Posted on April 28, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Ravi Balakrishnan and Juan Solé
(Version in Español)
Last month’s report on U.S. jobs was disappointing, with far fewer jobs than expected added in March. A longer-term look at trends yields a different picture, however. Over the past year, U.S. job creation has been impressive. Payroll gains have averaged 260,000 per month—well above the 160,000 monthly average seen throughout the 2010–13 recovery.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, unemployment | Tagged: Great Recession, human capital, immigration, job creation, labor force, Macroeconomic policies, reform, U.S., U.S. Fed, unemployment, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 17, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(Version in Español and Português)
Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean has been cooling down for several years, and the temperature in many places is still falling. Regional growth is now expected to dip below 1 percent in 2015—down from 1.3 percent in 2014. Apart from a short-lived recession during the global financial crisis, this would be the slowest rate of growth since 2002.
However, growth dynamics vary across the region, broadly along North-South lines. While spring may be in the air for Mexico, Central America, and parts of the Caribbean, the economic climate remains decidedly chilly in much of South America. What is behind these divergent prospects, and how can a sunnier outlook be restored to the entire region?
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Bolivia, Brazil, Caribbean, Central America, Chile, Colombia, commodiity prices, Ecuador, exchange rate, Latin America, Mexico, oil prices, Peru, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, South America, spillovers, U.S., Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 9, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Hamid Faruqee and Andrea Pescatori
(Version in Français)
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Canada’s financial system held up remarkably well—making it the envy of its Group of Seven peers. This relative resilience was particularly impressive considering its most important trading and financial partner, the United States, was the epicenter of the crisis.
Part of Canada’s success story lies in the fact that its banking system is dominated by a handful of large players who are well capitalized and have safe, conservative, and profitable business models concentrated in mortgage lending—much of it covered by mortgage insurance and backstopped by the federal government. Notwithstanding such an enviable record and sound financial system, we need to keep an eye on certain financial risks.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Finance, Financial Crisis, G-20, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: bank lending, Canada, financial crisis, house prices, housing, housing market, loan-to-value ratio, mortgages, OECD, oil prices, trade, U.S. | 2 Comments »
Posted on February 23, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, عربي and Español)
Leveling the legal playing field for women holds real promise for the world—in both human and economic terms. Unfortunately, that promise remains largely ignored and its potential untapped. In too many countries, too many legal restrictions conspire against women to be economically active—to work.
What can be done to remove these barriers? A new study done by IMF economists seeks to answer that question.
The bottom line? It’s about a fair, level playing field.
Filed under: Africa, Asia, Economic research, Employment, Global Governance, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Middle East, Reform | Tagged: child care, East Asia, education, Egypt, employment, empowering women, female labor participation, gender wage gap, Japan, Kenya, labor force, labor market, labor regulations, Middle East and North Africa, Namibia, Peru, U.A.E, U.S., women | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 12, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Nigel Chalk and Jarkko Turunen
The remarkable collapse in the price of oil—a key global price that has virtually halved in the space of just a few months—has received a lot of attention lately.
Meanwhile, another significant shift has taken place in recent months that is just as surprising and has wide-reaching global implications—the dramatic drop in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields. The last time we saw 10-year Treasury bond yields this low was in early May 2013. As many will remember, this didn’t last long and when it corrected, it set off a burst of volatility across emerging markets.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Finance, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: bond yields, emerging market, inflation, interest rates, market volatility, oil prices, U.S., U.S. Federal Reserve, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 6, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
(Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, Türk, and Español)
Implementation, investment, and inclusiveness: these three policy goals will dominate the G-20 agenda this year, including the first meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Istanbul next week. As Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu recently put it: “Now is the time to act” – şimdi uygulama zamanı.
There is a lot at stake. Without action, we could see the global economic supertanker continuing to be stuck in the shallow waters of sub-par growth and meager job creation. This is why we need to focus on these three “I’s”:
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, G-20, Globalization, Government, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Politics, Reform | Tagged: Cameroon, Chile, Christine Lagarde, Cote d’Ivoire, ebola, Egypt, emerging market, euro area, G-20, Haiti, India, Indonesia, inflation, infrastructure, infrastructure investment, investment, Japan, jobs, Malaysia, monetary policy, Netherlands, oil prices, Turkey, U.S. | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
(version in Español and Português)
The turn of the year usually brings a fresh dose of optimism. Yet, worries dominate across much of Latin America and the Caribbean today, as 2015 marks yet another year of reduced growth expectations. Regional growth is projected at just 1¼ percent, about the same low rate as in 2014 and almost 1 percentage point below our previous forecast. Challenging external conditions are an important drag for many countries. Still, it’s not too late for some good New Year’s resolutions to address domestic weaknesses and improve growth prospects.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Caribbean, Central America, Chile, China, Colombia, commodi, Ecuador, energy subsidies, euro area, forecast, Japan, Latin America, Mexico, oil, Peru, poverty reduction, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, South America, U.S., Venezuela | Leave a comment »