Posted on July 26, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Yasser Abdih
There was a time when U.S. central bankers worried that inflation was too high, and they tried to bring it down. Now the opposite is true: the Federal Reserve is concerned that inflation has remained stubbornly low, and it’s trying to boost prices. The reason: persistently low inflation raises the risk that prices will actually start to decline, a dangerous condition known as deflation. That’s bad news because it makes people less willing to borrow and spend—anticipating lower prices, consumers will put off spending—and could also lead to a fall in wages. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, inflation, International Monetary Fund, U.S. | Tagged: borrowing, Canada, China, core inflation, deflation, exports, Federal Reserve, IMF, inflation, Mexico, Philips Curve, spending, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on June 8, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Martin Sommer, Juan Treviño, and Neil Hickey
Version in عربي (Arabic)
The significant and prolonged drop in oil prices since mid-2014 has changed the fortunes of many energy-exporting nations around the world. This applies particularly to countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, because these regions are home to 11 of the world’s top 20 energy exporters.
Filed under: Central Asia, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, trade | Tagged: budget deficits, Central Asia, energy prices, exchange rate, exports, fiscal policy, growth, Gulf countries, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, oil, oil exporters, oil prices | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 5, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Rahul Anand, Kalpana Kochhar, and Saurabh Mishra
The expansion of India’s exports of services between 1990 and 2013 has been nothing short of spectacular, putting India on a par with the world’s high-income economies in terms of service-product sophistication and as a share of total exports. This has created unique opportunities for continued growth. By contrast, when it comes to exports of manufactured goods, India has lagged behind its emerging-markets peers, both in quality and as a percentage of the total export basket, leaving substantial room for improvement.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, developing countries, Emerging Markets, India, International Monetary Fund, trade, U.S. | Tagged: advanced economies, East Asia, emerging markets, exports, IMF, iMFdirect blog, India, International Monetary Fund, low-income countries, Middle East, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on December 21, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Wenjie Chen and Roger Nord
(Versions in عربي, 中文, Français, Português, and Español)
China’s President Xi Jinping’s recent pledge of US$60 billion in financial support over the next three years illustrates the depth of the partnership between China and Africa.
However, China’s shift from an investment-heavy, export led growth strategy to an economic model that relies more on domestic consumption has led to a dramatic decline in commodity prices. Lower commodity prices and lower volumes of trade have hit sub-Saharan Africa’s commodity exporters hard. But over the medium term, this shift may offer sub-Saharan African countries the opportunity to diversify their economies away from natural resources, and create jobs for their young populations, provided they pursue the right policies to foster competitiveness and integrate into global value chains.
Filed under: Africa, China, growth, International Monetary Fund, Investment, Transition | Tagged: China, commodities, export diversification, exports, foreign direct investment, IMF, imports, investment, Sub-Saharan Africa, trade | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 27, 2015 by iMFdirect
By James Daniel and Rachel van Elkan
Since mid-2014, diversity and divergence—applying to countries’ economic situations, policies and performance—have dominated global economic discussions. Differing economic performance in major advanced countries has led to divergent monetary policies.
Both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have started significant expansions of their balance sheets, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has ended its bond-buying program and is expected to start raising rates. This has had many effects, in particular, contributing to a sharp depreciation of the Yen and the Euro against the U.S. dollar (see chart 1).
Filed under: Asia, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Europe, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: Australia, Bank of Japan, capital flows, China, European Central Bank, exchange rate, exports, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, macroprudential policy, Malaysia, monetary policy, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, trade, U.S. Federal Reserve | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 25, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan
(Versión en español)
Today’s Pop Quiz: What do Oregon and New Mexico have in common? What could possibly link the spectacular vistas of Crater Lake to the glistening White Sands?
Answer: One link is these two states have the highest share of computer and electronic production in the entire United States. Think Intel in the Silicon Forest or Los Alamos. They also rank similarly in information technology usage by their businesses.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Financial Crisis, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund | Tagged: consumption, exports, human capital, investment, Labor, labor force, technology, U.S., United States | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 24, 2014 by iMFdirect
By Antoinette M. Sayeh
(Version in Français)
Once again, the latest review of growth prospects for sub-Saharan Africa shows that the region’s economy is in strong health. Growth in the region is set to pick up to 5½ percent in 2014 compared to 4.9 percent last year (see Chart 1). My view is that this growth momentum will continue over the medium term if countries rise to new challenges and manage their economies as dexterously as they have over the past decade or so.
So what explains this continued strong growth performance? Apart from good macroeconomic policies in the region, the growth has been underpinned by investment in infrastructure, mining, and strong agricultural output. And favorable global tailwinds—high demand for commodities and low interest rates—have played a major supporting role.
Filed under: Africa, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, Employment, Financial Crisis, Français, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries, Português | Tagged: China, Democratic Republic of Congo, exports, fiscal policy, infrastructure, investment, Liberia, public finances, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Sudan, spillover effects, Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia | Leave a comment »