Posted on March 5, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda
(Version in Español, Français, Português, Русский, 中文)
There are a trillion reasons to care about who owns emerging market debt. That’s how much money global investors have poured into in these government bonds in recent years —$1 trillion. Who owns it, for how long and why it changes over time can shed light on the risks; a sudden reversal of money flowing out of a country can hurt. Shifts in the investor base also can have implications for a government’s borrowing costs.
What investors do next is a big question for emerging markets, and our new analysis takes some of the guesswork out of who owns your debt. The more you know your investors, the better you understand the potential risks and how to deal with them.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Debt Relief, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt | Tagged: balance sheets, Brazil, China, Colombia, debt, emerging market economies, Global Financial Stability Report, government debt, Indonesia, interest rates, Latvia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Uruguay | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 22, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Min Zhu
(Version in Français, Русский, 日本語, Português, عربي and 中文)
We had a big debate on emerging markets’ growth prospects at our Annual Meetings in October 2013. We lowered our 2013 growth forecast for emerging markets and developing economies by a whopping 0.5 percentage points compared to our earlier forecast. Some argued that we were too pessimistic. Others said that we should have stuck with the lower-growth scenario we had devised at the onset of the global financial crisis.
Fast forward to today. Indeed, most recent figures indicate that the engines of global growth—emerging markets and developing economies—have slowed significantly. Their growth rate dropped about 3 percentage points in 2013 from 2010 levels, with more than two thirds of countries seeing a decline— Brazil, China, and India lead the pack. This is important for the global economy, since these economies generate half of today’s global economic activity.
In my more recent travels around the world—five regions on three continents—I received the same questions everywhere: what is happening with the emerging markets? Is the slowdown permanent? Can emerging markets boost their growth? What are the downside risks?
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Brazil, central banks, China, commodiity prices, India, Indonesia, interest rates, international trade, Turkey | 1 Comment »
Posted on July 9, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
Asia’s leadership of the global economic recovery is continuing unabated. And, even though heightened risks mean there may be tough times ahead again, the region is well equipped to handle them.
Asia’s remarkably fast recovery from the global financial crisis continued in the first half of 2010, despite the recent tensions in global financial markets. In fact, GDP growth in the first quarter was generally stronger than we anticipated in our Regional Economic Outlook in April. And high-frequency indicators suggest that Asian economic activity remained brisk in the second quarter. Even more notable, this is true both for economies that escaped a recession in 2009, thanks to their relatively larger domestic demand bases (China, Indonesia, and India), and for the more export-oriented economies such as Japan, the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), and the rest of the ASEAN.
Two growth engines
What explains the strong economic momentum across the region? It is simple. The two “engines of growth” that spurred Asia’s recovery in 2009— exports and private domestic demand—have remained robust in 2010.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, growth | Tagged: ASEAN, Asia, Australia, capital flows, China, domestic demand, exports, Fiscal Stimulus, global economy, India, Indonesia, International Monetary Fund, Japan, New Zealand, policy stimulus, private domestic demand, regional economic outlook, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 22, 2010 by iMFdirect
(Version in 日本語)
Like geese flying in formation, the successive waves of Asian countries achieving economic takeoff and emerging or developed market status, has been likened to those migratory birds in flight. If this model is accurate, more Asian geese are set to join the flock of economically successful nations.
The “Flying Geese Paradigm” or ganko keitai was first conceived of by Japanese economist, Kaname Akamatsu in the 1930s as a way of explaining East Asian industrial development. According to Akamatsu, the lead goose in the formation, was Japan. The second tier consisted of newly industrialized economies—South Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR. Following hot on their tails were the ASEAN countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. More recent additions to the flock are China and India
Filed under: Asia, concessional lending, Economic Crisis, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: ASEAN, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Labor, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines | 1 Comment »