Posted on November 11, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, Türk, and Español)
As the Group of Twenty leaders gather in Turkey this weekend, they will have on their minds heartbreaking images of displaced people fleeing countries gripped by armed conflict and economic distress. The surge of refugees in the last few years has reached levels not seen in decades. And these numbers could increase further in the near future.
The immediate priority must be to help the refugees—who bear the heaviest burden, and too often tragically—with better access to shelter, health care and quality education.
Many of the countries neighboring conflict zones—which have welcomed most of the refugees—have stretched their capacity to absorb people to the limit. To support additional public services for refugees, they will require more financial resources. The international community must play its part. With the IMF’s support, for example, Jordan has been able to adjust its fiscal targets to help meet this need.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Africa, Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Emerging Markets, Europe, Fiscal policy, G-20, Global Governance, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, Politics | Tagged: Christine Lagarde, conflict, conflict-affected states, education, G20, health care, immigration, Jordan, labor force, refugees, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sweden, Turkey | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 8, 2009 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette Sayeh
The shape of the global recovery is on everybody’s mind. But how will it affect sub-Saharan Africa? A key lesson from the past is that global cycles matter for Africa.
For sure, there have been definite idiosyncrasies in sub-Saharan African cycles–as will be discussed more fully in the forthcoming October issue of our Regional Economic Outlook—but the global dimension remains paramount.
Previous global cycles—and I’m talking here about the regular fluctuations in global economic growth that bottomed out in 1975, 1982, and 1991—followed some clear patterns. Typically, the end of an unsustainably high period of global growth coincided with the emergence of production bottlenecks and a burst of inflation triggered by accelerating commodity prices (particularly oil), prompting a tightening of monetary policy. The subsequent downturns were relatively short and growth rates typically bounced back fairly
quickly to previous levels.
By and large, Africa followed this pattern too. But the timing and the strength of the recovery were a bit different. Growth rates stayed high during the first year of the global slowdown, and they tended to bottom out later. The rebound was slower, lagging global growth by a year or two. Critically, when growth did recover, it was generally hesitant and low.
What can the past tell us about the present? It is clear that the initial shock to sub-Saharan Africa has been greater than in the past. This reflects both the magnitude of the global crisis and the deeper integration between the region and the world, both in trade and in financial markets.
Filed under: Africa, concessional lending, Economic Crisis, growth, IMF, LICs, Low-income countries, Multilateral Cooperation, recession | Tagged: concessional lending, conflict, food and fuel crisis, political freedom, public debt, recovery | Leave a comment »