Africa and the Great Recession: Changing Times

Posted on May 14, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Antoinette Sayeh

(Version in Français)

In previous global downturns, sub-Saharan Africa has usually been badly affected—but not this time around.

The world economy has experienced much dislocation since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Output levels in many advanced economies still remain below pre-crisis levels, while unemployment levels have surged; growth in emerging market economies has slowed, but remains quite high.

But in sub-Saharan Africa, growth for the region as a whole has remained reasonably strong (around 5 percent), except for 2009 – where the decline in world output and associated shrinking of world trade pushed Africa’s growth down to below 3 percent.

Some better than others

Of course, sub-Saharan Africa is a diverse region, and not all economies have fared equally well. The more advanced economies in the region (notably South Africa) have close links to export markets in the advanced economies, and have experienced a sharper slowdown, and weaker recovery, than did the bulk of the region’s low-income economies.  Countries affected by civil strife (such as Cote d’Ivoire, and now Mali) and by drought have also fared less well than other economies in the region.

So why has most of sub-Saharan Africa continued to record solid growth against the backdrop of such a weak global economy?  And can we expect this solid growth performance to continue in the next few years?

(more…)

Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, growth, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, LICs, Low-income countries, Politics, Public debt, recession | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Africa: Changing the Narrative

Posted on December 2, 2011 by iMFdirect

Jeremy CliftBy Jeremy Clift

Enduring poverty and conflict are so stark in Africa that it is sometimes difficult to see what else is happening.

In April 2011, a study published by the Columbia Journalism Review titled “Hiding the Real Africa” documented how easily Africa makes news headlines in the West when a major famine, pandemic, or violent crisis breaks. But less attention is given to positive trends and underlying successes.

In many cases, despite accelerated economic growth over the past 10 years, the rise of a middle class of consumers, and a more dynamic private sector attracting indigenous entrepreneurs, the narrative about Africa has remained focused on the bad news.

(more…)

Filed under: Africa, Emerging Markets, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

South Africa’s Unemployment Puzzle

Posted on April 4, 2011 by iMFdirect

By Abebe Aemro Selassie

Among the havoc wrought by the global financial crisis, unemployment ranks at the top. This discussion often focuses on the situation in advanced countries. Unemployment in the United States, for example, continues to hover around 9 percent.

Take that and double it. Then you can begin—yes, just begin—to get a sense of the magnitude of the problem in South Africa. Unemployment in South Africa now stands at some 24 percent. Youth unemployment is phenomenally higher still at some 50 percent. (more…)

Filed under: Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Politics, Public debt | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

This Time It’s Different

Posted on March 12, 2010 by iMFdirect

By Dominique Strauss-Kahn,

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

My final destination in this week’s visit to Africa was Zambia, where I sought the views not just of the government but also of the people—in a town hall with civil society, students, and the media. Zambia has one of the highest economic growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa: 6.3 percent in 2009 and the outlook for 2010 appears positive.
While recognizing that Zambia, just like Kenya and South Africa, has its own unique characteristics, I have pulled together some common threads from what I have been hearing in Africa over the past several days.

Filed under: Africa, concessional lending, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Globalization, growth, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Something New Out of Africa: A Global Player

Posted on March 10, 2010 by iMFdirect

By Dominique Strauss-Kahn,

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

The sense of African energy and dynamism that I described during my visit to Kenya is reinforced strongly here in South Africa. And it’s not just World Cup fever—though there are plenty of signs of that too.

By some estimates, close to 10 million people are expected to visit South Africa this summer for the football (soccer) extravaganza—a further boost to its economy and its image in the world. South Africa is a global player.

This country has long been seen as the growth hub in the south and eastern part of the continent. But this past year, as a member of the G-20 group of nations, South Africa has come to be seen as much more–an emerging market, yes. And now also an influence on how global decisions are shaped. This is a new role for Africa in the world—and a new way for Africa to be seen by the world.

(more…)

Filed under: Africa, G-20, Globalization | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

IMF—Delivering on Promises to Africa

Posted on March 7, 2010 by iMFdirect

By Dominique Strauss-Kahn,

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

This week, I’m on my third visit to sub-Saharan Africa within a year. And what a difference a year has made!

This time last year, Africa was swept up into the vortex of the global financial crisis. The global recession struck Africa through several channels—exports collapsed, banks ran into trouble as non-performing loans grew, and investment diminished. Average growth in sub-Saharan Africa fell to 2 percent in 2009 from 5.6 percent the previous year.

But improved policies in the face of the crisis helped the continent get through the storm better than expected and at the IMF we anticipate that Africa will see a relatively quick recovery, with average growth bouncing back to 4½ percent this year and 5½ percent in 2011. African countries were able to take appropriate measures to mitigate the turbulence because policies before the crisis were good, allowing them to build reserves, cut debt, and open up fiscal space to combat the recession.

(more…)

Filed under: Africa, concessional lending, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, growth, IMF, LICs, Low-income countries, recession | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Africa and the Global Economic Crisis: Weathering the Storm

Posted on September 6, 2009 by iMFdirect

By Antoinette Sayeh

Last week, my colleague Hugh Bredenkamp talked about how the IMF is helping the low-income countries overcome the global  economic crisis. This week, I want to follow this theme, but hone in more on sub-Saharan Africa. I know this region reasonably well, both from current and past vantage points. In my present role, I am the director of the IMF’s African department. Previously, I was minister of finance in Liberia and, before that, I spent a significant part of my long World Bank career working on African countries. Grappling with the kinds of economic challenges that affect the lives of millions of Africans is a passion for me.

In this first post, I want to talk about growth prospects for Africa. Let’s take a step backwards. Before the global recession, sub-Saharan Africa was generally booming. Output grew by about 6½ percent a year between 2002 and 2007—the highest rate in more than 30 years. This acceleration was broader than ever before, going beyond the typical short-lived commodity driven booms and touching many more countries. Hopes were high that the region was slowly but surely turning the corner.

Workers making footwear in Nigeria at a factory funded by Hong Kong investment. (photo: Qiu Jun/Xinhua)

Workers making footwear in Nigeria at a factory funded by Hong Kong investment. (photo: Qiu Jun/Xinhua)

Then, in a great reversal of fortune, the global economy went into a tail-spin. Initially, we hoped that the fallout in Africa would be limited. And, indeed, when the global financial tsunami made landfall, it first hit the relatively small number of countries with well-developed financial linkages to international capital markets. South Africa in particular faced difficult challenges as portfolio outflows spiked. Together with Ghana, Uganda and several other frontier markets, its currency plunged, confidence dipped, and foreign direct investment slowed.

But the impact didn’t stop there.  Falling export demand and commodity prices battered economic activity in many more countries, including oil exporters in western and central Africa, causing fiscal and external balances to deteriorate significantly. Remittances from the diaspora shrank and credit dried up. The result, in many countries, was stalled growth.

 

(more…)

Filed under: Africa, concessional lending, Debt Relief, Economic Crisis, growth, LICs, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

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