Posted on January 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(version in Español and Português)
The turn of the year usually brings a fresh dose of optimism. Yet, worries dominate across much of Latin America and the Caribbean today, as 2015 marks yet another year of reduced growth expectations. Regional growth is projected at just 1¼ percent, about the same low rate as in 2014 and almost 1 percentage point below our previous forecast. Challenging external conditions are an important drag for many countries. Still, it’s not too late for some good New Year’s resolutions to address domestic weaknesses and improve growth prospects.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Caribbean, Central America, Chile, China, Colombia, commodi, Ecuador, energy subsidies, euro area, forecast, Japan, Latin America, Mexico, oil, Peru, poverty reduction, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, South America, U.S., Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 14, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Prakash Loungani
(Version in Français)
Seven years after the onset of the Great Recession, the global unemployment rate has returned to its pre-crisis level: the jobless rate fell to 5.6% in 2014; essentially the same as in 2007, the year before the recession (chart 1, left panel).
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: Australia, China, emerging market, European Union, Great Recession, Greece, infrastructure, investment, Ireland, Israel, jobs, labor market, monetary policy, Singapore, Spain, U.S., unemployment, unemployment rate | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 25, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan
(Versión en español)
Today’s Pop Quiz: What do Oregon and New Mexico have in common? What could possibly link the spectacular vistas of Crater Lake to the glistening White Sands?
Answer: One link is these two states have the highest share of computer and electronic production in the entire United States. Think Intel in the Silicon Forest or Los Alamos. They also rank similarly in information technology usage by their businesses.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: consumption, exports, human capital, investment, Labor, labor force, technology, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 28, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Deniz Igan
(Version in Español)
Something unusual happened this year. For the first time in almost ten years, a book by an economist made it to Amazon’s Top 10 list. Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century captured the attention of people from all walks of life because it echoed what an increasing number of Americans have been feeling: the rich keep getting richer and poverty in America is a mainstream problem.
The numbers illustrate the troubling reality. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 1 in 6 Americans—almost 50 million people—are living in poverty. Recent research documents that nearly 40 percent of American adults will spend at least one year in poverty by the time they reach 60. During 1968–2000, the risk was less than 20 percent. More devastatingly, 1 in 5 children currently live in poverty and, during their childhood, roughly 1 in 3 Americans will spend at least one year living below the poverty line.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, recession, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: economic recovery, education, health care, jobs, labor market, poverty, poverty reduction, recession, rich and poor, tax, U.S., United States, wages | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 3, 2014 by iMFdirect
(Version in 中文)
“Economic Shifts in U.S. and China Batter Markets” continuing “Stocks Slide Globally…Investors Head for Exits” read the front page headline in last week’s New York Times. Not sure about the U.S. part, I’ll leave that to others. But, as for China, this seems quite a stretch. Could be the pundits are erring in blaming the market slide on China, or perhaps the markets are misreading news coming out of China.
The purported China trigger was a survey of manufacturers. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell somewhat, crossing the magic threshold from expansion to contraction. PMIs are useful, but let’s not get carried away. China’s PMI is not the best indicator for growth, the decline was rather small, and January and February data (because of the Lunar “Chinese” New Year) are hard to interpret.
Filed under: Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: China, forecast, investors, U.S. | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 16, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(Version in Español and Português)
Some basic realities seem to be getting lost in the debate over the Fed’s “exit” from unconventional monetary policy and its impact on Latin America.
First, the still-loose stance makes sense. U.S. inflation is too low, the output gap too large, and the labor market too weak. And even during tapering, the Fed’s stance will remain highly loose. The 10-year Treasury rate, adjusted for core inflation, is about 230 basis points below its 30-year average and the inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate is 320 basis points below. These rates are likely to remain below their 30-year average for at least the next two to three years.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Español, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries | Tagged: capital flows, financial stability, inflation, Latin America, monetary policy, U.S., U.S. Fed | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 1, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Jarkko Turunen
(Version in Español)
A year ago, we were very concerned about lingering weakness in the U.S. housing market, which we saw as a major obstacle to the economic recovery.
But what a difference a year makes! As our latest report on the U.S. economy points out, the housing market recovery has been stronger than expected, and is providing a significant boost to private domestic demand and economic growth.
What has changed in the last 12 months? House prices have rebounded sharply and are currently about 7-12 percent above their level a year ago. Home sales increased by more than 15 percent over the same time period. Thanks to higher house prices and the positive effects of government housing finance programs, fewer homeowners are “underwater” (owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth) or are behind on their mortgage payments, and fewer houses are entering foreclosure.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Employment, Finance, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Public debt | Tagged: economic growth, Federal Reserve, house prices, housing, housing indicators, housing market, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, mortgages, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »