Posted on September 11, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Nigel Chalk
(Version in 中文)
It was pretty clear to me on a recent visit that China has become one of the biggest global markets for Angry Birds. The game was everywhere and around 100 million Chinese downloads are expected this year. It made me wonder if this was somehow linked to rising concerns over inflation and a way of getting back at those (increasingly expensive) mischievous green pigs.
During the past year, views on China’s economy have yo-yoed from concerns about the recovery, to hand-wringing about inflation and overheating, and then back to talk of hard landing.
Certainly inflation has been a key feature of the environment this year in China and one should pay close attention to it. Rising inflation is a crucial social concern and takes a heavy toll on household incomes that are already struggling to keep up with economic growth. (more…)
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, 中文 | Tagged: asset price inflation, bottlenecks, China, excess labor, food inflation, food price shocks, food prices, IMF, iMFdirect, inflation, International Monetary Fund, Macroeconomic policies, overheating, pork prices, property prices, skills gaps, surplus labor | 2 Comments »
Posted on June 3, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Version in Español)
Last week I travelled to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil to participate in a conference on managing capital flows. Organized jointly by the Brazilian authorities and the IMF, the conference brought together experts from both the demand and supply sides of the issue, including many with a wealth of hands-on experience.
The discussion was rich and informative. Clearly we still have a lot to learn about the optimal approach to managing capital flows, about the right policy tools, and the right combination of tools.
To start with two general, but important observations. (more…)
Filed under: Emerging Markets, growth, IMF, Latin America | Tagged: capital account, capital controls, capital flows, Chile, China, emerging markets, foreign exchange, global crisis, Macroeconomic policies, research | 6 Comments »
Posted on June 2, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
Capital flows into emerging Asia should be high on the ‘watch list’ for policymakers in the region. But, perhaps, not in the way we had previously anticipated.
Twelve months ago our policy antennae were keenly attuned to the risks posed by the foreign capital that flooded into Asia from mid-2009 onwards. What was remarkable about this was the speed of the rebound after the massive drop during the global financial crisis. Within just 5 quarters, net inflows rose from their early 2009 trough to their mid-2010 peak—a mere one-fifth of the time that typically elapsed between troughs and peaks in the cycle of capital flows during the pre-Asian crisis period.
Another twelve months on, what we’re seeing is not really all that “exceptional”—a point often overlooked in the current debate on capital inflows to emerging markets. (more…)
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Asian crisis, capital flows, emerging Asia, external buffers, financial risk, financial stability, global financial crisis, Macroeconomic policies, macroprudential policies, monetary policy, monetary transmission, overheating, portfolio flows, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, risky assets | Leave a Comment »
Posted on May 24, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette M. Sayeh
(Version in Français)
Sub-Saharan Africa’s “frontier markets”—the likes of Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, and Zambia—were seemingly the destination of choice for an increasing amount of capital flows before the global financial crisis. Improving economic prospects in these countries was a big factor, but frankly, so too was a global economy awash with liquidity.
Then the crisis hit. And capital—particularly in the form of portfolio flows—was quick to flee these countries as was the case for so many other economies.
Fast forward to 2011. Capital flows are coming back to the frontier, but in dribs and drabs. (more…)
Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital controls, capital flows, capital inflows, equity investments, fixed-income investments, foreign direct investment, frontier markets, global financial crisis, liquidity conditions, Macroeconomic policies, macroprudential policies, net private capital flows, portfolio flows, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, shallow financial markets, Sub-Saharan Africa | 1 Comment »
Posted on May 18, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Antonio Borges
(Versions in Español, Français, Português, Русский)
With all the anxiety generated by the troubles of Portugal, Greece, and Ireland, it is easy to forget that a different part of Europe was in the spotlight two years ago, facing equally dire predictions of bank runs, fiscal ruin, and devaluation.
Today, many economies in emerging Europe are quietly staging a strong comeback. Most impressive is the turnaround in the three Baltic countries, which suffered record deep recessions in the wake of the 2008/09 financial crisis. Take Lithuania, which grew an eye-catching 14.7 percent in the first quarter of 2011. But many other countries in the region are seeing strong growth as well. (more…)
Filed under: Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: asset price bubbles, boom-bust cycle, capital inflows, consumption, credit default swaps, current account deficits, domestic demand, economic growth, economic output, exports, growth potential, investment, Macroeconomic policies, markets, structural policies | 2 Comments »
Posted on April 28, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Anoop Singh
(Version in 中文, 日本語 and 한국어)
As the economic recovery has matured across much of Asia, the region has continued to be a driving force in the strengthening global recovery. Yet, recent tragic events—around the globe, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan—are an all too poignant reminder of the fragility of our economic circumstances and, indeed, life.
Much of this weighs on my mind as I am here in Hong Kong to launch our April 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific. While the outlook is by no means gloomy, it is an opportune time to consider how Asia should manage the next phase of growth. (more…)
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital inflows, commodity prices, domestic demand, economic growth, economic recovery, exports, financial risk, fiscal consolidation, global imbalances, global recovery, Macroeconomic policies, overheating, poverty, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, unemployment | Comments Off
Posted on April 5, 2011 by iMFdirect
Open, wide-ranging, and balanced discussion. For Olivier Blanchard—and co-hosts David Romer, Michael Spence & Joseph Stiglitz—that was the goal of last month’s conference at the IMF on the future of macroeconomic policies after the global financial crisis. And it is exactly what they got.
The crisis was a wakeup call for theorists and policymakers… Economic models, policy tools, and how they are applied need to catch up with changes in the global economic and financial system.
You’ve heard here about views from the conference, but there’s plenty of discussion going on outside the IMF. Here’s a snapshot…. (more…)
Filed under: Economic research, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Anders Aslund, David H. Romer, Financial regulation, financial sector risk, global financial crisis, high-frequent trading, Joseph E. Stiglitz, macroeconomic models, Macroeconomic policies, Mark Thoma, Matthew Yglesias, Michael Spence, Olivier Blanchard, Paul Krugman, Perry Mehrling, policy tools, Robert Solow, unemployment | 2 Comments »