Posted on September 8, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語(Japanese), Русский (Russian), Español (Spanish)
A longstanding challenge for the global economy is the possibility that some countries compete for export markets through artificially low prices. Political leaders and pundits sometimes propose import tariffs to offset the supposed price advantages and exert pressure for policy changes abroad. What proponents often fail to realize is that such tariff policies, while certainly hurting their targets, can also be very costly at home. And surprisingly, the self-inflicted harm can be substantial even when trade partners do not retaliate with tariffs of their own. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Employment, IMF, International Monetary Fund, trade, U.S. | Tagged: East Asia, employment, exports, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect, imports, International Monetary Fund, tariffs, trade, United States, World Economic Outlook, World Trade Organization, WTO | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 20, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Alejandro Werner
Versions in: Português (Portuguese), Español (Spanish)
Following a rough start at the beginning of the year, both external and domestic conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean have improved. But the outlook for the region is still uncertain.
Commodity prices have recovered since their February 2016 trough, but they are still expected to remain low for the foreseeable future. This has been accompanied by a brake—or even a reversal—in the large exchange rate depreciations in some of the largest economies in the region.
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, South America, trade, Transition | Tagged: Argentina, Brazil, Brexit, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, exchange rate depreciation, export revenues, GDP, growth potential, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Mexico, Peru, trade, Uruguay, Venezuela | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 19, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), and Español (Spanish)
The United Kingdom’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union adds downward pressure to the world economy at a time when growth has been slow amid an array of remaining downside risks. The first half of 2016 revealed some promising signs—for example, stronger than expected growth in the euro area and Japan, as well as a partial recovery in commodity prices that helped several emerging and developing economies. As of June 22, we were therefore prepared to upgrade our 2016-17 global growth projections slightly. But Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bank balance sheets, Brexit, China, debt overhang, financial, financial markets, geopolitical risks, growth, IMF, investment, Japan, Nigeria, Policy Action, refugees, South Africa, trade, unemployment, United Kingdom, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 13, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf
Version in Français (French), Português (Portuguese)
There are many reasons why deeper financial development—the increase in deposits and loans but also their accessibility and improved financial sector efficiency—is good for sustainable growth in sub-Saharan Africa. For one, it helps mobilize savings and to direct funds into productive uses, for example by providing the start-up capital for the next innovative enterprise. This in turn facilitates a more efficient allocation of resources and increases overall productivity.
Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment | Tagged: financial inclusion, Financial regulation, financial sector, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, investment, Pan-African banks, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, stability, Sub-Saharan Africa | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 29, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Enrica Detragiache, Jean-Marc Natal, and Joana Pereira
Version in Deutsch (German)
Germany, a champion of structural reform prescriptions within the European Union, needs a large dose of the same medicine at home, too. Beyond public investment in transport and telecommunications, and more competition in services, dealing with an aging population needs urgent attention. With the right policies, Germany can bring more people into the workforce—and for longer—to counter the demographic trend, argues a recent study accompanying the regular health check of the German economy by the International Monetary Fund.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, aging, Economic outlook, Employment, Europe, IMF, International Monetary Fund, unemployment | Tagged: advanced economies, aging, child care, employment, Europe, European Union, GDP, German, Germany, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, labor force, retirement, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 13, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Vitor Gaspar and Luc Eyraud
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), Español (Spanish), 日本語 (Japanese), and Русский (Russian)
Public finances have had a rough year. A new reality is emerging. Against this backdrop, countries need to act now to boost growth and build resilience. They must also be prepared to act together to fend off global risks.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial markets, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, inflation, International Monetary Fund, oil | Tagged: advanced economies, emerging markets, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, fiscal space, GDP, growth, IMF, low-income countries, public finances | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 28, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette Sayeh
(Versions in Español, Français, and Português)
The sub-Saharan Africa region is facing severe shocks associated with the steep decline in commodity prices and tightening global financial conditions. Against this background, it’s a good time to look back at the region’s recent growth experience and examine the relationship between growth rates and competitiveness. The extent to which sub-Saharan African companies are able to compete against their foreign competitors (that is, the extent to which they are competitive) could indeed play a role in sustaining growth going ahead.
Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, growth, International Monetary Fund, trade | Tagged: Africa, commodity exports, competitiveness, development, exchange rates, growth, IMF, infrastructure, labor force, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa | Leave a comment »