It’s Unofficial!


DSC_7906By Sabina Bhatia 

I know it might sound odd, but I actually like the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. I know the traffic snarls on Pennsylvania Avenue are terrible, Washington cabbies ruder than ever, lots of men in dark suits (and sadly, they are still mostly men), and there is the constant rush from meeting to meeting.

But beyond the long lines, long hours, cold coffee and the constant buzz of communiqués, press releases, and scores of official meetings, I find my place in the  rich and stimulating discussions among the non-official community.

This year, over 600 civil society organizations, including members of parliament, academics, and several youth and labor groups, came to the meetings. They deliberated, discussed and debated some thorny issues. The burning issues close to their hearts? Not that different from what officials are also debating.  Here is some of what I heard:

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A Tale of Two States—Bringing Back U.S. Productivity Growth


By Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan 

(Versión en español)

Today’s Pop Quiz: What do Oregon and New Mexico have in common? What could possibly link the spectacular vistas of Crater Lake to the glistening White Sands?

Answer: One link is these two states have the highest share of computer and electronic production in the entire United States. Think Intel in the Silicon Forest or Los Alamos. They also rank similarly in information technology usage by their businesses.

For Crater Lake: (photo: Eye Ubiquitous/Newscom)    For White Sands: (photo: Eye Ubiquitous/Newscom)

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The Time is Nigh: How Reforms Can Bring Back Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets


By  Era Dabla-Norris and Kalpana Kochar

(Version in Español)

The era of remarkable growth in many emerging market economies fueled by cheap money and high commodity prices may very well be coming to an end.

The slowdown reflects not just inadequate global demand, but also structural factors that are rendering previous growth engines less effective, and the fact that economic “good times” reduced the incentives to implement further reforms to enhance productivity. With the end of the period of favorable global financing and trade conditions, the time is nigh for governments to make strong efforts to increase productivity—the essential foundation of sustainable growth and rising living standards. Continue reading

A Wish List for China’s Third Plenum


ASinghBy Anoop Singh

(Versions in 中文 and Español)

Hard landing, soft landing, no landing, overheating. Pundits’ views on China’s economy bounce around—often rapidly—between these descriptions.

Just two short months ago, the dominant concern was about a sharp slowdown, below this year’s official growth target of 7½ percent. Now, these fears have retreated, pushed aside by talk of renewed momentum.

Our sense, here at the International Monetary Fund, has always been that economic growth will slightly surpass this year’s official target. But we have also cautioned that China’s economic challenges are growing, and that accelerating reform is critical for containing risks and achieving a smooth transition to sustainable growth.

The upcoming Third Plenum provides an opportunity for the new leadership to provide guidance on how they plan to meet these challenges.

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Achieving China’s Great Promise


Murtaza SyedBy Murtaza Syed

(Version in 中文)

Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing has dominated headlines in recent weeks. Half a world away, less conspicuously, but no less importantly, China, the globe’s second largest economy, is designing its own policy adjustments: firstly, unwinding the fiscal and monetary stimulus that helped shield it from the Great Recession and lifted global growth (but which also created some vulnerabilities), and secondly transitioning out of a growth model that has generated spectacular growth over the last three decades, but which is now running out of fuel.

Managed well, these twin adjustments would allow China to prolong its economic miracle in a sustainable way, with a significant positive impact for the rest of the world.

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On A Roll: Sustaining Strong Growth in Latin America


By Sebastián Sosa, Evridiki Tsounta, and Hye Sun Kim

(Versions in Español and Português)

Latin America has enjoyed strong growth during the last decade, with annual growth averaging 4½ percent compared with 2¾ in the 1980s and 1990s. What is behind this remarkable economic performance and will this growth be sustainable in the years ahead?

Our recent study (see also our working paper) looks at the supply-side drivers of growth for a large group of Latin American countries, to identify what’s behind the recent strong output performance.

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After a Golden Decade, Can Latin America Keep Its Luster?


Alejandro WernerBy Alejandro Werner

(Versions in Español and Português)

Latin America continues to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world, even though growth slowed down a bit in 2012. Many economies in the region are operating at or near potential, inflation remains generally low, and unemployment is at historically low levels.

In the near term, the region will continue to benefit from easy external financing and relatively high commodity prices. In our May 2013 Regional Economic Outlook, we project that the region will expand by about 3½ percent in 2013. In Brazil—the region’s largest economy—economic activity is strengthening, driven by improving external demand, measures to boost investment, and the impact of earlier policy easing. In the rest of Latin America, output growth is expected to remain near potential.

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