What the Fed Rate Rise Means for Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets


By Adrian Alter and Selim Elekdag

Versions in عربي (Arabic), and Español (Spanish)

In December 2016, the U.S. Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year, and said they planned more increases in 2017.  Emerging market currencies took a bit of a dive, but overall investors didn’t overreact and run for the doors with their money.  For the bigger picture, you can read IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld’s blog that outlines how the U.S. election and Fed decision will impact the global economy.  Continue reading

Countries in the IMF Financial Spotlight in 2017


By iMFdirect

The IMF will assess a range of financial systems in 2017: large ones such as China and Japan, medium-sized ones like Luxembourg, Spain, and Turkey, and small ones such as Guyana and Zambia.  Continue reading

China Must Quickly Tackle its Corporate Debt Problems


By Joong Shik Kang and Wojciech S. Maliszewski

Version in 中文 (Chinese)

China urgently needs to tackle its corporate-debt problem before it becomes a major drag on growth in the world’s No. 2 economy. Corporate debt has reached very high levels and continues to grow. In our recent paper, we recommend that the government act promptly to adopt a comprehensive program that would sacrifice some economic growth in the short term while rapidly returning the economy to a sustainable growth path.

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Global House Prices: Time to Worry Again?


By Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

During 2007-08, house prices in several countries collapsed, marking the onset of a global financial crisis. The IMF’s Global House Price Index, a simple average of real house prices for 57 countries, is now almost back to its level before the crisis (Chart 1). Is it time to worry again about a global fall in house prices?  Continue reading

A “New Normal” for the Oil Market


By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto

Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

While oil prices have stabilized somewhat in recent months, there are good reasons to believe they won’t return to the high levels that preceded their historic collapse two years ago. For one thing, shale oil production has permanently added to supply at lower prices. For another, demand will be curtailed by slower growth in emerging markets and global efforts to cut down on carbon emissions. It all adds up to a “new normal” for oil.

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Big Bad Actors: A Global View of Debt


By Vitor Gaspar and Marialuz Moreno Badia

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

In the midst of the Great Depression, the American economist Irving Fisher warned of the dangers of excessive debt and the deflationary pressures that follow on its tail. He saw debt and deflation as the big, bad actors. Now, their close relatives—too high debt and too low inflation—are still in play, at least for advanced economies.

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The World Economy: Moving Sideways


maury-obstfeld-weo_220x150By Maurice Obstfeld

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), 日本語 (Japanese), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

A return to the strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth that Group of Twenty leaders called for at Hangzhou in September still eludes us. Global growth remains weak, even though it shows no noticeable deceleration over the last quarter. The new World Economic Outlook sees a slowdown for the group of advanced economies in 2016 and an offsetting pickup for emerging and developing economies. Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways. Without determined policy action to support economic activity over the short and longer terms, sub-par growth at recent levels risks perpetuating itself—through the negative economic and political forces it is unleashing.

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