Posted on January 16, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.
An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, labor force, U.S. | Tagged: advanced economies, China, economic growth, emerging economies, Europe, financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Maurice Obstfeld, United States, US Federal Reserve, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 5, 2017 by iMFdirect
The IMF will assess a range of financial systems in 2017: large ones such as China and Japan, medium-sized ones like Luxembourg, Spain, and Turkey, and small ones such as Guyana and Zambia. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic research, Financial markets, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy | Tagged: Bahrain, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Finland, FSAP, Germany, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Japan, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, Zambia | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 29, 2016 by iMFdirect
What a year it has been. 12 months with big implications for the global economy.
In 2016 our readers’ curiosity focused on a wide range of hot topics in the world of economic and financial policy: the economic impact of migration, China’s economic transition, the prospects for negative interest rates, the way forward for Greece, the future of commodity prices, and the outlook for Latin America, to name a few. We compiled this top ten list for the past year based on readership. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, China, commodities, Economic research, euro zone, Europe, exchange rates, Financial markets, Fiscal policy, G-20, Gender issues, Greece, growth, IMF, interest rates, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, negative interest rates, U.S. | Tagged: Alejandro Werner, Christine Lagarde, José Viñals, Maurice Obstfeld, Poul Thomsen, Vitor Gaspar | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 22, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Tao Zhang
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), and Français (French)
Small states are far more vulnerable than other countries to natural disasters and climate change. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states (economies with a population of less than 1.5 million) is more than four times that for larger countries, in relation to GDP. These countries—whether landlocked nations or small island states—need a range of approaches to deal with catastrophe, including not only better disaster response but also more focus on risk reduction and preparedness. Continue reading
Filed under: climate change, developing countries, Economic research, Financing, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, natural disasters, Public debt | Tagged: Climate change, developing countries, IMF, IMF lending, iMFdirect blog, natural disasters, Paris agreement, public spending, small states, technical assistance | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 21, 2016 by iMFdirect
Terms of trade is the price of a country’s exports relative to its imports. The commodity terms of trade refers to a country’s commodity exports relative to its commodity imports.
When the price of commodities, like oil, plummeted in 2015, economies that rely on exporting commodities had their terms of trade drop by an average of about 10 percent of GDP that year. Economies that rely more on importing commodities saw about a 2 percent of GDP benefit from the 2015 drop in prices. Continue reading
Filed under: commodities, Economic research, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, trade, U.S. | Tagged: commodity exporters, commodity importers, commodity prices, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect blog, oil, trade, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 16, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Joong Shik Kang and Wojciech S. Maliszewski
Version in 中文 (Chinese)
China urgently needs to tackle its corporate-debt problem before it becomes a major drag on growth in the world’s No. 2 economy. Corporate debt has reached very high levels and continues to grow. In our recent paper, we recommend that the government act promptly to adopt a comprehensive program that would sacrifice some economic growth in the short term while rapidly returning the economy to a sustainable growth path.
Filed under: Asia, banking, China, Debt Relief, Economic research, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: Asia, banking, China, corporate debt, credit gap, credit risks, debt relief, deleveraging, Financial regulation, IMF, iMFdirect blog, investment, Japan, Spain | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 6, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Deniz Igan
Michael Mussa, a former Chief Economist of the IMF, famously likened capital account liberalization to fire. In his comments at the IMF Economic Forum on October 2, 1998, he said: “Fire warms our homes, it cooks our food, our internal combustion engines,” and continued: “No doubt, fire is very useful, and we are not going to give up its manifold benefits. On the other hand, fire can also burn you down and do a great deal of damage.”
Filed under: capital markets, developing countries, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital inflows, capital markets, emerging market economies, equity, external financing, external shocks, growth, IMF, iMFdirect blog, output volatility | Leave a comment »