Fiscal Glass is Half Full: Some Reasons for Optimism

Posted on September 21, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Carlo Cottarelli

(Versions in عربي, Français, 中文 and  Русский)

In the midst of jittery financial markets, and global economic doom and gloom, it’s easy to become pessimistic. Perhaps too much so; amid what seems like a steady drum beat of bad news, one can lose sight of what has been  achieved over the last couple of years.

Public debt and fiscal deficits in many advanced economies remain very high. Nevertheless, important progress has been made in fiscal adjustment in many advanced economies. For most countries, government deficits have fallen substantially—by 2¼ percentage points of GDP on average compared to two years ago.


The fiscal outlook in most countries is stronger than we expected two years ago. (more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Christine Lagarde on Sovereign Debt, Growth and Social Instability

Posted on July 26, 2011 by iMFdirect

by iMFdirect

The IMF chief gave a speech in New York City today that sets out how the IMF can help countries tackle this troika of challenges to the global economy.

 Watch the speech

 

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Employment, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Keeping Asia from Overheating

Posted on May 19, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Anoop Singh

Asia’s vigorous pace of growth has seen the region play a leading role in the global recovery. But, there are also now growing signs of price pressure across the region’s goods and asset markets.

Headline inflation in Asia has accelerated since October 2010, mainly owing to higher commodity prices. There are, of course, variations in how much this has affected inflation across Asia, partly reflecting differences in the shares of food and energy items in expenditures.

But there are signs that higher commodity prices are spilling over to a more generalized increase in inflation. (more…)

Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

The Next Phase of Asia’s Economic Growth

Posted on April 28, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Anoop Singh

(Version in 中文,  日本語 and 한국어)

As the economic recovery has matured across much of Asia, the region has continued to be a driving force in the strengthening global recovery. Yet, recent tragic events—around the globe, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan—are an all too poignant reminder of the fragility of our economic circumstances and, indeed, life.

Much of this weighs on my mind as I am here in Hong Kong to launch our April 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific. While the outlook is by no means gloomy, it is an opportune time to consider how Asia should manage the next phase of growth. (more…)

Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Shifting Gears: Where the Rubber Meets the Fiscal Road

Posted on April 12, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Carlo Cottarelli

Undertaking a sizable fiscal adjustment is a lot like driving up a tall mountain: it’s hard work, it can take a long time, and you don’t want to run out of fuel partway up the incline. Countries are starting the climb, cutting back government deficits and debt levels, but according to our analysis often current plans aren’t enough to get countries where they need and want to go.

The plans in place are large by historical standards, which brings with it difficult choices, and particular risks and uncertainties. Let me fill you in on what these are. (more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Global Recovery Strengthens, Tensions Heighten

Posted on April 11, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Olivier Blanchard

The world economic recovery is gaining strength, but it remains unbalanced.

Three numbers tell the story. We expect the world economy to grow at about 4.5 percent a year in both 2011 and 2012, but with advanced economies growing at only 2.5 percent, while emerging and developing economies grow at a much higher 6.5 percent.

On the good news side. Earlier fears of a double dip—which we did not share—have not materialized. (more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

The Long and the Short of It—Government Debt Plans in 2011 and Beyond

Posted on February 1, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Carlo Cottarelli

(Version in Español)

As we said in the just-published Fiscal Monitor update, fiscal policy this year in some leading advanced economies is shaping up to be quite different from what was expected just last November.

The United States and Japan are delaying their earlier plans to reduce their public deficits, choosing instead to provide further support to their economies. The change in plans is even more remarkable if you look at the cyclically adjusted balance. You can see this in the charts. Some of the change in the fiscal stance with respect to our earlier projections is attributable to the somewhat better than projected fiscal results in 2010, a point to which I will return in a moment. Most of it, however, is due to additional stimulus measures introduced during the last two months. These two countries need to strengthen their fiscal adjustment credentials by detailing the measures they will adopt to lower deficits and debt over the medium term. (more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

“Combination of Worries” Gets Attention in Davos

Posted on January 28, 2011 by iMFdirect

By iMFdirect

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, fiscal challenges in advanced economies, concerns about overheating in emerging market countries, and the impact of rising food prices. These are the hot topics at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and a clear sign of the tensions and risks as the global economy recovers.

In a video interview from Davos, IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky tells us that, with the return of global growth, the mood is certainly more optimistic than it was a year or two ago. But there is also a clear sense among delegates that this has not solved some of the world’s important economic problems. (more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Time Waits for No Man: How to Secure Financial Stability in 2011

Posted on January 25, 2011 by iMFdirect

By José Viñals

(Version in Español | 中文 | Français | 日本語 | Русский | عربي )

This morning, I presented our latest views on global financial stability in Johannesburg, South Africa.

So, where does the global financial system stand at the moment? Yes, we have witnessed improvements recently, but we are also observing a dichotomy between the economy and the financial system. While the global economic recovery has been continuing, financial stability is still at risk, because of a persistent lack of investor confidence in some advanced country sovereigns and their banking systems.

At this cross-roads, we see three key messages. (more…)

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Financial sector supervision, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

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