Posted on May 22, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alexander Klemm, Andre Meier, and Sebastián Sosa
(Version in Español)
Governments in most emerging economies, including in Latin America, have reduced their exposure to U.S. interest rates over the past decade, by issuing a greater share of public debt in domestic currencies.
Even so, sudden changes in U.S. interest rates still have the power to roil financial markets in emerging economies. Witness last year’s “taper tantrum”—when the Fed hinted at the possibility of tapering its bond purchases sooner than previously expected, causing bond yields to rise sharply. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Government, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Brazil, capital flows, emerging economies, emerging markets, financial stability, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, monetary policy, South Africa, taper tantrum, Treasury, Turkey, U.S. interest rates, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 21, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Serkan Arslanalp and Yingyuan Chen
As the financial market turbulence of May 2013 demonstrated, the timing and management of the U.S. Fed exit from unconventional monetary policy is critical. Our analysis in the latest Global Financial Stability Report suggests that if the U.S. exit is bumpy (Figure 1), although this is a tail risk and not our prediction, the result could lead to a faster rise in U.S long-term Treasury rates that impacts other bond markets. This could have implications not only for emerging markets, as widely discussed, but, also for other advanced economies.
Indeed, historical episodes show that sharp rises in US treasury rates lead to increases in government bond yields across other major advanced economies.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Finance, Financial regulation, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: banks, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, U.S. Treasury, United States | 2 Comments »
Posted on May 14, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong
Large banks were at the center of the recent financial crisis. The public dismay at costly but necessary bailouts of “too-big-to-fail” banks has triggered an active debate on the optimal size and range of activities of banks.
But this debate remains inconclusive, in part because the economics of an “optimal” bank size is far from clear. Our recent study tries to fill this gap by summarizing what we know about large banks using data for a large cross-section of banking firms in 52 countries.
We find that while large banks are riskier, and create most of the systemic risk in the financial system, it is difficult to determine an “optimal” bank size. In this setting, we find that the best policy option may not be outright restrictions on bank size, but capital—requiring large banks to hold more capital—and better bank resolution and governance.
Filed under: Economic research, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, Government, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: banking regulation, banks, big banks, financial markets, Financial regulation, financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, IMF, iMFdirect, iMFdirect blog, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 30, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Edda Zoli
(Version in 中文, and 日本語)
Booming real estate markets, rapid credit growth and—at least before the Fed’s tapering announcement last year—sustained capital inflows have raised financial stability challenges across many parts of Asia. To address them, policymakers have increasingly made use of macroprudential policies that address the stability of the financial system as a whole rather than that of individual institutions. In some cases they have also resorted to capital flow management measures to counter large capital inflows.
As new analysis in the IMF Asia and Pacific Department’s latest Regional Economic Outlook finds, macroprudential policies, especially measures related to the housing market, have helped mitigate the buildup of financial risks in Asia. In the event of sharp decreases in credit and asset prices going forward, however, it may become useful to ease certain of these measures to avoid excessive deleveraging.
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: IMF, International Monetary Fund, Macro-prudential policies: Asian perspectives, monetary policy, regional economic outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 8, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
For yet a third year I have kept my tradition of starting the New Year with a visit to Sub-Saharan Africa—a region that truly offers great promise! As the world economy has remained focused on the crisis of the advanced economies, Africa has quietly forged ahead with strong growth led by a vibrant private sector and surging foreign investment. Over the past decade Sub-Saharan Africa has posted growth averaging 5.6 percent a year.
The countries of East Africa have done especially well. So what better place to begin my travels this year than in Kenya, which has emerged as one of the region’s “frontier economies”—countries whose recent performance is propelling them toward middle-income status.
Filed under: Africa, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: Africa, business, development, fiscal policy, growth, iMFdirect, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, jobs, Kenya, regional integration, Sub-Saharan Africa | 1 Comment »
Posted on December 18, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Era Dabla-Norris and Kalpana Kochar
(Version in Español)
The era of remarkable growth in many emerging market economies fueled by cheap money and high commodity prices may very well be coming to an end.
The slowdown reflects not just inadequate global demand, but also structural factors that are rendering previous growth engines less effective, and the fact that economic “good times” reduced the incentives to implement further reforms to enhance productivity. With the end of the period of favorable global financing and trade conditions, the time is nigh for governments to make strong efforts to increase productivity—the essential foundation of sustainable growth and rising living standards. Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Finance, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: emerging markets, employment, financial markets, Financial regulation, financial supervision, growth, iMFdirect, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, Labor, productivity | 1 Comment »
Posted on August 5, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Jerry Schiff
(Versions in 日本語l and 中文)
Discussions in Japan of the “three arrows” of Abenomics—the three major components of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic plan to reflate the economy—are rampant among its citizens as well as economists, journalists and policy-makers worldwide. Even J-Pop groups are recording paeans to the economic policy named after the newly-elected premier. It is clear that “Abenomics” has been a remarkable branding success. But will it equally be an economic triumph?
We think it can be, and initial signs are positive. But such success is not assured. It will require difficult decisions as the country moves into largely uncharted territory. And much will depend on changing expectations within the country.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: Abenomics, Article IV, Bank of Japan, deflation, fiscal policy, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investment, Japan, monetary policy, public debt, quantitative easing, stimulus | 1 Comment »
Posted on August 1, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Jarkko Turunen
(Version in Español)
A year ago, we were very concerned about lingering weakness in the U.S. housing market, which we saw as a major obstacle to the economic recovery.
But what a difference a year makes! As our latest report on the U.S. economy points out, the housing market recovery has been stronger than expected, and is providing a significant boost to private domestic demand and economic growth.
What has changed in the last 12 months? House prices have rebounded sharply and are currently about 7-12 percent above their level a year ago. Home sales increased by more than 15 percent over the same time period. Thanks to higher house prices and the positive effects of government housing finance programs, fewer homeowners are “underwater” (owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth) or are behind on their mortgage payments, and fewer houses are entering foreclosure.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Employment, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt | Tagged: economic growth, Federal Reserve, house prices, housing, housing indicators, housing market, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, mortgages, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 30, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Deniz Igan
(Version in Español)
Much has changed on the fiscal front since we started worrying about U.S. fiscal sustainability. The federal government budget deficit has fallen sharply in recent years―from almost 12 percent of GDP in 2009 to less than 7 percent in 2012. And recent budget reports show that the deficit is shrinking faster than expected only a few months ago, to a projected 4½ percent of GDP for the current fiscal year, which ends September 30. Plus, health care cost growth has slowed down dramatically since the Great Recession, alleviating the pressure on public health care programs at least temporarily.
Does this mean we can stop worrying? Not quite. Recent developments certainly mean that things are better than we thought just a few years ago and the fiscal adjustment needed to restore sustainability is smaller. But if the choice and timing of policy measures is not right, the deficit reduction may turn out to be too much in the short run—stunting the economic recovery—and not enough in the long run.
So, in our recent annual check-up of the U.S. economy, our advice is to slow the pace of fiscal adjustment this year—which would help sustain growth and job creation—but to speed up putting in place a medium-term road map to restore long-run fiscal sustainability.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Article IV, deficits, economic recovery, fiscal sustainability, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, public debt, United States | 3 Comments »