Posted on October 6, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
Achieving a “strong, balanced, and sustained world recovery”—to quote from the goal set in Pittsburgh by the G-20—was never going to be easy. It requires much more than just going back to business as usual. It requires two fundamental and complex economic rebalancing acts.
First, internal rebalancing. When private demand collapsed, fiscal stimulus helped reduce the fall in output. This helped avoid the worst. But private demand must now become strong enough to take the lead and sustain growth, while fiscal stimulus gives way to fiscal consolidation.
The second is external rebalancing. Many advanced countries, most notably the United States, relied excessively on domestic demand before the crisis, and they must now rely more on net exports. Many emerging market countries, most notably China, had relied excessively on net exports, but must now look to domestic demand. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, G-20, growth, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: balanced and sustainable growth, capital inflows, downside risks, economic imbalances, financial reform, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Stimulus, global financial crisis, IMF World Economic Outlook, monetary accommodation, policy coordination, private domestic demand, private investment, rebalance global economy, sustainable recovery, unemployment | 10 Comments »
Posted on July 9, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
Asia’s leadership of the global economic recovery is continuing unabated. And, even though heightened risks mean there may be tough times ahead again, the region is well equipped to handle them.
Asia’s remarkably fast recovery from the global financial crisis continued in the first half of 2010, despite the recent tensions in global financial markets. In fact, GDP growth in the first quarter was generally stronger than we anticipated in our Regional Economic Outlook in April. And high-frequency indicators suggest that Asian economic activity remained brisk in the second quarter. Even more notable, this is true both for economies that escaped a recession in 2009, thanks to their relatively larger domestic demand bases (China, Indonesia, and India), and for the more export-oriented economies such as Japan, the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), and the rest of the ASEAN.
Two growth engines
What explains the strong economic momentum across the region? It is simple. The two “engines of growth” that spurred Asia’s recovery in 2009— exports and private domestic demand—have remained robust in 2010.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, growth | Tagged: ASEAN, Asia, Australia, capital flows, China, domestic demand, exports, Fiscal Stimulus, global economy, India, Indonesia, International Monetary Fund, Japan, New Zealand, policy stimulus, private domestic demand, regional economic outlook, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 19, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam
How time flies: only a year ago, we were in the throes of the biggest global crisis since the Great Depression. As the extent of the damage to institutions in financial centers became evident—starkly highlighted by the Lehman bankruptcy—and the crisis started to affect emerging market economies (EMs), a timely and coordinated countercyclical response was launched.
This helped stave off the worst of the crisis. The IMF supported the global response by increasing its resources and overhauling its lending framework to help those facing financing pressures. A recovery is now taking hold in many parts of the world.
Six months ago, we took a preliminary look at the design and performance of IMF-supported programs in emerging markets. In a forthcoming paper, we are casting a wider net—examining factors that determined the extent to which a broader group of EMs were affected by the crisis, the policy measures they have taken, factors shaping the ongoing recovery, and sustainability considerations over the medium term.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus | Tagged: asset price bubbles, capital flows, countercyclical policies, credit boom, credit bust, external debt, external vulnerability, Fiscal Stimulus, fixed exchange rates, international reserves, monetary stimulus | 1 Comment »
Posted on January 17, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Marek Belka
Much is riding on getting the timing of the exit right from the stimulative policies used to combat the global economic and financial crisis. This is something that IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has repeatedly emphasized. Exiting too early may jeopardize the recovery. But exiting too late may sow the seeds for the next crisis, as Wolfgang Munchau and others have argued recently. I also agree with Jean Pisani-Ferry and his colleagues that exiting in an uncoordinated fashion will lead to a renewed build up of financial instability.
To successfully unwind the extraordinary policy measures taken in response to the crisis, we need more than just a good sense of the state of the economic recovery and the degree of financial stability. We also need to know to what extent the global economy currently is influenced by those supportive policy measures. Is it safe yet to change course?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Europe, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal Stimulus, growth | Tagged: bank lending, Banking crisis, eastern Europe, ECB, Europe, European Central Bank, fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, G-20, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lucas Papademos, recovery, the euro, unemployment, Wolfgang Munchau, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 4, 2010 by iMFdirect
By John Lipsky
The year 2010 has opened amid generalized—–but tempered—optimism about the global economic and financial outlook.
The unprecedented scale and scope of the anti-crisis measures taken during the past year—and the unprecedented degree of multilateral policy coordination involved in their design and implementation—appear to have succeeded in averting a downturn of historic proportions.
The improved prospects are evident in economic data, in financial market performance, and in the marking up of economic forecasts. In fact, somewhat more upbeat expectations no doubt will be reflected in the regular January update of the IMF’s World Economic Outloook forecast.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: credit losses, domestic demand, Fiscal Stimulus, output gaps, Pittsburgh Summit, policy coordination | 6 Comments »
Posted on November 16, 2009 by iMFdirect
By Carlo Cottarelli
One obvious fallout of the global financial crisis is a huge deterioration in fiscal conditions, particularly in advanced countries. The numbers are nothing short of staggering. Gross general government debt in the G-20 advanced economies is projected to approach 120 percent of GDP by 2014, up from about 80 percent in 2007, and this is even assuming no renewal of fiscal stimulus beyond 2010.
Some might think that this comes from an “exotic” form of fiscal policy whereby governments opened their coffers to prop up financial institutions. But only a small part of this debt spike is matched by a rise in financial assets. It really boils down to “plain vanilla” deficits—revenue losses from the recession, fiscal stimulus, and some underlying spending increases that would have occurred even without a recession.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, IMF | Tagged: debt overhang, debt ratios, fiscal exit strategies, fiscal space, Fiscal Stimulus, government spending, health spending, pensions, population aging | 2 Comments »