Who Wins and Who Loses As China Rebalances

Posted on May 12, 2016 by iMFdirect

By Serkan Arslanalp, Thomas Helbling, Jaewoo Lee, and Koshy Mathai

Version in 中文  (Chinese)

China’s economy leaves nobody indifferent. The world is watching closely as the second largest economy in the world is shifting its growth model from an export-driven one to one centered on household consumption. As China’s economy slows and rebalances, its impact is being felt on an already fragile global economy, and particularly in the rest of the Asia region. Our recent studies show that while China’s rebalancing will adversely affect some Asian economies, it will also open opportunities for several others.

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Filed under: Asia, China, Financial markets, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Investment, technology, trade | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016: Adjusting to a Harsher Reality

Posted on January 22, 2016 by iMFdirect

Event only
Alejandro Werner

By Alejandro Werner

(Versions in Español and Português)

It’s been a rough start to 2016, as seen by the recent bouts of financial volatility, stemming from uncertainties related to the slowdown in China, lower commodity prices, and divergent monetary policy in advanced economies.

The global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, with strains in some large emerging market economies weighing on growth prospects. For Latin America and the Caribbean, growth in 2016 is now expected to be negative for the second consecutive year—the first time since the debt crisis of 1982–83, which triggered the “lost decade” for the region (see table). Continue reading →

Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, growth, IMF, Latin America | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Plato & the Incas: Overheard at the IMF’s Annual Meetings

Posted on October 15, 2015 by iMFdirect

By iMFdirect

According to Plato, you do not really know something unless you can give an account of it.  Otherwise, you have just an opinion and not real knowledge.  The seminars that took place during the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru would have made Plato proud.

Our editors deployed their pens and notepads and brought back these themes and highlights.

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Filed under: Advanced Economies, Annual Meetings, Asia, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

If China Sneezes, Africa Can Now Catch a Cold

Posted on March 20, 2014 by iMFdirect

By Paulo Drummond and Estelle Xue Liu

(Version in  中文)

Growing links with China have supported economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. But the burgeoning commercial and financial ties between the developing subcontinent and the world’s second-biggest economy carry risks as well. These links also expose sub-Saharan African countries to potentially negative spillovers from China if the Asian giant’s growth slows or the composition of its demand changes.

The old aphorism “If America sneezes, the world catches a cold” referred to the U.S. economy’s role as a locomotive for the global economy, but it can now apply to any symbiotic relationship between a dominant economy and its clients. China has become a major development partner of sub-Saharan Africa. It is now the subcontinent’s largest single trading partner and a key investor and provider of aid.

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Filed under: Africa, Asia, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Africa’s Success: More Than A Resource Story

Posted on October 31, 2013 by iMFdirect

Antoinette SayehBy Antoinette M. Sayeh

When meeting with people outside Africa, I’m often asked whether Africa’s growth takeoff since the mid-1990s has been simply a “commodity story”—a ride fueled by windfall gains from high commodity prices. But finance ministers and other policymakers in the region, and I was one of them, know that the story is richer than that.

In this spirit, in our latest Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa a team of economists from the IMF’s African Department show that Africa’s continued success is more than a commodity story.  In fact, quite a few economies in the region have become high performers without basing their success on natural resources—thanks in no small part to sound policymaking.

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Filed under: Africa, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

The Impact of the Gloomier Global Outlook on Latin America

Posted on February 10, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Nicolás Eyzaguirre

(Version in Español)

The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than our September forecasts.

In contrast, our forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.

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Filed under: Economic outlook, Economic research, Español, Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Latin America: What’s Ahead in 2012?

Posted on January 4, 2012 by iMFdirect

By Nicolás Eyzaguirre

(Version in Español, Português)

A few days after the first sunrise of 2012 kissed the shores of Latin America, it is natural to ask: What does the New Year hold for the region’s economies, especially with Europe still under stress?

For sure, a dimmer economic environment, here and abroad. Growth has softened in the larger countries of the region. Looking North, the United States is growing a bit more, but elsewhere activity is softening, including in China—an increasingly important customer for the region’s commodities.

Perhaps more importantly, global financial markets are still strained, because many questions about advanced economies remain unanswered:    Continue reading →

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, growth, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

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