Posted on November 1, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
Several years out from the global financial crisis, the world economy is still confronting its painful legacies. Many countries are suffering from lackluster recoveries coupled with high and persistent unemployment. Policymakers are tackling the costs stemming from the crisis, managing the transition from crisis-era policies, and trying to adapt to the associated cross-border spillovers.
Against this background, the IMF’s 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, entitled “Crises: Yesterday and Today,” to take place on November 7-8, will take stock of our understanding of past and present crises.
This year’s conference will be a special one as we shall honor Stanley Fischer’s many contributions to economic research and policy. Stan has extensively studied economic and financial crises, first as a faculty member at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and then as a policymaker with many hats over the years―the Chief Economist of the World Bank, the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, and the Governor of the Bank of Israel.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Global Governance, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: central banks, East Asia, financial stability, fiscal policy, IMF Annual Research Conference, IMF Jacques Polak Research Conference, interest rates, Japan, Latin America, macroeconomics, Olivier Blanchard, Paul Krugman, stanley Fischer, United States | 2 Comments »
Posted on May 29, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Sebastián Sosa, Evridiki Tsounta, and Hye Sun Kim
(Versions in Español and Português)
Latin America has enjoyed strong growth during the last decade, with annual growth averaging 4½ percent compared with 2¾ in the 1980s and 1990s. What is behind this remarkable economic performance and will this growth be sustainable in the years ahead?
Our recent study (see also our working paper) looks at the supply-side drivers of growth for a large group of Latin American countries, to identify what’s behind the recent strong output performance.
Filed under: Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Español, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: capital, employment, GDP, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Labor, Latin America, output, productivity | Leave a Comment »
Posted on May 20, 2013 by iMFdirect
by Gustavo Adler and Nicolás Magud
(Versions in Español and Português)
Commodity exporting countries in Latin America have benefited strongly from the commodity price boom that began around 2002. And the accompanying improvements in public and external balance sheets have fed a sense that this time the macroeconomic response to the terms-of-trade boom has been different (and more prudent) than in past episodes. But, has it?
In our recent work, we analyze the history of Latin America’s terms-of-trade booms during 1970–2012 and quantify the associated income windfall (i.e., the extra income arising from improved terms-of-trade). We also document saving patterns during these episodes and assess the extent of the “effort” to save the income windfall.
Our findings suggest that, although the additional income shock associated to the recent terms-of-trade boom is unprecedented in magnitude, the effort to save it has been lower than in past episodes.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, commodity exporters, commodity exports, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investment, Latin America, Mexico, savings, trade, Venezuela | 1 Comment »
Posted on December 21, 2012 by iMFdirect
The planet’s most successful species are the great cooperators: ants, bees, termites, and humans.
In an article in the new issue of Finance & Development magazine, President Bill Clinton shares his experience working with governments, business, and civil society as part of his Clinton Global Initiative.
He says they are making the most progress in places where people have formed networks of creative cooperation where stakeholders come together to do things better, faster and cheaper than any could alone.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Civil Society, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: Africa, agriculture, Bolsa Familia, Brazil, business, business leaders, Canada, capital markets, Clinton Global Initiative, Coca-Cola, Colombia, cooperation, developing countries, domestic food security, Economics, economy, exports, farmers, Fundacíon Carlos Slim, Fundacíon Pies Descalzos, Gap Inc., governments, growth, Haiti, HIV/AIDS, IMF, iMFdirect, imports, infrastructure, International Monetary Fund, investment, Ira Magaziner, Ireland, Latin America, Malawi, mining industry, networks, NGOs, Norway, philanthropists, poverty, President Bill Clinton, private sector, small and medium-sized enterprises, the United Kingdom, tourism, United Nations General Assembly, vocational training | 4 Comments »
Posted on December 17, 2012 by iMFdirect
by María González-Miranda
(Version in Español)
Four years after the Lehman Brothers crisis, private companies in the largest and most financially integrated Latin American countries are doing relatively well, despite continuous bouts of global uncertainty. Like firms in other high-performing emerging markets in Asia, companies in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru (the “LA5”) have benefited from abundant external financing, strong domestic credit, and generally robust demand growth.
