Posted on July 19, 2012 by iMFdirect
By Ajai Chopra
The U.K. economy has been flat for nearly two years. This stagnation has left output per capita a staggering 14 percent below its precrisis trend and 6 percent below its pre-crisis level.
Weak growth has kept unemployment high at 8.1 percent, with youth unemployment an alarming 22 percent.
The effects of a persistently weak economy and high long-term unemployment can reverberate through a country’s economy long into the future—commonly referred to by economists as hysteresis.
Our analysis of such hysteresis effects shows that the large and sustained output gap, the difference between what an economy could produce and what it is producing, raises the danger that a downturn reduces the economy’s productive capacity and permanently depresses potential GDP.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: bank funding, Bank of England, banks, borrowing costs, collateral, credit, crisis, deficits, demand, Economics, financial stability, GDP, government, gross domestic product, haricuts, hysteresis, idle capital, IMF, infrastructure, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, investment, liquidity, monetary policy, new technologies, output, output gap, policymakers, private sector, public debt, public sector, quantitative easing, risks, stagnation, U.K., unemployment, United Kingdom, yield curve | 6 Comments »
Posted on August 1, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Ajai Chopra
The U.K. government should be nimble in its policy response if it looks as though the economy is headed for a prolonged period of weak growth, high unemployment, and subdued inflation. Currently, we don’t expect this scenario to happen. But if such a scenario appears to be in prospect, we recommend responding quickly with some combination of further quantitative easing by the Bank of England and temporary tax cuts.
The most likely scenario for the U.K. economy is that it will gradually recover, although it will face continued headwinds from a soft housing market, household and financial sector deleveraging, and ongoing consolidation of the budget. Against this, the economy should get a push from private investment and an increase in exports driven by the global recovery. Labor productivity may also rebound and improve competitiveness.
Led by these forces, the IMF is expecting a bumpy and uneven recovery in the U.K. and our updated growth forecast for the near term, taking into account the recent GDP release for the second quarter, will be published with the September World Economic Outlook. Over the medium term, we expect growth to accelerate gradually to about 2½ percent. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Europe, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus | Tagged: commodiity prices, competitiveness, exports, fiscal adjustment, housing market, inflation, quantitative easing, tax cuts, unemployment | 8 Comments »
Posted on December 2, 2009 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
Governments and central banks rose to the challenge as the 2008–09 financial crisis unfolded, taking unprecedented steps to avoid the collapse of the global financial system and avert a devastating impact on the global economy. Liquidity support, capital infusions, and public guarantees were provided to banks and other financial institutions; policy interest rates were lowered substantially; and fiscal stimulus packages were introduced.
On top of this, international institutions like the IMF enhanced their lending facilities to help emerging markets and developing economies better cope with the threats posed by the crisis.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Stimulus | Tagged: capital infusions, Liquidity support, monetary accommodation, public deficits, public guarantees, quantitative easing, spillover effects | 1 Comment »