Posted on December 16, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Min Zhu
(version in Español)
The growth story for frontier economies isn’t the same as China’s in the last two decades, or the United States a hundred years ago. These fast growing, low-income countries have their own story, and it’s not what you might think.
In May of this year, I wrote about who they are and how they are different, and now I want to go into a bit more detail about how their economies have been on the rise and how they have moved themselves to the frontier.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, Reform | Tagged: agriculture, Bangladesh, capital markets, China, commodiity prices, diversify growth, fiscal policy, frontier economies, low-income countries, manufacturing, Min Zhu, monetary policy, Mozambique, natural resources, oil prices, Tanzania, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 15, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Gregorio Impavido and Uffe Mikkelsen
(Version in Türk)
Turkey is going through a time of economic transition, with slowing growth that risks the country being caught in a “middle-income trap,” unable to join the ranks of high income economies.
The country grew at 6 percent per year on average in the period 2010-13, with policies supportive of domestic consumption. This has generated a large current account deficit, mostly financed by short-term capital flows. The reliance on consumption at the expense of investment, slow export growth, and sizable investment needs have hurt potential growth, with the economy already growing more modestly. Moreover, Turkey’s low domestic savings and competitiveness challenges have limited investment as well as exports, which have also suffered from the slow growth in Europe.
With current policies, Turkey’s economy is expected to grow only 3.5 percent annually over the next five years. Going forward, the economy must be rebalanced to make it more competitive and to restore output and employment growth.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: Article IV, banking sector, economic rebalancing, Europe, fiscal policy, inflation, Macroeconomic policies, middle income countries, savings, Turkey | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 26, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven, and Esteban Vesperoni
The last five years have been a reminder of the importance of interconnections and risks in the global economy. They have triggered intense discussions on the optimal way to combine fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to deal with spillovers, and on the need and the scope for coordination of such policies.
The IMF’s 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, which took place in Washington DC on November 13 and 14, 2014, focused on Cross-Border Spillovers, and took stock of what we know and do not know. The summary below picks and chooses some papers, and does not do justice to the full set of papers presented and discussed at the conference. They can all be downloaded, and videos of each session are available, at www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2014/arc.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, G-20, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: banks, capital flows, European Central Bank, exchange rate, Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, G-20, global economy, global trade, IMF Annual Research Conference, Italy, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, public spending, Spain, spillovers, unconventional monetary policy, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 11, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Bertrand Gruss and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
(version in Español and Português)
China is still a distant and exotic country in the mind of many people in Latin America. Yet, with the Asian giant rapidly expanding its ties with the region (the share of exports going to China is now ten times larger than in 2000), their economic fates seem to be increasingly connected. And in fact, a sharper slowdown in China now represents one of the key risks Latin Americans should be worried about—and prepare for. So, what is at stake? How much do shocks to China matter for economies in Latin America?
In an earlier study presented in our April 2014 Regional Economic Outlook, we analyzed growth spillovers in a large model of the global economy, focusing on the link through commodity prices. Here, we complement that analysis by using a simple yet novel approach that exploits the reaction of financial markets to the release of economic data. We find that growth surprises in China have a significant effect on market views about Latin American economies.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Español, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Politics | Tagged: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, commodiity prices, exchange rate, Finance & Development magazine, financial market, fiscal policy, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, spillovers, Turkey | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 8, 2014 by iMFdirect
by Vitor Gaspar
(version in Español, Français, 中文, Русский, and 日本語)
Unemployment remains unacceptably high in many countries. It increased dramatically during the Great Recession. Global unemployment currently exceeds 200 million people. An additional 13 million people are expected to be unemployed by 2018.
The most worrisome is youth unemployment. There are examples of advanced economies in Europe where youth unemployment surged above 50 percent. In several developing economies, job creation does not absorb the large number of young workers entering the labor force every year.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: bond markets, economic reform, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Great Recession, inflation, interest rates, labor market, public investment, structural policies, unemployment, youth unemployment | 2 Comments »
Posted on September 10, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Francesco Columba and Jarkko Turunen
(Versión en español)
photo: Patrick H. Corkery/DoD/Sipa USA/Newscom
After more than five years of exceptionally low interest rates, the U.S. Fed is getting closer to the point of managing a liftoff of policy interest rates from close to zero. As of today, liftoff is expected to take place by around mid-2015.
But this is not set in stone. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized that the timing will depend on the state of the U.S. economy. If things look better, policy rates may increase earlier. Conversely, weaker than expected data may well mean that interest rates will move up later.
In our view, based on our most recent economic projections, there is some scope for policy rates to stay at zero for a little while longer than mid-2015, given the remaining slack in the labor market and still low inflation.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Employment, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: fiscal policy, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, unemployment, United States, US Federal Reserve | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 3, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Doris Ross
Three months ago African leaders and policymakers assembled in Mozambique under an “Africa Rising” banner to assess the continent’s strong economic performance. But while the outlook for the continent remains strong, individual countries have faced problems and the uncertain global outlook continues to pose risks. Against this backdrop, what are the policies that Africa should pursue to sustain the positive momentum for the continent?
In reality, Africa Rising has never been about unbridled optimism; it has been a tale of strong growth tempered by serious challenges. And rising in economic terms is as much about sustaining expansion as about the dimensions of growth itself. The extended process of African development also requires increased resilience to shocks, and it is this resilience that may be tested by economic problems in some African nations.
Strong growth—and increased resilience—were the focus of the Africa Rising conference organized in May by the IMF and the government of Mozambique in Maputo. The nearly 1,000 officials, corporate executives, civil society representatives, and journalists who gathered for the two-day event discussed the difficult issues that must be addressed if Africa is to maintain its upward trajectory of the past two decades.
Filed under: Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, Reform | Tagged: Africa, agriculture, book launch, capacity building, coal, fiscal policy, Mozambique, natural gas, poverty reduction, private sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, tax regimes | Leave a comment »