These favorable conditions have resulted in robust corporate profitability and valuation, reasonably contained debt ratios, and lower short-term maturity exposures than those observed in other emerging markets.
But some vulnerabilities are starting to build up.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, corporate sector, currency, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, LA5, Latin America, María González-Miranda, Mexico, Peru, vulnerable | 1 Comment »
Posted on June 17, 2012 by iMFdirect
By Gustavo Adler and Camilo E. Tovar
(Version in Español)
Latin America has a long history of accidents that have occurred while navigating turbulent financial international waters. With risks looming over the world economy, should the region worry about new global financial waves?
Global financial markets have seen frequent bouts of severe stress since 2008, although this isn’t really anything new for the region. Global financial shocks have occurred on average every 2½ years since 1990, with significant effects on Latin America.
But how costly are these shocks in terms of domestic output, and is Latin America better placed to cope with them this time?
In Chapter 3 of the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, we analyze whether changes in underlying fundamentals have made the region more or less vulnerable over time. The analysis, which complements our work on the effects of terms-of-trade shocks, looks at what country features and policies make a difference. We focus here solely on the impact of the financial shocks by isolating the effect from commodity prices and global demand shocks.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Español, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, Investment, Latin America, Politics | Tagged: boom and bust, Brazil, Camilo E. Tovar, exchange rate, financial integration, Gustavo Adler, Latin America, Mexico, regional economic outlook, shock, simulations, terms of trade, Western Hemisphere | 2 Comments »
Posted on June 20, 2011 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский)
It was fitting that I should present our latest assessment of global financial stability in Sao Paulo, the financial center of one of the leading emerging economies. In common with many of its peers in Latin America, Brazil is recovering strongly from the crisis. But new financial stability challenges are emerging in this, and other fast-growing regions.
Let me start with three key messages:
- First, financial risks have increased since April.
- Second, as a result, policymakers in both advanced and emerging economies need to step up their efforts to preserve financial stability and safeguard the recovery.
- And third, we have entered into a new phase of the crisis – a political phase- when tough political decisions will need to be made, because the window for substantial policy action is closing. Time is of the essence. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, IMF | Tagged: Brazil, capital flows, debt, emerging economies, Europe, financial policies, financial risks, Global Financial Stability Report, inflation, intereste rates, Japan, Latin America, macropurdential, policymakers, sovereign risk, stress tests, United States | 5 Comments »
Posted on June 17, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Português, Русский)
Today we’re in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to release our update to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.
Despite a mild slowdown, the global economic recovery continues but the road to health will be a long one. Downside risks, both old and new, are increasing.
Our world forecast is 4.3% growth for 2011, and 4.5% for 2012, so down by 0.1% for 2011, and unchanged for 2012, relative to April. This figure hides very different performances for advanced economies on the one hand, and for emerging and developing economies on the other. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, growth, IMF | Tagged: advanced economies, Asia, assets, banks, Brazil, capital flows, commodities, credit, crisis, debt, economy, emerging economies, Europe, financial system, fiscal, food prices, global recovery, government debt and deficits, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, income, inflation, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Latin America, monetary policy, oil prices, unemployment, United States, World Economic Outlook | 4 Comments »
Posted on October 27, 2009 by iMFdirect
By Nicolás Eyzaguirre
(Version en español)
In this year of global recession, fiscal policy has been able to play a supportive role in some countries of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. Even as the downturn caused fiscal revenues to fall, many governments were able to avoid cutting expenditure, and some were able to provide a sizable positive fiscal impulse, actively raising expenditure to provide a boost to domestic demand and GDP.
This is especially clear among the group we call “commodity exporting, financially integrated countries” (see Figure). Fiscal policy is also playing a countercyclical role in a number of other countries in 2009. In contrast, some of the region’s other commodity exporting countries—which in general had implemented a procyclical fiscal policy during the previous years of expansion—continue to do so in 2009, with negative fiscal impulses.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, Latin America, recession | Tagged: commodities, countercyclical policies, fiscal policy, Latin America | Leave a Comment »