Asia’s Seismic Shift: How Can the Financial Sector Serve Better?


Min ZhuBy Min Zhu

(Versions in  中文Español)

Asia is set to be the powerhouse for growth in the next decade, just as it was in the last one. The size of its economy is expected to expand more rapidly than the other regions of the world, and its share in the world output is expected to rise from 30 percent to more than 40 percent in the coming decade. The structure of the economy is expected to continue to transform from a narrower manufacturing hub to a group of vibrant, diverse and large markets with a rising middle-class population.

The role of the financial sector is critical in the success of this seismic transformation. Let me explain by focusing on three areas:

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Youth Speaking Out


CliftJBy Jeremy Clift

Young people, hardest hit by the global economic downturn, are speaking out and demanding change. Coming of age in the Great Recession, the world’s youth face an uncertain future, with lengthening job lines, diminished opportunities, and bleaker prospects that are taking a heavy emotional toll.

Some people call them the iPod generation—insecure, pressured, overtaxed, and debt-ridden—but insecure or not, around the world young people are challenging a system that appears to have let many down. “Young people want a world economy that is more just, more equal, and more human,” says Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Differing impact on generations

Youth Demanding Change

The Great Recession has taken its toll on the different generations in different ways. For the post–World War II baby boom generation, it’s essentially a wealth crisis. A generation that had hoped to retire has seen the value of its property and savings dramatically eroded. For the group known as Gen X (born 1965–80), it’s an income crisis. They should be in the period of their life when they are earning the most, but the downturn has depressed their salaries and threatens their pensions. For Gen Y (1981–2000), it’s about their future and the potentially damaging legacy of the boomer generation.

In recent issues of the magazine, we have looked at the impact of aging populations on economies around the world and how inequality affects growth.

In the March 2012 issue of F&D, we look at the need to urgently address the challenges facing youth and create opportunities for them. Watch a video on this.

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Wising Up to the Rising Costs of Aging Populations


Jeremy CliftJeremy Clift

Countries around the world are headed for a dramatic demographic transformation caused by falling fertility and rising life expectancy.  Particularly in advanced economies, but also in other parts of the world, populations are getting older and this will affect every dimension of life—from the shape of the family to the shape of the world order.

Most problematically, perhaps, it could throw into question the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young.

The latest issue of the IMF’s Finance & Development magazine explores the consequences on society of aging populations. The world’s population will reach 7 billion this year and is projected to exceed 9 billion in 2050. But in the lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that hidden behind these headline numbers are important changes in the age distribution of the population. Continue reading

Post-Crisis: What Should Be the Goal of a Fiscal Exit Strategy?


By Carlo Cottarelli

One obvious fallout of the global financial crisis is a huge deterioration in fiscal conditions, particularly in advanced countries. The numbers are nothing short of staggering. Gross general government debt in the G-20 advanced economies is projected to approach 120 percent of GDP by 2014, up from about 80 percent in 2007, and this is even assuming no renewal of fiscal stimulus beyond 2010.

Some might think that this comes from an “exotic” form of fiscal policy whereby governments opened their coffers to prop up financial institutions. But only a small part of this debt spike is matched by a rise in financial assets. It really boils down to “plain vanilla” deficits—revenue losses from the recession, fiscal stimulus, and some underlying spending increases that would have occurred even without a recession.

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