Posted on September 18, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Sweta Saxena
1. Are emerging markets slowing down? Yes. They have been slowing down for some time now. GDP growth has declined from 7 percent during the pre-crisis period (2003-8) to 6 percent over the post-crisis period (2010-13) to 5 percent, in our projections, over the next 5 years (2014-18). This path is illustrated below in Chart 1. This last point stands out. Despite an uneven recovery, growth in advanced economies is projected to eventually recover. Not so for emerging markets.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Brazil, Central America, China, commodiity prices, emerging market economies, global trade, Russia, spillover effects, spillover reports, structural reform, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 1, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alberto Behar
(Version in Русский)
The countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) are closely linked with Russia through trade, financial, and labor market channels. These ties have served the region well in recent years, helping it make significant economic gains when times were good. But how is the region affected when Russia’s economy slows down?
Underlying structural weaknesses have reduced Russia’s growth prospects for this year and over the medium term. Tensions emanating from developments in eastern Ukraine—including an escalation of fighting, the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, and new sanctions—have led to renewed market turbulence in Russian markets.
Experience has shown that lower growth in a large country can inflict significant collateral damage on neighboring countries with strong linkages of the type that the CCA has with Russia. (See also separate blog on Russia-Europe links.) We took a closer look at these connections to see how they transmit shocks, with particular attention to the impact on the region’s two main categories of economies—hydrocarbon importers and hydrocarbon exporters (see map).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Русский, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Armenia, Caucasus and Central Asia, gas, Kyrgyz Republic, oil exporters, oil-importing countries, Russia, spillover, Tajikistan, Ukraine | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 30, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam
(Version in Русский and Español)
Even before geopolitical tensions unleashed currency flight, bank deposit withdrawals and surging risk premiums, Ukraine faced serious challenges. The crisis there has been years in the making, reflecting deep structural problems that left it vulnerable to periodic funding shortfalls and near the bottom of transition country league tables. Thus, any program to tackle the immediate crisis in Ukraine must inevitably come to grips with this legacy.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Politics | Tagged: energy, euro area, exchange rate flexibility, fiscal policy, Russia, transparency, Ukraine | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 29, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam, Aasim M. Husain, and Anna Ilyina
(Version in Türk)
Growth is gathering momentum in most of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) in the wake of the recovery in the euro area. Excluding the largest economies—Russia and Turkey—the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Issues report projects the region to grow 2.3 percent in 2014, almost twice last year’s pace. This is certainly good news.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Central Europe, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, euro area, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, spillovers, Turkey, U.S. Fed, Ukraine | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 11, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Reza Moghadam
Economic growth across Europe is slowly picking up, which is good news. But the recovery is still modest and measures to boost economic growth and create jobs are important.
Western Europe: picking up the pace
The recovery projected last October for the euro area has solidified. This is reflected in our revised forecasts—e.g., the 2014 forecast for the euro area is up from 1 percent last October to 1.2 percent now, with important upgrades in countries like Spain. These revisions reflect the stronger data flow on the back of past policy actions, the revival of investor confidence, and the waning drag from fiscal consolidation. The positive impact on program countries is palpable—improving economies, lower spreads, and evidence of market access. We’ve also seen a welcome pick-up in growth in the UK (almost 3 percent is expected for 2014).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: banking union, ECB, euro area, inflation, loans, lowflation, macroeconomic policy, recovery, Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, Russia, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom | 2 Comments »
Posted on July 9, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
Today we released our update of the World Economic Outlook.
The world economy remains in 3-speed mode. Emerging markets are still growing rapidly. The US recovery is steady. And much of Europe continues to struggle.
There is however a twist to the story. Growth almost everywhere is a bit weaker than we forecast in April, and the downward revision is particularly noticeable in emerging markets. After years of strong growth, the BRICS in particular are beginning to run into speed bumps. This means that the focus of policies will increasingly need to turn to boosting potential output growth or, in the case of China, to achieving more sustainable and balanced growth.
What the Numbers Show
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Politics, recession | Tagged: China, euro zone, forecast, Japan, Olivier Blanchard, Russia, United States, WEO, World Economic Outlook | 3 Comments »