Posted on April 13, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Vitor Gaspar and Luc Eyraud
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), Español (Spanish), 日本語 (Japanese), and Русский (Russian)
Public finances have had a rough year. A new reality is emerging. Against this backdrop, countries need to act now to boost growth and build resilience. They must also be prepared to act together to fend off global risks.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial markets, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, inflation, International Monetary Fund, oil | Tagged: advanced economies, emerging markets, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, fiscal space, GDP, growth, IMF, low-income countries, public finances | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 17, 2016 by iMFdirect
We should have seen a decrease in inequality with globalization, but that’s not what has happened in the last 25 years, according to Nobel Laureate and Harvard Professor Eric Maskin. While there are a number of reasons to care about inequality, he says there is a high correlation between high inequality and social and political unrest, with consequences for a country’s political and economic stability.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: Eric Maskin, Globalization, iMFdirect, inequality, job skills | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 24, 2016 by iMFdirect
(Versions in عربي and Español)
Shanghai will welcome finance ministers and central bank governors for the first ministerial meeting under China’s Group of Twenty presidency this weekend. The meeting comes at a critical time for the global economy. A note by IMF staff prepared as background for the G20 meeting, Global Prospects and Policy Challenges, points to a tepid recovery, and warns that weaker global growth might well be in the cards. This calls for a strong policy response, both national and multilateral, including from the G20.
Filed under: Economic research, G-20, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, refugees | Tagged: China, G20, Globalization, growth, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, recovery, refugees, spillovers, surveillance | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 19, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
(Versions in عربي, , 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)
At the start of 2016, turbulence in financial markets has returned amid renewed concern about risks to global economic growth. The fundamental forces that underlay our October World Economic Outlook projections have not dissipated, and in some respects have intensified, leading us to trim our expectations for future medium-term growth of the world economy.
In the World Economic Outlook Update released today, we still, however, expect growth to pick up this year in most countries.
Despite the modesty of the reduction we see in general growth prospects and the promise of improvement in coming years, downside risks to our central scenario have intensified. In our view, a focus on these risks is the main factor driving recent developments in financial markets.
We may be in for a bumpy ride this year, especially in the emerging and developing world.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, China, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: advanced economies, Asia, China, emerging economies, Europe, global economy, global outlook, growth rates, IMF, labor markets, Latin America, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 17, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Fabio Cortes
Current regulations only require U.S. and European bond mutual funds to disclose a limited amount of information about the risks they have taken using financial instruments called derivatives. This leaves investors and policymakers in the dark on a key issue for financial stability. Our new research in the October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report looks at just how much is at stake. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic research, Europe, Financial markets, International Monetary Fund, U.S. | Tagged: bonds, derivatives, financial markets, financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, IMF, interest rates, leverage, market volatility, mutual funds, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 7, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon
(Version in Español)
With the expected move by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year, many are asking about the effects on emerging market countries. Will outflows increase, and how will this affect economic activity in emerging markets? To answer that, we need to know if capital inflows are in general expansionary or contractionary.
One would think that the question was settled long ago. But, in fact, it is not. It is a case where theory suggests one thing and practice another. The workhorse model of international macro (the Mundell-Fleming model), for example, suggests that, for a given monetary policy rate, inflows lead to an appreciation, and thus to a contraction in net exports—and a decrease in output. Only if the policy rate is decreased sufficiently can capital inflows be expansionary. Symmetrically, using a model along these lines, Paul Krugman argued in his 2013 Mundell-Fleming lecture that capital outflows are expansionary.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bonds, capital flows, emerging markets, foreign exchange, IMF, interest rates, macroeconomic models, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, United States | Leave a comment »