Posted on November 7, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Evan Papageorgiou
When the U.S. Federal Reserve first mentioned in 2013 the prospect of a cutback in its bond buying program, markets had a “taper tantrum.” Many emerging markets saw large increases in volatility, even though outflows from their domestic markets were small and short-lived. Now the Fed has ended its bond buying and is looking ahead to rate hikes, and portfolio flows continue to arrive at the shores of emerging market economies. So everything’s fine, right? Not quite.
In our latest Global Financial Stability Report, we show that the large concentration of advanced economy capital invested in emerging markets acts as a conduit of shocks from the former to the latter.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: bonds, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, emerging market, euro area, Germany, Global Financial Stability Report, government bond, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, interest rates, investment, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Federal Reserve, United Kingdom, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 16, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Luis Brandão-Marques, Gaston Gelos, and Erik Oppers
The global financial crisis reminded us that banks often take risks that are excessive from society’s point of view and can damage the economy. In part, this is the result of the incentives embedded in compensation practices and of inadequate monitoring by stakeholders. Our analysis found the right policies could reduce banks risky behavior.
In our latest Global Financial Stability Report we take stock of recent developments in executive pay, corporate governance, and bank risk taking, and conduct a novel empirical analysis.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, Financial regulation, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform | Tagged: bank capital, banking sector, banks, financial system, Global Financial Stability Report, investment, policymakers, risk management, shareholders, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 12, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Sabina Bhatia
I know it might sound odd, but I actually like the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. I know the traffic snarls on Pennsylvania Avenue are terrible, Washington cabbies ruder than ever, lots of men in dark suits (and sadly, they are still mostly men), and there is the constant rush from meeting to meeting.
But beyond the long lines, long hours, cold coffee and the constant buzz of communiqués, press releases, and scores of official meetings, I find my place in the rich and stimulating discussions among the non-official community.
This year, over 600 civil society organizations, including members of parliament, academics, and several youth and labor groups, came to the meetings. They deliberated, discussed and debated some thorny issues. The burning issues close to their hearts? Not that different from what officials are also debating. Here is some of what I heard:
Filed under: Africa, Annual Meetings, Civil Society, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Global Governance, IMF | Tagged: academics, civil society organizations, debt, ebola, inequality, infrastructure, investment, jobs, Labor, parliament, recovery, unemployment, women, youth | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 3, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Gaston Gelos and Nico Valckx
Shadow banking has grown by leaps and bounds around the world in the last decade. It is now worth over $70 trillion. We take a closer look at what has driven this growth to help countries figure out what policies to use to minimize the risks involved.
In our analysis, we’ve found that shadow banks are both a boon and a bane for countries. Many people are worried about institutions that provide credit intermediation, borrow and lend money like banks, but are not regulated like them and lack a formal safety net. The largest shadow banking markets are in the United States and Europe, but in emerging markets, they have also expanded very rapidly, albeit from a low base.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics | Tagged: banks, euro area, Financial Stability Board, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, interest rates, investment, shadow banking, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 30, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Abdul Abiad, Davide Furceri, and Petia Topalova
Infrastructure is the backbone of well-functioning economies. Unfortunately, that backbone is becoming increasingly brittle in a number of advanced economies. For example, there has been a decline in the overall quality of infrastructure in the United States and Germany (Figure 1; see the FT 2014 and ASCE 2013 for more in infrastructure in the U.S., and Der Speigel 2014 and Kunert and Link 2013 for Germany). In many emerging market and developing economies, the expansion of the backbone has not kept pace with the broader economy, and this is stunting the ability of these economies to grow.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt, Reform | Tagged: Brazil, emerging market, Germany, India, infrastructure, investment, Macroeconomic policies, public investment, South Africa, taxes, the Philippines, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 25, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan
(Versión en español)
Today’s Pop Quiz: What do Oregon and New Mexico have in common? What could possibly link the spectacular vistas of Crater Lake to the glistening White Sands?
Answer: One link is these two states have the highest share of computer and electronic production in the entire United States. Think Intel in the Silicon Forest or Los Alamos. They also rank similarly in information technology usage by their businesses.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: consumption, exports, human capital, investment, Labor, labor force, technology, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 26, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Evridiki Tsounta and Kalpana Kochhar
(Versions in Español)
Emerging market economies have been experiencing strong growth, with annual growth for the period 2000-12 averaging 4¾ percent per year—a full percentage point higher than in the previous two decades. In the last two to three years, however, growth in most emerging markets has been cooling off, in some cases quite rapidly.
Is the recent slowdown just a hiccup or a sign of a more chronic condition? To answer this question, we first looked at the factors behind this strong growth performance.
Our new study finds that increases in employment and the accumulation of capital, such as buildings and machinery, continue to be the main drivers of growth in emerging markets. Together they explain 3 percentage points of annual GDP growth in 2000–12, while improvements in the efficiency of the inputs of production—which economists call “total factor productivity”—explain 1 ¾ percentage points (Figure 1).
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East | Tagged: balance sheets, commodiity prices, emerging market, employment, investment, structural reforms, trade | Leave a comment »