Posted on January 22, 2016 by iMFdirect
- Alejandro Werner
By Alejandro Werner
(Versions in Español and Português)
It’s been a rough start to 2016, as seen by the recent bouts of financial volatility, stemming from uncertainties related to the slowdown in China, lower commodity prices, and divergent monetary policy in advanced economies.
The global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, with strains in some large emerging market economies weighing on growth prospects. For Latin America and the Caribbean, growth in 2016 is now expected to be negative for the second consecutive year—the first time since the debt crisis of 1982–83, which triggered the “lost decade” for the region (see table). Continue reading
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, growth, IMF, Latin America | Tagged: Caribbean, Central Am, commodity prices, financial volatility, growth, IMF, Latin America, macroeconomic imbalances, Mercosur, oil prices, South America | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 15, 2015 by iMFdirect
According to Plato, you do not really know something unless you can give an account of it. Otherwise, you have just an opinion and not real knowledge. The seminars that took place during the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru would have made Plato proud.
Our editors deployed their pens and notepads and brought back these themes and highlights.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Climate change, commodity prices, economic growth, emerging markets, energy subsidies, financial inclusion, fiscal policy, IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, oil prices, Peru, structural reforms | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 20, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Paulo Drummond and Estelle Xue Liu
(Version in 中文)
Growing links with China have supported economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. But the burgeoning commercial and financial ties between the developing subcontinent and the world’s second-biggest economy carry risks as well. These links also expose sub-Saharan African countries to potentially negative spillovers from China if the Asian giant’s growth slows or the composition of its demand changes.
The old aphorism “If America sneezes, the world catches a cold” referred to the U.S. economy’s role as a locomotive for the global economy, but it can now apply to any symbiotic relationship between a dominant economy and its clients. China has become a major development partner of sub-Saharan Africa. It is now the subcontinent’s largest single trading partner and a key investor and provider of aid.
Filed under: Africa, Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: Angola, China, commodity prices, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, exports, investment, oil exporters, South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa | Leave a comment »
Posted on October 31, 2013 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette M. Sayeh
When meeting with people outside Africa, I’m often asked whether Africa’s growth takeoff since the mid-1990s has been simply a “commodity story”—a ride fueled by windfall gains from high commodity prices. But finance ministers and other policymakers in the region, and I was one of them, know that the story is richer than that.
In this spirit, in our latest Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa a team of economists from the IMF’s African Department show that Africa’s continued success is more than a commodity story. In fact, quite a few economies in the region have become high performers without basing their success on natural resources—thanks in no small part to sound policymaking.
Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: agriculture, commodity prices, emerging market, Ethiopia, fiscal space, Mozambique, natural resources, regional economic outlook, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, Rwanda, Tanzania, ugan, Uganda | 1 Comment »
Posted on February 10, 2012 by iMFdirect
By Nicolás Eyzaguirre
(Version in Español)
The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than our September forecasts.
In contrast, our forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.
Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Español, Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: bank lending, bond spreads, commodity prices, euro area, exchange rate flexibility, external financing, financial system stress, fiscal credibility, global demand, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, public debt, recession, sovereign spreads, world growth | 2 Comments »
Posted on January 4, 2012 by iMFdirect
By Nicolás Eyzaguirre
(Version in Español, Português)
A few days after the first sunrise of 2012 kissed the shores of Latin America, it is natural to ask: What does the New Year hold for the region’s economies, especially with Europe still under stress?
For sure, a dimmer economic environment, here and abroad. Growth has softened in the larger countries of the region. Looking North, the United States is growing a bit more, but elsewhere activity is softening, including in China—an increasingly important customer for the region’s commodities.
Perhaps more importantly, global financial markets are still strained, because many questions about advanced economies remain unanswered: Continue reading
Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: balance sheets, banking assets, commodity prices, confidence, dollarization, fiscal policy, global financial crisis, global financial markets, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, liquidity conditions, monetary policy, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, weak growth, year ahead | 5 Comments »
Posted on November 1, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Gustavo Adler and Sebastián Sosa
(Version in Español)
As a commodity exporting region, Latin America has greatly benefited from the commodity price boom of the past decade. But with talk of a new global recession, what will happen to the region if the boom turns to bust?
The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere sheds light on Latin America’s reliance on commodities from a historical perspective. Our study also looks at the effect of a sharp decline in commodity prices on emerging market economies and on the policies that could shield countries from that shock.
More dependent but also more diversified
The reliance on commodity exports can be looked at as a share of GDP (commodity dependence) as well as relative to total exports of goods and services (export diversification). Continue reading
Filed under: Economic outlook, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: commodity prices, export diversification, exports, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere | 4 Comments »