts. Some of the change in the fiscal stance with respect to our earlier projections is attributable to the somewhat better than projected fiscal results in 2010, a point to which I will return in a moment. Most of it, however, is due to additional stimulus measures introduced during the last two months. These two countries need to strengthen their fiscal adjustment credentials by detailing the measures they will adopt to lower deficits and debt over the medium term. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: commodity prices, cyclically adjusted balance, fiscal consolidation, fiscal institutions, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, general government balance, government debt, medium-term fiscal consolidation, public debt, sovereign risk | 2 Comments »
Posted on January 28, 2011 by iMFdirect
Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, fiscal challenges in advanced economies, concerns about overheating in emerging market countries, and the impact of rising food prices. These are the hot topics at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and a clear sign of the tensions and risks as the global economy recovers.
In a video interview from Davos, IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky tells us that, with the return of global growth, the mood is certainly more optimistic than it was a year or two ago. But there is also a clear sense among delegates that this has not solved some of the world’s important economic problems. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: commodity prices, Europe, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Global Financial Stability Report, global imbalances, global recovery, inflationary pressures, sovereign debt, World Economic Forum, World Economic Outlook | 3 Comments »
Posted on January 25, 2011 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
(Version in Español | 中文 | Français | 日本語 | Русский | عربي )
This morning, I presented our latest views on global financial stability in Johannesburg, South Africa.
So, where does the global financial system stand at the moment? Yes, we have witnessed improvements recently, but we are also observing a dichotomy between the economy and the financial system. While the global economic recovery has been continuing, financial stability is still at risk, because of a persistent lack of investor confidence in some advanced country sovereigns and their banking systems.
At this cross-roads, we see three key messages. (more…)
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bank capital, bank funding, banking systems, capital flows, credit risks, European Financial Stability Facility, financial crisis, financial stability, financial supervision, fiscal consolidation, Global Financial Stability Report, prudential regulation, public debt, sovereign risk | 2 Comments »