Addition by Subtraction: How Diasporas Can Boost Home-Country Growth


Pritha Mitra-blogpicBy Pritha Mitra

Version in عربي (Arabic)

Every year, millions of people leave their countries of birth in search of better opportunities abroad. Often, these migrants are among the most talented workers in their home countries. At first glance, this is a loss for the home countries, which invested considerable time and money in educating and developing these people, only to watch them leave. But look again.

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Subdued Growth, Diminished Prospects, Action Needed


By Maurice Obstfeld

(Versions in عربي, , 中文Français, 日本語, Русский, and Español)

At the start of 2016, turbulence in financial markets has returned amid renewed concern about risks to global economic growth. The fundamental forces that underlay our October World Economic Outlook projections have not dissipated, and in some respects have intensified, leading us to trim our expectations for future medium-term growth of the world economy.

In the World Economic Outlook Update released today, we still, however, expect growth to pick up this year in most countries.

Despite the modesty of the reduction we see in general growth prospects and the promise of improvement in coming years, downside risks to our central scenario have intensified. In our view, a focus on these risks is the main factor driving recent developments in financial markets.

We may be in for a bumpy ride this year, especially in the emerging and developing world.

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Global Financial Stability: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges


GFSRBy José Viñals

(Versions in 中文FrançaisРусский, and Español)

Today global financial stability is not yet assured and downside risks prevail. Our recommendation is for an urgent upgrade in policies, to avoid downside risks and to achieve our upside scenario of “successful normalization” of monetary and financial conditions. This will secure financial stability and strengthen the economic recovery.

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Behind the News in Greece and China, Moderate Growth Continues


 By Olivier Blanchard

(Versions in Español and عربي)

Today we published the World Economic Outlook Update.

But first, let me talk about the elephant in the room, namely Greece.

The word elephant may not be right: As dramatic as the events in Greece are, Greece accounts for less than two percent of the Eurozone GDP, and less than one half of one percent of world GDP.
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Growth: An Essential Part of a Cure for Unemployment


By Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani

(Versions in عربي, 中文Français, 日本語Русский, and Español)

Unemployment is a global problem. If the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. Of the nearly 200 million people around the world looking for work, half are in emerging markets and about a quarter in advanced economies, reflecting the growing weight of emerging markets in the global labor force (Figure 1).

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What’s Lurking in the Shadows of China’s Banks


By Steven Barnett and Shaun Roache

(Versions in 中文)

“Shadow” banking: a surprisingly colorful term for our staid economics profession. Intended or not, it conjures images of dark, sinister, and even shady transactions. With a name like “shadow banking” it must be bad. This is unfair. While the profession lacks a uniform definition, the idea is financial intermediation that takes place outside of banks—and this can be good, bad, or otherwise.

Our goal here is to shine a light on shadow banking in China. We at the IMF have used many terms. Last year, we had a descriptive one, albeit a mouthful—off-balance sheet and nonbank financial intermediation. The April 2014 Global Financial Sector Report (GFSR) called it nonbank intermediation. This year our China Article IV report used the term shadow banking.

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Taper Tantrum or Tedium: How U.S. Interest Rates Affect Financial Markets in Emerging Economies


By Alexander Klemm, Andre Meier, and Sebastián Sosa

(Version in Español)

Governments in most emerging economies, including in Latin America, have reduced their exposure to U.S. interest rates over the past decade, by issuing a greater share of public debt in domestic currencies.

Even so, sudden changes in U.S. interest rates still have the power to roil financial markets in emerging economies. Witness last year’s “taper tantrum”—when the Fed hinted at the possibility of tapering its bond purchases sooner than previously expected, causing bond yields to rise sharply. Continue reading

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