Posted on March 10, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Rahul Anand and Paul Cashin
After being low for decades, inflation in India trended higher from the mid-2000s. It reached 10–11 percent by 2008, and remained elevated at double digits for several years. Even though inflation fell by almost half in 2014, inflation expectations have remained high.
High and persistent inflation in recent years has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. As Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan pointed out at the 8th R.N. Kao Memorial Lecture in 2014, “inflation is a destructive disease … we can’t push inflation under the carpet as a central banker. We have to deal with it.”
Filed under: Asia, Emerging Markets, IMF, Inequality, inflation, International Monetary Fund, LICs | Tagged: demand, food prices, food supply, growth, households, IMF, India, inequality, inflation, International Monetary Fund, Reserve Bank of India | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 17, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Andrea F. Presbitero and Min Zhu
(Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français, and Português)
Many low-income developing countries have joined the group of Eurobond issuers across the globe— in sub-Saharan Africa (for example, Senegal, Zambia, and Ghana), Asia (for example, Mongolia) and elsewhere, raising over US$21 billion cumulatively over the past decade. Tapping these markets provides a new source of funds, but also exposes borrowers to shifts in investor sentiment and rising global interest rates.
Filed under: Africa, Asia, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Public debt | Tagged: Asia, bond spreads, capital inflows, emerging markets, eurobond, exchange rates, financial markets, foreign reserves, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, low-income countries, public debt, public investment, Sub-Saharan Africa | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 19, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
(Versions in عربي, , 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)
At the start of 2016, turbulence in financial markets has returned amid renewed concern about risks to global economic growth. The fundamental forces that underlay our October World Economic Outlook projections have not dissipated, and in some respects have intensified, leading us to trim our expectations for future medium-term growth of the world economy.
In the World Economic Outlook Update released today, we still, however, expect growth to pick up this year in most countries.
Despite the modesty of the reduction we see in general growth prospects and the promise of improvement in coming years, downside risks to our central scenario have intensified. In our view, a focus on these risks is the main factor driving recent developments in financial markets.
We may be in for a bumpy ride this year, especially in the emerging and developing world.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, China, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: advanced economies, Asia, China, emerging economies, Europe, global economy, global outlook, growth rates, IMF, labor markets, Latin America, United States, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 10, 2015 by iMFdirect
World leaders are meeting in Paris to forge a new climate deal. We interviewed two leading thinkers on climate, Nick Stern and Christiana Figueres.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, climate change, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Fiscal policy, Globalization, Government, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries, Reform | Tagged: Christiana Figueres, Nick Stern | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 7, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon
(Version in Español)
With the expected move by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year, many are asking about the effects on emerging market countries. Will outflows increase, and how will this affect economic activity in emerging markets? To answer that, we need to know if capital inflows are in general expansionary or contractionary.
One would think that the question was settled long ago. But, in fact, it is not. It is a case where theory suggests one thing and practice another. The workhorse model of international macro (the Mundell-Fleming model), for example, suggests that, for a given monetary policy rate, inflows lead to an appreciation, and thus to a contraction in net exports—and a decrease in output. Only if the policy rate is decreased sufficiently can capital inflows be expansionary. Symmetrically, using a model along these lines, Paul Krugman argued in his 2013 Mundell-Fleming lecture that capital outflows are expansionary.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, growth, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: bonds, capital flows, emerging markets, foreign exchange, IMF, interest rates, macroeconomic models, monetary policy, Olivier Blanchard, United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 17, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Jorg Decressin and Prakash Loungani
Devaluation is often part of the remedy for a country in financial trouble. Devaluation boosts the competitiveness of a country’s exports and curtails imports by making them more costly. Together, the higher exports and the reduced imports generate some of the financial resources needed to help the country get out of trouble.
For countries that belong to—and want to stay in—a currency union, however, devaluation is not an option. This was the situation facing several euro area economies at the onset of the global financial crisis: capital had been flowing into these countries before the crisis but much of it fled when the crisis hit.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: central bank, euro area, spillover, structural reforms, wage moderation, wages | Leave a comment »