Fiscal Consolidation: Striking the Right Balance

The debate on austerity vs. growth has gained in intensity, as countries in Europe and elsewhere struggle with low growth, high debt, and rising unemployment. In essence, policymakers are being asked to tackle a continuation of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. This would be no easy task under any circumstances. But it is made considerably harder by the fact that a number of countries need to engage in fiscal consolidation simultaneously. Complicating the picture further is the fact that monetary policy in most advanced economies is approaching the limits of what it technically can do to stimulate activity, while global growth remains weak.

How to Get the Balance Right: Fiscal Policy At a Time of Crisis

The crisis has harmed growth, increased unemployment, and left a large number of people less protected. We are now seeing some signs of stabilization. Most countries are reducing their deficits and even if debt ratios are still rising, the return back to fiscal health has begun.

The Art of Shifting Gear

The fact is, the global outlook underpins any turnaround in Asia and at this point, it could go either way: too early to declare victory over the forces of financial volatility and contagion. The art then is being prepared for either eventuality and policymakers should be ready to shift gears if, and when, circumstances warrant.

Making Goldilocks Happy

We have calculated that an increase in annual long-term economic growth of just a quarter of a percentage point could set in place a virtuous circle that would lead, after ten years, to a decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio by 6 percentage points. This is because higher growth makes it easier to run a primary surplus and lowers the public debt-to-GDP ratio directly. This in turn lowers the interest rate, which in turn boosts economic growth.

Mediocre Growth, High Risks, and The Long Road Ahead

Geopolitical tension affecting the oil market is surely a risk. The main risk remains, however, that of another acute crisis in Europe. The building of the “firewalls”, when it is completed, will represent major progress. By themselves, however, firewalls cannot solve the difficult fiscal, competitiveness, and growth issues that some of these countries face. Bad news on the macroeconomic or the political front still carries the risk of triggering the type of dynamics we saw last fall.

Africa’s Growth Puzzle: Better Ways to Fill Infrastructure Gaps

The issue of reviving or maintaining economic growth is a the forefront of policymakers’ minds all around the world. Of course, the policies needed to achieve that differ from region-to-region, country-to-country.

For many countries in Africa, weak infrastructure is an obstacle to raising growth.

In a recent interview with the IMF’s Survey online magazine, Andrew Berg of the IMF’s Research Department (and one of our contributing bloggers) discusses how Africa can step up investment in its infrastructure by augmenting traditional sources of financing with foreign borrowing and private investment.

Get the Basics in Economics from the IMF’s One-Stop Shop

The IMF’s Finance & Development magazine has just come out with a useful web compilation of stories in its Back to Basics series on economics. The page is aimed at students, academics, and those seeking a broader understanding of economic ideas. It pulls together articles from the “Back to Basics” column in the quarterly magazine that have been published since 2003.

The Impact of the Gloomier Global Outlook on Latin America

The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than our September forecasts.

In contrast, our forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.

Saudi Arabia: a Key Regional and Global Player

I leave the Middle East and North Africa region with a sense of hope and resolve to return to the region again soon.

I believe that with determination, the goals of the Arab reform agenda are within reach. Putting such reforms in place will help countries in the region both meet people’s aspirations and help them contribute even more to the rest of the world.

Hope and Perseverance on Tunisia’s Demanding Road Ahead

Tunisia is going through an inclusive process of transition, but faces some extraordinary challenges. I have heard from its leaders how Tunisia was the model that paved the way for the Arab Spring, and their firm belief that it remains capable of lighting the path forward for other countries going through historic changes in the region.

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