Posted on August 5, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Jerry Schiff
(Versions in 日本語l and 中文)
Discussions in Japan of the “three arrows” of Abenomics—the three major components of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic plan to reflate the economy—are rampant among its citizens as well as economists, journalists and policy-makers worldwide. Even J-Pop groups are recording paeans to the economic policy named after the newly-elected premier. It is clear that “Abenomics” has been a remarkable branding success. But will it equally be an economic triumph?
We think it can be, and initial signs are positive. But such success is not assured. It will require difficult decisions as the country moves into largely uncharted territory. And much will depend on changing expectations within the country.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: Abenomics, Article IV, Bank of Japan, deflation, fiscal policy, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investment, Japan, monetary policy, public debt, quantitative easing, stimulus | 1 Comment »
Posted on June 10, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette M. Sayeh
Sub-Saharan Africa is the second fastest-growing region of the world today, trailing only developing Asia. This is remarkable compared to the current complicated state of the global economy, with Europe still struggling and the United States slowly on the mend.
In 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa maintained solid growth, with output growth at 5 percent on average. The factors that have supported the region through the Great Recession—strong investment, favorable commodity prices, and generally prudent macroeconomic management—continued to be at play.
Filed under: Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Français, growth, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, growth, investment, jobs, Malawi, regional economic outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania, unemployment | 1 Comment »
Posted on May 29, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Sebastián Sosa, Evridiki Tsounta, and Hye Sun Kim
(Versions in Español and Português)
Latin America has enjoyed strong growth during the last decade, with annual growth averaging 4½ percent compared with 2¾ in the 1980s and 1990s. What is behind this remarkable economic performance and will this growth be sustainable in the years ahead?
Our recent study (see also our working paper) looks at the supply-side drivers of growth for a large group of Latin American countries, to identify what’s behind the recent strong output performance.
Filed under: Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Español, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: capital, employment, GDP, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Labor, Latin America, output, productivity | Leave a Comment »
Posted on March 5, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam
Even before the latest euro area GDP numbers and Italian elections cast a shadow over the continent, economists were struggling to reconcile the steady improvement in market sentiment with the more downbeat data on the economy, production, orders, and jobs.
This video looks at this puzzle from a somewhat different perspective than the usual—and still correct—narrative of weak banks and over-indebted public sectors caught in a vicious cycle. More specifically, we examine the role of household and corporate balance sheets in the countries under financial market stress and the implications for policy priorities.
Filed under: International Monetary Fund | Tagged: balance sheets, banking union, corporate debt, demand, Europe, European Central Bank, European Union, fiscal policy, growth, household debt, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy | Leave a Comment »
Posted on January 28, 2013 by iMFdirect
by David Moore
Latvia’s economy has attracted international attention out of all proportion to its size. Many observers know that Latvia returned to strong economic growth after a severe downturn in 2008 and 2009 and a tough austerity program. In late 2012, Latvia even repaid the IMF in full, several years early.
But the international consensus ends there. Critics of Latvia’s economic strategy point to continuing high rates of unemployment and poverty; advocates point to the benefits of frontloading spending cuts and tax increases to lay the foundations for recovery.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Employment, Europe, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: credit, economic policy, economic reform, Economics, euro, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Latvia, poverty, unemployment, wages | 2 Comments »
Posted on January 23, 2013 by iMFdirect
by Olivier Blanchard
Version in Español and عربي
Optimism is in the air, particularly in financial markets. And some cautious optimism may indeed be justified.
Compared to where we were at the same time last year, acute risks have decreased. The United States has avoided the fiscal cliff, and the euro explosion in Europe did not occur. And uncertainty is lower.
But we should be under no illusion. There remain considerable challenges ahead. And the recovery continues to be slow, indeed much too slow.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: banking union, Brazil, capital flows, China, debt, developing economies, emerging economies, euro area, Europe, European Central Bank, financial markets, fiscal cliff, fiscal consolidation, fiscal crisis, fiscal policy, France, Germany, government bonds, government debt and deficits, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, India, inflation, International Monetary Fund, Italy, Japan, Outright Monetary Transactions, Spain, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | 5 Comments »
Posted on January 2, 2013 by iMFdirect
By David Lipton
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語)
With the New Year, we all hope to put the global financial crisis behind us. We also need to do more to secure our future.
Beyond our current economic and financial problems, there are long-term issues that we all know about, but that get too little attention in an era when policymakers are so fully engaged in slogging away at more immediate problems. Unfortunately, long-term issues unaddressed today will become crises tomorrow.
So we had better lengthen our focus, see what looms on the horizon, and do more to steer the global economy in a better direction.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: advanced economies, Climate change, crisis, David Lipton, developing economies, emerging markets, global economy, global warming, Globalization, growth, Hurricane Sandy, iMFdirect blog, structural reforms, technology | 7 Comments »
Posted on December 21, 2012 by iMFdirect
The planet’s most successful species are the great cooperators: ants, bees, termites, and humans.
In an article in the new issue of Finance & Development magazine, President Bill Clinton shares his experience working with governments, business, and civil society as part of his Clinton Global Initiative.
He says they are making the most progress in places where people have formed networks of creative cooperation where stakeholders come together to do things better, faster and cheaper than any could alone.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Civil Society, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: Africa, agriculture, Bolsa Familia, Brazil, business, business leaders, Canada, capital markets, Clinton Global Initiative, Coca-Cola, Colombia, cooperation, developing countries, domestic food security, Economics, economy, exports, farmers, Fundacíon Carlos Slim, Fundacíon Pies Descalzos, Gap Inc., governments, growth, Haiti, HIV/AIDS, IMF, iMFdirect, imports, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, investment, Ira Magaziner, Ireland, Latin America, Malawi, mining industry, networks, NGOs, Norway, philanthropists, poverty, President Bill Clinton, private sector, small and medium-sized enterprises, the United Kingdom, tourism, United Nations General Assembly, vocational training | 4 Comments »
Posted on December 17, 2012 by iMFdirect
by María González-Miranda
(Version in Español)
Four years after the Lehman Brothers crisis, private companies in the largest and most financially integrated Latin American countries are doing relatively well, despite continuous bouts of global uncertainty. Like firms in other high-performing emerging markets in Asia, companies in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru (the “LA5”) have benefited from abundant external financing, strong domestic credit, and generally robust demand growth.
These favorable conditions have resulted in robust corporate profitability and valuation, reasonably contained debt ratios, and lower short-term maturity exposures than those observed in other emerging markets.
But some vulnerabilities are starting to build up.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, corporate sector, currency, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, LA5, Latin America, María González-Miranda, Mexico, Peru, vulnerable | 1 Comment »
Posted on December 11, 2012 by iMFdirect
The head of the IMF Christine Lagarde has weighed in on the ongoing U.S. fiscal cliff debate. Three weeks before a series of automatic tax increases and spending cuts are due to kick in if lawmakers don’t reach a new deal, Lagarde said she favors a comprehensive fix, rather than a quick one.
“My view is that the best way forward is to have a balanced approached that takes into account both increasing revenues and cutting spending as well.”
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Christine Lagarde, CNN, entrepreneurs, Europe, fiscal cliff, government spending, growth, households, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investors, taxes, United States | 7 Comments »