Posted on August 31, 2015 by iMFdirect
For a man who declared on his arrival at the IMF “I do not blog,” Olivier Blanchard, our soon-to-be former Chief Economist, is one hell of a blogger.
Prolific and popular. A demi-god: half economist, half artist. Blanchard writes the way he thinks: sharp, frank, and intellectual, while pushing against the edges of his métier with the creativity and honesty of a singular economist.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: Greece, IMF Annual Research Conference, IMF chief economist, jobs, Latvia, macroeconomic policy, oil prices, Olivier Blanchard | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 10, 2015 by iMFdirect
Ever wonder to what extent Russia depends on oil revenues—and what happens to such an economy when crude prices fall by half? Or what the tangible effects are of sanctions when a country falls out of favor with its trading partners?
Well the IMF’s latest annual assessment of Russia’s economy shows cheap oil and sanctions together have helped drag the country into a recession.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Globalization, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: advanced economies, economic growth, Europe, global economy, oil prices, Russia | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 20, 2015 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
Financial market liquidity can be fleeting. The ability to trade in assets of any size, at any time and to find a ready buyer is not a given. As discussed in some detail last fall in this blog, a number of factors, including the evolving structure of financial markets and some regulations appear to have pushed liquidity into a new realm: markets look susceptible to episodes of high price volatility where liquidity suddenly vanishes.
In our April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report we identify a new aspect to the problem: asset price correlations have risen sharply in the last five years across all major asset classes (see figure). Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bond markets, central banks, euro area, exchange rate, Financial regulation, GFSR, Global Financial Stability Report, Japan, market liquidity, market volatility, monetary policy, oil prices, swap lines, Switzerland, U.S. Fed, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 18, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Sanjeev Gupta and Michael Keen
(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский and Español)
In their blog, Ben Clements and Vitor Gaspar make the points that global energy subsidies are still very substantial, that there is a strong need for reform in many countries, and that now is a great time to do it. This blog sets out what we mean by “energy subsidies,” provides details on their estimation, and explains how they continue to be high despite the recent drop in international energy prices (Chart 1).
Our latest update of global energy subsidies shows that “pre-tax” subsidies—which occur when people and businesses pay less than it costs to supply the energy—are smaller than a few years back. But “post-tax” subsidies—which add to pre-tax subsidies an amount that reflects the environmental, health and other damage that energy use causes and the benefit from favorable VAT or sales tax treatment—remain extremely high, and indeed are now well above our previous estimates.
Filed under: Finance, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: Chile, energy price reform, energy prices, energy subsidies, environmental impact, European Commission, fossil fuels, oil prices, tax cuts, the United Kingdom, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By iMFdirect editors
All happy countries are alike; each unhappy country is unhappy in its own way.
This twist on Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina echoed through the seminars during the IMF’s Spring Meetings as most countries, while recovering, are struggling with the prospect of lower potential growth and the “new mediocre” becoming a “new reality.”
Our editors fanned out to cover what officials and civil society had to say about how to help countries pave their own path to happiness.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Finance, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: Africa, Asia, Climate change, commodiity prices, development financing, fuel price subsidy, global economy, IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, inflation, infrastructure, islamic finance, Middle East and North Africa, Millennium Development Goals, oil prices, public debt, Spring Meetings, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 17, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(Version in Español and Português)
Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean has been cooling down for several years, and the temperature in many places is still falling. Regional growth is now expected to dip below 1 percent in 2015—down from 1.3 percent in 2014. Apart from a short-lived recession during the global financial crisis, this would be the slowest rate of growth since 2002.
However, growth dynamics vary across the region, broadly along North-South lines. While spring may be in the air for Mexico, Central America, and parts of the Caribbean, the economic climate remains decidedly chilly in much of South America. What is behind these divergent prospects, and how can a sunnier outlook be restored to the entire region?
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Bolivia, Brazil, Caribbean, Central America, Chile, Colombia, commodiity prices, Ecuador, exchange rate, Latin America, Mexico, oil prices, Peru, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, South America, spillovers, U.S., Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 15, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Benedict Clements and Marta Ruiz-Arranz
(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, عربي and Español)
Plunging oil prices have taken the public finances on an exciting ride the past six months. Oil prices have fallen about 45 percent since September (see April 2015 World Economic Outlook), putting a big dent in the revenues of oil exporters, while providing oil importers an unexpected windfall. How has the decline in oil prices affected the public finances, and how should oil importers and exporters adjust to this new state of affairs?
In the April 2015 Fiscal Monitor, we argue that the oil price decline provides a golden opportunity to initiate serious energy subsidy and taxation reforms that would lock in savings, improve the public finances and boost long-term economic growth.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Reform | Tagged: Angola, commodiity prices, Egypt, energy prices, energy subsidies, fiscal balances, Fiscal Monitor, Gulf Cooperation Council, India, Indonesia, inflation, Malaysia, Norway, oil exporters, oil importers, oil prices, taxation | Leave a comment »