Posted on October 27, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Benedict Clements, Kamil Dybczak, and Mauricio Soto
(Versions in 中文 and 日本語)
Populations are getting older around the world—that’s no surprise in light of declining fertility and improvements in health care. But in many countries, something more dramatic is going on—the population is actually shrinking. These demographic developments portend stark fiscal challenges. What should countries—whatever their degree of economic development—do to respond to these challenges?
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: economic development, health care, life expectancy, public debt, public finances | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 22, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Sonali Jain-Chandra, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)
Despite progress, wide gaps between women and men’s economic empowerment and opportunity remain, which policymakers need to tackle urgently. In most countries, more men than women work, and they get paid more for similar work. Also, there are considerable gender gaps in access to education, health and finance in a number of countries. There is mounting evidence that the lack of gender equity imposes large economic costs as it hampers productivity and weighs on growth.
Our new study analyzes the links between these two phenomena—inequality of income and that of gender. We find that gender inequality is strongly associated with income inequality across time and countries of all income groups.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: developing economies, education, empowering women, gender wage gap, Germany, income inequality, India, inequality, infrastructure, Japan, labor force, tax policy, women labor force participation | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 16, 2015 by iMFdirect
By W. Raphael Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Alfred Schipke
(Version in 中国)
China is moving toward a “new normal” of safer and more sustainable growth. To this end, ensuring its labor market stays resilient will be critical. Reforms to contain vulnerabilities caused by buildup of credits may temporarily slow growth, and raise the unemployment rate, but supported through a strong safety net, these reforms will raise productivity, and facilitate more sustainable growth.
Despite the slowdown of the past few years, however, China’s labor market has remained resilient. Efforts to maintain labor market stability are paying off, helped by an expanding services sector.
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, growth, IMF | Tagged: Asia, China, employment, labor force, labor market | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 8, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Pritha Mitra
(Versions in Français and عربي)
Aspirations for greater fairness were at the core of the protests that triggered the Arab Spring almost five years ago—and remain largely unfulfilled today. In our new paper, we show that tax reform can go a long way towards meeting those aspirations.
Taxation is a critical interface between the state and citizens. How much revenue is raised, how the tax burden is distributed, and how taxation is implemented can all powerfully affect both the reality and the perception of economic opportunities—and the degree of trust in government.
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Reform, عربي | Tagged: Algeria, Arab Spring, income tax, Iran, Middle East and North Africa, oil exporters, oil importers, tax reform, tax system, taxation, taxes, Value-Added Tax, Yemen | 1 Comment »
Posted on August 27, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Jeff Hayden
Between 2004 and 2013, Latin America recorded impressive growth and strong progress on a range of social issues. High commodity prices combined with strengthened economic management and progressive social policies to propel the region forward.
This strength was all the more striking against the backdrop of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, which mired many advanced economies in recession but saw emerging markets, including many in Latin America, power ahead. This led some observers to dub the period the “Latin American decade.”
Now, as the world’s economic leaders prepare to gather in Lima, Peru, in October for the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the picture looks quite different.
Filed under: Annual Meetings, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Español, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Latin America, Reform | Tagged: commodiity prices, corruption, F&D, Finance & Development. F&D, inequality, islamic finance, labor force, Latin America, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 24, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake
(Version in 日本語)
Take a walk in Tokyo, and you will see the sign スタッフ募集中, or “Staff Wanted”, outside many restaurants and convenience stores. These businesses often find it impossible to recruit the workers they need. According to recent statistics, for each job seeker in Japan applying to work as a waiter, there are more than three available positions. Home helpers and long-term caregivers are equally in demand. If you want to work as a security guard, you can choose from around five openings, and for some positions in the construction business the job-to-applicant ratio is over six.
Japan’s labor shortages are the result of both a shrinking population—which limits the overall pool of workers—and skill mismatches. The reduced supply of labor is one of the factors bringing down medium-term potential growth, which the International Monetary Fund estimates at just 0.6 percent. Labor market shortages are also bad for short-term growth, because they reduce the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal stimulus that the authorities are using to try to boost demand.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Reform, unemployment | Tagged: Abenomics, female labor participation, immigration, investment, Japan, jobs, labor market, women | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 3, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette M. Sayeh and Abebe Aemro Selassie
If, as has been observed, demography is destiny, this will be the African century.
Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on the cusp of a demographic transition—the years when the share of young and old in the population declines and those in working age range (15-64 years) increases.
Elsewhere, this transition has generally been accompanied by higher savings, incomes, and economic growth. Our latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at how the transition might play out and the implications for economic policies.
Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, LICs, Low-income countries, Reform | Tagged: Africa, economic growth, emerging market, income, labor force, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa | 1 Comment »