Posted on December 21, 2016 by iMFdirect
Terms of trade is the price of a country’s exports relative to its imports. The commodity terms of trade refers to a country’s commodity exports relative to its commodity imports.
When the price of commodities, like oil, plummeted in 2015, economies that rely on exporting commodities had their terms of trade drop by an average of about 10 percent of GDP that year. Economies that rely more on importing commodities saw about a 2 percent of GDP benefit from the 2015 drop in prices. Continue reading
Filed under: commodities, Economic research, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil, trade, U.S. | Tagged: commodity exporters, commodity importers, commodity prices, GDP, IMF, iMFdirect blog, oil, trade, World Economic Outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 16, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Joong Shik Kang and Wojciech S. Maliszewski
Version in 中文 (Chinese)
China urgently needs to tackle its corporate-debt problem before it becomes a major drag on growth in the world’s No. 2 economy. Corporate debt has reached very high levels and continues to grow. In our recent paper, we recommend that the government act promptly to adopt a comprehensive program that would sacrifice some economic growth in the short term while rapidly returning the economy to a sustainable growth path.
Filed under: Asia, banking, China, Debt Relief, Economic research, Financial regulation, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Public debt | Tagged: Asia, banking, China, corporate debt, credit gap, credit risks, debt relief, deleveraging, Financial regulation, IMF, iMFdirect blog, investment, Japan, Spain | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 12, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld and Poul M. Thomsen
Versions in عربي (Arabic); Français (French); Deutsch (German); ελληνικά (Greek); and Español (Spanish)
Greece is once again in the headlines as discussions for the second review of its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) program are gaining pace. Unfortunately, the discussions have also spurred some misinformation about the role and the views of the IMF. Above all, the IMF is being criticized for demanding more fiscal austerity, in particular for making this a condition for urgently needed debt relief. This is not true, and clarifications are in order. Continue reading
Filed under: Debt Relief, Europe, Fiscal policy, Greece, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: austerity, debt, debt relief, debt sustainability, ESM, euro zone, Europe, European Stability Mechanism, financial stability, fiscal policy, GDP, Greece, IMF, iMFdirect blog, International Monetary Fund | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 6, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Deniz Igan
Michael Mussa, a former Chief Economist of the IMF, famously likened capital account liberalization to fire. In his comments at the IMF Economic Forum on October 2, 1998, he said: “Fire warms our homes, it cooks our food, our internal combustion engines,” and continued: “No doubt, fire is very useful, and we are not going to give up its manifold benefits. On the other hand, fire can also burn you down and do a great deal of damage.”
Filed under: capital markets, developing countries, Economic research, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: capital inflows, capital markets, emerging market economies, equity, external financing, external shocks, growth, IMF, iMFdirect blog, output volatility | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 30, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Camilla Lund Andersen
2016 has been a year of political upheaval, as accepted truths about the power of globalization to transform lives and lift millions out of poverty are being questioned by electorates in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere. No longer prepared to take experts and elites at their word, many voters appear to be rejecting the adverse consequences of globalization by casting their ballot for antiestablishment messages and candidates.
Filed under: Employment, Globalization, growth, IMF, income, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Investment, jobs, trade, unemployment | Tagged: employment, F&D, Finance & Development magazine, Globalization, growth, IMF, iMFdirect blog, inequality, International Monetary Fund, investment, jobs, trade, trade unions, unemployment | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 29, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Philip Gerson and Johannes Wiegand
For an economist interested in examining the evolution of monetary and exchange rate regimes, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) provides a habitat of unparalleled diversity. Almost every type of regime can be found in the region: from floating and inflation targeting over various pegs to the unilateral use of the euro and full euro area membership.
Filed under: deflation, Economic research, euro zone, Europe, exchange rates, Fiscal policy, IMF, inflation, International Monetary Fund, structural reforms | Tagged: Central Europe, CESEE, deflation, Europe, eurozone, exchange rate flexibility, exchange rate regimes, exchange rates, fiscal policy, inflation, monetary policy, Southeastern Europe, structural policy | Leave a comment »