Posted on January 23, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
Versions in Português (Portuguese), and Español (Spanish)
The global landscape has changed since our last update in October 2016. These changes have been mainly shaped by:
- An anticipated shift in the U.S. policy mix, higher growth and inflation, and a stronger dollar. In the United States—while potential policy changes remain uncertain—fiscal policy is likely to become expansionary, while monetary policy is expected to tighten faster than previously expected because of stronger demand and inflation pressures. As a result, growth is projected to rise to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018—a cumulative increase in GDP of ½ percentage point relative to the October forecast. The expected change in the policy mix and growth has led to an increase in global long-term interest rates, a stronger dollar in real effective terms, and a moderation of capital flows to Latin America.
- Improved outlook for other advanced economies and China for 2017–18, reflecting somewhat stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as projected policy stimulus.
- Some recovery in commodity prices, especially metal and oil prices, on the back of strong infrastructure and real estate investment in China, expectations of fiscal easing in the United States, and agreement among major petroleum producers to cut supply.
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, structural reforms | Tagged: Caribbean, Central America, GDP, growth, IMF, iMFdirect blog, infrastructure development, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, regional economic outlook, South America, structural reform | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 16, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.
An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, labor force, U.S. | Tagged: advanced economies, China, economic growth, emerging economies, Europe, financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Maurice Obstfeld, United States, US Federal Reserve, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 4, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
A return to the strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth that Group of Twenty leaders called for at Hangzhou in September still eludes us. Global growth remains weak, even though it shows no noticeable deceleration over the last quarter. The new World Economic Outlook sees a slowdown for the group of advanced economies in 2016 and an offsetting pickup for emerging and developing economies. Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways. Without determined policy action to support economic activity over the short and longer terms, sub-par growth at recent levels risks perpetuating itself—through the negative economic and political forces it is unleashing.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Annual Meetings, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: 2014 Brisbane Action Plan, advanced economies, Brexit, China, developing economies, emerging Asia, emerging markets, G20, GDP, growth, IMF, Maurice Obstfeld, Sub-Saharan Africa, technology, trade, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 8, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語(Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)
A longstanding challenge for the global economy is the possibility that some countries compete for export markets through artificially low prices. Political leaders and pundits sometimes propose import tariffs to offset the supposed price advantages and exert pressure for policy changes abroad. What proponents often fail to realize is that such tariff policies, while certainly hurting their targets, can also be very costly at home. And surprisingly, the self-inflicted harm can be substantial even when trade partners do not retaliate with tariffs of their own. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Employment, IMF, International Monetary Fund, trade, U.S. | Tagged: East Asia, employment, exports, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect, imports, International Monetary Fund, tariffs, trade, United States, World Economic Outlook, World Trade Organization, WTO | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 20, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
Versions in: Português (Portuguese), Español (Spanish)
Following a rough start at the beginning of the year, both external and domestic conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean have improved. But the outlook for the region is still uncertain.
Commodity prices have recovered since their February 2016 trough, but they are still expected to remain low for the foreseeable future. This has been accompanied by a brake—or even a reversal—in the large exchange rate depreciations in some of the largest economies in the region.
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, South America, trade, Transition | Tagged: Argentina, Brazil, Brexit, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, exchange rate depreciation, export revenues, GDP, growth potential, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Mexico, Peru, trade, Uruguay, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 19, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), and Español (Spanish)
The United Kingdom’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union adds downward pressure to the world economy at a time when growth has been slow amid an array of remaining downside risks. The first half of 2016 revealed some promising signs—for example, stronger than expected growth in the euro area and Japan, as well as a partial recovery in commodity prices that helped several emerging and developing economies. As of June 22, we were therefore prepared to upgrade our 2016-17 global growth projections slightly. But Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bank balance sheets, Brexit, China, debt overhang, financial, financial markets, geopolitical risks, growth, IMF, investment, Japan, Nigeria, Policy Action, refugees, South Africa, trade, unemployment, United Kingdom, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 13, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf
Version in Français (French), Português (Portuguese)
There are many reasons why deeper financial development—the increase in deposits and loans but also their accessibility and improved financial sector efficiency—is good for sustainable growth in sub-Saharan Africa. For one, it helps mobilize savings and to direct funds into productive uses, for example by providing the start-up capital for the next innovative enterprise. This in turn facilitates a more efficient allocation of resources and increases overall productivity.
Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: financial inclusion, Financial regulation, financial sector, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investment, Pan-African banks, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, stability, Sub-Saharan Africa | Leave a comment »