Posted on April 26, 2016 by iMFdirect
By James Daniel, José Garrido, and Marina Moretti
Version in 中文 (Chinese)
China’s high and rising corporate debt problem and how best to address it has received much attention recently. Indeed, corporate debt in China has risen to about 160 percent of GDP, which is very high compared to other, especially developing, countries.
The IMF’s April 2016 Global Financial Stability Report looked at the issue from the viewpoint of commercial banks and resulting vulnerabilities. Its analysis suggests that the share of commercial banks’ loans to corporates that could potentially be at risk has been rising fast and, although currently at a manageable level, needs to be addressed with urgency in order to avoid serious problems down the road. Indeed the success in addressing this issue is important for China’s economic transition and, given its size and growing global integration, the world’s economy at large.
Filed under: China, developing countries, Economic research, Finance, IMF, International Monetary Fund, unemployment | Tagged: bank credit, capital, China, credit, debt restructuring, developing countries, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Labor, nonperforming loans, NPLs, structural reform | Comments Off on Tackling China’s Debt Problem: Can Debt-Equity Conversions Help?
Posted on April 19, 2016 by iMFdirect
Public capital—road, bridges, electricity—can make countries richer by attracting more investment and building economic growth at a time when many are struggling with low growth. Many economists would argue public investment projects in highly efficient countries tend to have a greater impact on growth. New research by IMF economists shows that’s not necessarily the case. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Caribbean, China, Economic research, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, LICs, Low-income countries | Tagged: Andy Berg, infrastructure, public spending | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 13, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Vitor Gaspar and Luc Eyraud
Versions in 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), Español (Spanish), 日本語 (Japanese), and Русский (Russian)
Public finances have had a rough year. A new reality is emerging. Against this backdrop, countries need to act now to boost growth and build resilience. They must also be prepared to act together to fend off global risks.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Financial markets, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, inflation, International Monetary Fund, oil | Tagged: advanced economies, emerging markets, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, fiscal space, GDP, growth, IMF, low-income countries, public finances | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 13, 2016 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
Over the last six months, global financial stability risks increased as a result of the following developments:
- First, macroeconomic risks have risen, reflecting a weaker and more uncertain outlook for growth and inflation, and more subdued sentiment. These risks were highlighted yesterday at the World Economic Outlook press conference.
- Second, falling commodity prices and concerns about China’s economy have put pressure on emerging markets and advanced economy credit markets.
- Finally, confidence in policy traction has slipped, amid concerns about the ability of overburdened monetary policies to offset the impact of higher economic and political risks.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, banking, euro zone, Europe, Finance, Financial markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, U.S. | Tagged: banking, banks, China, corporate sector, debt, emerging market economies, euro area, Europe, Global Financial Stability Report, monetary policy, non-performing loans, NPLs, structural reforms | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 10, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Jose Viñals, Simon Gray, and Kelly Eckhold
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), Deutsch (German), 日本語 (Japanese), and Español (Spanish)
We support the introduction of negative policy rates by some central banks given the significant risks we see to the outlook for growth and inflation. Such bold policy action is unprecedented, and its effects over time will vary among countries. There have been negative real rates in a number of countries over time; it is negative nominal rates that are new. Our analysis takes a broad view of recent events to examine what is new, country experiences so far, the effectiveness of negative nominal rates as well as their limits and their unintended consequences. Although the experience with negative nominal interest rates is limited, we tentatively conclude that overall, they help deliver additional monetary stimulus and easier financial conditions, which support demand and price stability. Still, there are limits on how far and for how long negative policy rates can go. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, banking, euro zone, Europe, Finance, Financial markets, IMF, inflation, International Monetary Fund, Japan | Tagged: bank balance sheets, banks, bonds, corporate bonds, Denmark, equities, European Central Bank, Japan, monetary policy, negative interest rates, nominal interest rates, quantitative easing, real interest rates, Sweden, Switzerland, unconventional monetary policy, zero lower bound | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 7, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Carla Grasso
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Português (Portuguese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
If there’s one thing all economists can agree on, it’s the importance of numbers. Without good data, it is difficult to assess how an economy is performing and formulate smart policies that help improve lives. Continue reading
Filed under: Africa, IMF, International Monetary Fund, technology | Tagged: Africa, capacity building, Cape Verde, East Africa, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Mauritius, Mozambique, senegal, Seychelles, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania, technical assistance | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 4, 2016 by iMFdirect
Today the IMF published some of its new research from the Global Financial Stability Report on two hot topics: emerging economies and the insurance sector in advanced economies. Here’s a quick take on the latest analysis. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, China, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: Brazil, China, Global Financial Stability Report, insurance, interest rates, Mexico, South Africa | Leave a comment »