Posted on February 10, 2012 by iMFdirect
By Nicolás Eyzaguirre
(Version in Español)
The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than our September forecasts.
In contrast, our forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Español, Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: bank lending, bond spreads, commodity prices, euro area, exchange rate flexibility, external financing, financial system stress, fiscal credibility, global demand, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, public debt, recession, sovereign spreads, world growth | 2 Comments »
Posted on September 20, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in عربي, Français, Español and Русский)
The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase. The recovery has weakened considerably, and downside risks have increased sharply. Strong policies are urgently needed to improve the outlook and reduce risks.
Growth, which had been strong in 2010, decreased in 2011. We had forecast some slowdown, due mainly to fiscal consolidation. One-time events, such as the tragic earthquake in Japan, offered plausible explanations for a further slowdown. The initial U.S. data also understated the size of the slowdown. Now that the numbers are in, it is clear that more was going on. (more…)
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: bank balance sheets, bank capital, bank lending, current account deficits, current accout surpluses, downside risks, economic forecasts, economic rebalancing, external rebalancing, financial volatility, fiscal consolidation, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, low growth, medium-term fiscal consolidation, Olivier Blanchard, private demand, public debt, public deficits, sovereign bonds, weak balance sheets, World Economic Outlook, world growth | 14 Comments »
Posted on July 8, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Olivier J. Blanchard
The macroeconomic forecasts in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update reflect two opposing forces. Looking back, say over the first half of the year, numbers about economic activity have come in strong, indeed somewhat stronger than we had forecast. These would give reasons to be more optimistic than we were earlier.
Looking forward, however, strong clouds have appeared on the horizon. They present real dangers and serious policy challenges, and give reasons to be less optimistic than we were earlier.
Assessing the balance of these two forces is a difficult exercise. Our forecast for world growth in 2010 is about 4½ %, a bit higher than our April forecast of around 4¼ %. This revision largely reflects the stronger activity during the first half of the year. Our forecast for 2011 is broadly unchanged, at about 4¼ %.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, Low-income countries, recession | Tagged: capital flows, China, euro, Europe, fiscal consolidation, G-20, Greece, IMF World Economic Outlook, Olivier Blanchard, unemployment, world growth, yuan | 4 Comments »