Posted on September 11, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Nigel Chalk
(Version in 中文)
It was pretty clear to me on a recent visit that China has become one of the biggest global markets for Angry Birds. The game was everywhere and around 100 million Chinese downloads are expected this year. It made me wonder if this was somehow linked to rising concerns over inflation and a way of getting back at those (increasingly expensive) mischievous green pigs.
During the past year, views on China’s economy have yo-yoed from concerns about the recovery, to hand-wringing about inflation and overheating, and then back to talk of hard landing.
Certainly inflation has been a key feature of the environment this year in China and one should pay close attention to it. Rising inflation is a crucial social concern and takes a heavy toll on household incomes that are already struggling to keep up with economic growth. Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, 中文 | Tagged: asset price inflation, bottlenecks, China, excess labor, food inflation, food price shocks, food prices, IMF, iMFdirect, inflation, International Monetary Fund, Macroeconomic policies, overheating, pork prices, property prices, skills gaps, surplus labor | 2 Comments »
Posted on March 31, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Dominique Strauss-Kahn
(Version in 中文)
I am delighted to be back in China this week for a high-level seminar in Nanjing on the international monetary system. Every time I come to this part of the world, I am impressed by the dynamism of the economies and the optimism of the people. The future is here.
The region’s economic performance over the past few decades has been nothing short of remarkable. Asia now accounts for about a third of the global economy, up from under just a fifth in 1980. This trend has been reinforced by the crisis, with the emerging market powerhouses leading the global recovery.
Asia has also made tremendous progress with poverty reduction. China alone has pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past few decades. Such a feat has never before been accomplished in the history of human civilization.
But to sustain this progress, Asia needs to grapple with numerous challenges today, among them the need to deal with overheating pressures and volatile capital inflows. And this relates directly to our discussion at Nanjing. Continue reading
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Global Governance, Globalization, International Monetary Fund, 中文 | Tagged: Asia, capital controls, capital flows, G-20 mutual assessment process, global imbalances, international monetary system, liquidity, poverty reduction, Special Drawing Rights, spillover reports | 6 Comments »
Posted on January 25, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Version in Español | Français | Русский | عربي| 中文 | 日本語 )
The world economic recovery continues. But it remains a two-speed recovery: slow in advanced countries, and much faster in emerging and developing economies. As a result, tensions and risks are emerging, which require strong policy responses.
For some time, global activity was led by fiscal stimulus and the restocking of inventories. This process is now essentially over, which means that global growth is set to slow over the coming year. Fortunately, underlying private demand is improving, so we expect the slowdown to be modest, with global growth remaining at 4.4 percent in 2011, down from 5 percent in 2010. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, 中文 | Tagged: bank recapitalization, capital flows, commodity prices, currency appreciation, economic recovery, financial markets, fiscal consolidation, Fiscal Stimulus, global imbalances, private demand, structural reform, unemployment | 7 Comments »
Posted on January 4, 2011 by iMFdirect
By John Lipsky
(Version in Español | 中文 | Français | 日本語 | Русский | عربي )
2011 represents a pivotal year for the global economic recovery and for international policy cooperation—as well as for the role of the Fund in addressing these two principal challenges.
With the crisis of 2008-09 receding, and following the unprecedented efforts expended in 2010 developing the outlines of a new, post-crisis world, 2011 will be the year in which post-crisis plans will be implemented, tested, and assessed. If they are deemed to be successful, it will not be an exaggeration to claim that a new model for global economic and financial governance will be under way. If unsuccessful, however, the sense of failure likely would undermine confidence while adding to the formidable list of challenges to be overcome. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Employment, Europe, Financial Crisis, Financial regulation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Stimulus, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America, Low-income countries, Middle East, Public debt, recession, 中文, عربي | Tagged: 2011, capital flows, forecast, FSAP, G-20, John Lipsky, look ahead, Seoul | 3 Comments »
Posted on December 21, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Nigel Chalk
(Version in 中文)
In the past couple of years, Hong Kong has witnessed a sharp increase in property prices. This has led some to claim that the time has come to change Hong Kong’s “Linked Exchange Rate System”.
This represents a misdiagnosis of the current situation and the wrong prescription for Hong Kong.
It is true that the average cost of an apartment in Hong Kong has risen by almost 20 percent in the past year alone. This stands in stark contrast to what our latest World Economic Outlook described as the dismal outlook for real estate markets in the industrial countries.
And, like many countries in the region, Hong Kong has been the destination for an extraordinary amount of global capital over the past two years.
But how much of these trends have been a product of the exchange rate regime? Continue reading
Filed under: Asia, Economic outlook, 中文 | Tagged: capital inflows, credit risks, exchange rate regime, fixed exchange, Hong Kong, inflation, lending standards, property price bubble, property taxes, safe haven, speculation, transactions costs | 1 Comment »
Posted on July 15, 2010 by iMFdirect
By Dominique Strauss-Kahn
(Version in 中文, 日本語 and 한국어)
In Daejeon, Korea earlier this week, a remarkable event took place that enabled the world to hear the voice of Asia and to learn how the region has been able to show such great resilience in the face of the worst global financial crisis since the 1930s. On July 12 and 13, more than 1,000 officials, economists, bankers, analysts, and media assembled for a conference titled Asia 21: Leading the Way Forward, hosted by the Korean government and the IMF. I personally learned a great deal about Asia’s growing stake in the global economy—and the global economy’s growing stake in Asia. As the world strives to leave the crisis behind, the economic center of gravity is shifting increasingly eastwards, and Asia’s role is more vital than ever before.
Our objectives with this conference, jointly organized with the superb help of our Korean partners, were three-fold: Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Asia, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Multilateral Cooperation, 中文 | Tagged: Asia and the IMF, Asia21, Asian crisis, capital flows, domestic investment, early warning exercise, economic cooperation, economic powerhouse, G-20, G-20 mutual assessment process, global financial safety net, governance reform, IMF quotas, multilateral surveillance, regional financial safety nets, regional financing mechanisms, spillovers, surveillance | 6 Comments »