Posted on September 10, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Francesco Columba and Jarkko Turunen
(Versión en español)
photo: Patrick H. Corkery/DoD/Sipa USA/Newscom
After more than five years of exceptionally low interest rates, the U.S. Fed is getting closer to the point of managing a liftoff of policy interest rates from close to zero. As of today, liftoff is expected to take place by around mid-2015.
But this is not set in stone. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized that the timing will depend on the state of the U.S. economy. If things look better, policy rates may increase earlier. Conversely, weaker than expected data may well mean that interest rates will move up later.
In our view, based on our most recent economic projections, there is some scope for policy rates to stay at zero for a little while longer than mid-2015, given the remaining slack in the labor market and still low inflation.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Employment, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: fiscal policy, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, unemployment, United States, US Federal Reserve | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 3, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Doris Ross
Three months ago African leaders and policymakers assembled in Mozambique under an “Africa Rising” banner to assess the continent’s strong economic performance. But while the outlook for the continent remains strong, individual countries have faced problems and the uncertain global outlook continues to pose risks. Against this backdrop, what are the policies that Africa should pursue to sustain the positive momentum for the continent?
In reality, Africa Rising has never been about unbridled optimism; it has been a tale of strong growth tempered by serious challenges. And rising in economic terms is as much about sustaining expansion as about the dimensions of growth itself. The extended process of African development also requires increased resilience to shocks, and it is this resilience that may be tested by economic problems in some African nations.
Strong growth—and increased resilience—were the focus of the Africa Rising conference organized in May by the IMF and the government of Mozambique in Maputo. The nearly 1,000 officials, corporate executives, civil society representatives, and journalists who gathered for the two-day event discussed the difficult issues that must be addressed if Africa is to maintain its upward trajectory of the past two decades.
Filed under: Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, Reform | Tagged: Africa, agriculture, book launch, capacity building, coal, fiscal policy, Mozambique, natural gas, poverty reduction, private sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, tax regimes | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 17, 2014 by iMFdirect
Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the IMF for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that in general deficit reduction proceed steadily, but gradually, positions the IMF between the fiscal doves (who argue for postponing fiscal adjustment altogether) and the fiscal hawks (who argue for a front-loaded adjustment).
All this is highlighted in a recently released book Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy, edited by Carlo Cottarelli, Philip Gerson and Abdelhak Senhadji, that brings together the analysis underpinning the IMF’s position on the evolving role of fiscal policy. The book underscores how the global financial crisis has reshaped our understanding of the role of fiscal policy with topics that include a historical view of debt accumulation; the timing, size, and composition of fiscal stimulus packages in advanced and emerging economies; the heated debate surrounding the size of fiscal multipliers and the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool and more.
Check out this book, which is written for a wide audience, and watch the webcast of the book launch hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics on July 14 .
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: book launch, debt, fiscal adjustment, fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 19, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Min Zhu
(Version in 中文,Français, Português, and Español)
There is a group of fast-growing low-income countries that are attracting international investor interest—frontier economies. Understanding who they are, how they are different, and how they have moved themselves to the frontier matters for the global economy because they combine huge potential with big risks.
Get to know them
The first thing to note is that some of these countries already have moved to the lower-middle income group. While a working definition of frontier economies is subject to further discussion, broadly speaking, these countries have been deepening their financial markets, such as Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria, Mozambique, and Vietnam.
Filed under: Africa, Asia, Emerging Markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, LICs, Low-income countries | Tagged: Bangladesh, Bolivia, fiscal policy, Ghana, iMFdirect, Kenya, monetary policy, Mozambique, Nigeria, services sector, Tanzania, Vietnam | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 30, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam
(Version in Русский and Español)
Even before geopolitical tensions unleashed currency flight, bank deposit withdrawals and surging risk premiums, Ukraine faced serious challenges. The crisis there has been years in the making, reflecting deep structural problems that left it vulnerable to periodic funding shortfalls and near the bottom of transition country league tables. Thus, any program to tackle the immediate crisis in Ukraine must inevitably come to grips with this legacy.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: energy, euro area, exchange rate flexibility, fiscal policy, Russia, transparency, Ukraine | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 24, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette M. Sayeh
(Version in Français)
Once again, the latest review of growth prospects for sub-Saharan Africa shows that the region’s economy is in strong health. Growth in the region is set to pick up to 5½ percent in 2014 compared to 4.9 percent last year (see Chart 1). My view is that this growth momentum will continue over the medium term if countries rise to new challenges and manage their economies as dexterously as they have over the past decade or so.
So what explains this continued strong growth performance? Apart from good macroeconomic policies in the region, the growth has been underpinned by investment in infrastructure, mining, and strong agricultural output. And favorable global tailwinds—high demand for commodities and low interest rates—have played a major supporting role.
Filed under: Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Français, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Português | Tagged: China, Democratic Republic of Congo, exports, fiscal policy, infrastructure, investment, Liberia, public finances, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Sudan, spillover effects, Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 8, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
For yet a third year I have kept my tradition of starting the New Year with a visit to Sub-Saharan Africa—a region that truly offers great promise! As the world economy has remained focused on the crisis of the advanced economies, Africa has quietly forged ahead with strong growth led by a vibrant private sector and surging foreign investment. Over the past decade Sub-Saharan Africa has posted growth averaging 5.6 percent a year.
The countries of East Africa have done especially well. So what better place to begin my travels this year than in Kenya, which has emerged as one of the region’s “frontier economies”—countries whose recent performance is propelling them toward middle-income status.
Filed under: Africa, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: Africa, business, development, fiscal policy, growth, iMFdirect, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, jobs, Kenya, regional integration, Sub-Saharan Africa | 1 Comment »