Posted on May 25, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Carlos Caceres and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos
Versions in Português (Portuguese) and Español (Spanish)
The rapid increase in Latin American corporate debt—fueled by an abundance of cheap foreign money during the past decade—has contributed to an increase in corporate risk. Total debt of nonfinancial firms in Latin America increased from US$170 billion in 2010 to US$383 billion in 2015. With potential growth across countries in the region slowing, in line with the end of the commodity supercycle, it will now be more difficult for firms to operate under increased debt burdens and reduced safety margins.
In this environment, Latin American firms are walking a tightrope. With external financial conditions tightening, the walk towards the other side—notably through adjustment and deleveraging—while necessary, has become riskier. After making good progress, the crossing has also become more perilous due to strong headwinds—including slower global demand and bouts of heightened market volatility. Continue reading
Filed under: Emerging Markets, Fiscal, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Latin America | Tagged: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Corporate Risk, credit default swaps, financial volatility, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Mexico, Panama, Peru | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 22, 2016 by iMFdirect
- Alejandro Werner
By Alejandro Werner
(Versions in Español and Português)
It’s been a rough start to 2016, as seen by the recent bouts of financial volatility, stemming from uncertainties related to the slowdown in China, lower commodity prices, and divergent monetary policy in advanced economies.
The global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, with strains in some large emerging market economies weighing on growth prospects. For Latin America and the Caribbean, growth in 2016 is now expected to be negative for the second consecutive year—the first time since the debt crisis of 1982–83, which triggered the “lost decade” for the region (see table). Continue reading
Filed under: Caribbean, Economic outlook, growth, IMF, Latin America | Tagged: Caribbean, Central Am, commodity prices, financial volatility, growth, IMF, Latin America, macroeconomic imbalances, Mercosur, oil prices, South America | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 15, 2015 by iMFdirect
By Vitor Gaspar
Does fiscal policy respond systematically to economic activity? Can fiscal policy promote macroeconomic stability? Does greater stability support stronger growth? The answer is yes on all counts. This finding, while seemingly obvious, is now backed by numbers to match each question. The April 2015 Fiscal Monitor explores how.
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic Crisis, Economic outlook, Economic research, Employment, Finance, Financial Crisis, Fiscal, Fiscal policy, growth, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Reform | Tagged: advanced economies, financial volatility, Fiscal Monitor, fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, fiscal stabilization, macroeconomic stability, public finances | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 20, 2011 by iMFdirect
By Olivier Blanchard
(Versions in عربي, Français, Español and Русский)
The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase. The recovery has weakened considerably, and downside risks have increased sharply. Strong policies are urgently needed to improve the outlook and reduce risks.
Growth, which had been strong in 2010, decreased in 2011. We had forecast some slowdown, due mainly to fiscal consolidation. One-time events, such as the tragic earthquake in Japan, offered plausible explanations for a further slowdown. The initial U.S. data also understated the size of the slowdown. Now that the numbers are in, it is clear that more was going on. Continue reading
Filed under: Advanced Economies, Economic outlook, Economic research, Emerging Markets, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Low-income countries | Tagged: bank balance sheets, bank capital, bank lending, current account deficits, current accout surpluses, downside risks, economic forecasts, economic rebalancing, external rebalancing, financial volatility, fiscal consolidation, IMF, iMFdirect, International Monetary Fund, low growth, medium-term fiscal consolidation, Olivier Blanchard, private demand, public debt, public deficits, sovereign bonds, weak balance sheets, World Economic Outlook, world growth | 14 Comments »